Progressives have long been skeptical of “grassroots” movement born with a rant on corporate media and promoted by folks like former House majority leader, Dick Army, and a bevy of right-wing billionaires. But that hasn’t stopped the right-wing from claiming the Tea Party is “surprising new political force” out to upset the status quo. So which is it? Surprise, surprise!
Beginning in 2006 we interviewed a representative sample of 3,000 Americans as part of our continuing research into national political attitudes, and we returned to interview many of the same people again this summer. As a result, we can look at what people told us, long before there was a Tea Party, to predict who would become a Tea Party supporter five years later. We can also account for multiple influences simultaneously — isolating the impact of one factor while holding others constant.
Our analysis casts doubt on the Tea Party’s “origin story.” Early on, Tea Partiers were often described as nonpartisan political neophytes. Actually, the Tea Party’s supporters today were highly partisan Republicans long before the Tea Party was born, and were more likely than others to have contacted government officials. In fact, past Republican affiliation is the single strongest predictor of Tea Party support today. Continue reading “T is for Theocrat”