Warwick hit particularly hard by beach closures


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Oakland Beach, 2012
Oakland Beach, 2012

Oakland Beach is a bustling, if out-of-the-way, summertime economic engine on Greenwich Bay in Warwick. There’s a popular clam shack, some sit down places, a few mini-marts and even a Harley Davidson dealer … all of which are in business to make money off those spending a summer day at the beach.

Meanwhile, the beach here has been closed to swimming for almost all of July and 24 days in total since mid-June.

Oakland Beach is the poster child for why beach closures matter to the Ocean State. This community’s economy, like so many in Rhode Island, ebbs and flows with the strength or weakness of summer. But Oakland Beach’s proximity to suburbia and its calm, warm waters have become it’s biggest detriments. These conditions are a perfect storm for a beach too polluted to swim at.

The issue is widespread in Warwick, where local beaches have been closed or almost 50 days in total this summer. From 2000 to 2012, according to health department data, Conimicut Point in Warwick has been closed more than any other beach in the state, with 230 days. Oakland Beach is second with 190 closed days. City Park in Warwick had its beach closed 119 times since 2000 and Goddard Park has been closed 110 times. There are only two other beaches in the state that have been closed more than 100 days during that time.

This is why Save The Bay has invited state legislators and Warwick Mayor Scott Avedesian here for a press event.

The great divide


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do-the-right-thingRecently, the Pew Research Center released some interesting polling information regarding race and the Zimmerman trial. In short, there was a significant difference between how white people and black people viewed the event. While 80 percent of blacks thought that Trayvon Martin’s killing brought up concerns about race, 28 percent of whites felt the same way. 60 percent of whites feel that race is “getting more attention than it deserves”. Statistics are what they are, but the ingredients that go into their making make for a serious discussion. How come the wide gap between viewpoints?

Could it be that African Americans like to play the race card? Perhaps white folks are racists? Maybe the liberals are putting blacks down by keeping them on the system with handouts. Then again, maybe conservatives do not care and are just trying to maintain an economic advantage. These all or nothing attitudes and statements are endless.

Jingoism abounds in regards to race. Some claim that President Obama is a race baiter, while others assert that things are just as bad as ever. Conservatives point to a number of blacks who have made it as examples of all you have to do is work hard. Many liberals still throw names like George Wallace and Strom Thurmond around when comparing the actions of some today to the past. Round and round we go. Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Al Sharpton and others are having a blast.

If we all could step back a bit maybe it would become more apparent that many folks are not really listening to each other. Sometimes there is so much to say – we leave little time to hear.

Most white folks I know do not consider themselves racists. Sure, some fall into that 60 percent I mentioned earlier, but for the most part they do not wish harm on African Americans. In addition, a common lament from some whites is that they didn’t have anything to do with slavery or not letting Blacks drink out of a water fountain. For many, they see great change. They see Obama. They see some successful black people on TV, as co-workers and in positions of power. All too often when black people claim unfairness, or racism, many white people feel they are being blamed. That is when their defenses come up. Nobody wants to be considered a racist or bigot.

Black people, on the other hand, cannot help but refer to 350 years of institutionalized racism. It was not so long ago when they were denied voting privileges. It was not so long ago when George Wallace was the Governor of Alabama (and a Presidential Candidate). It was not so long ago when folks who committed crimes against them skated. Many still feel a sense of mistrust.

Of course, ot all whites are racists. And equally obvious is that not all black people hate white people. At the issue’s core are fear, mistrust and years of stereotypes. These have led to distance and distance often breeds misconception.

The Zimmerman case clearly illustrates differing viewpoints between blacks and whites regarding race. What is more subtle however is how those views impact our courts (often to the detriment of blacks). To some extent we have deluded ourselves into believing that our systems are fair. The court system is controlled by white people. It favors those with money (meeting parole, hiring lawyers). The system, being created by human beings, also carries the prejudices and foibles of the species. Sure our legal system is better than most. With this said, it needs some fine-tuning when it comes to race. In fact, the justice system does what it does fairly well. The problem here is that it is rigged before it starts.

Race matters in subtle ways. It matters because we continue to make it so by not really listening and respecting. When we go to our corners with old beliefs nothing changes. We have to let people own their feelings.

Saying that black people should ‘just get over it’ is ridiculous. Saying that they should not feel pain, marginalized, or leery of the legal system, is not taking into account their experience. For them it is visceral. There can be no denying our nation’s long history of troubled race relations.

Saying white people are racists or do not care is equally unfair. Many do care and make concerted efforts to learn more and also lend a hand. All white people don’t live with ‘silver spoons’. They also cannot undo history. The benefits they have gained are not their fault. Recognizing those benefits and promoting fairness for all, should be a civic goal. We need to look at how our institutions could be used to address this. Before doing so we have to look at ourselves.

Perhaps we can begin by really listening to each other. Along with this comes a validation of feelings and points of view. Many have already formulated answers before hearing the questions. In doing so we are denying soul liberty by forcing people to think like us. In many ways that is the direction racism has gone today. Denying an issue will only make it come out sideways.

The fact that there is a great divide should surprise few of us. Divides can be bridged. Divides can also be explained or traversed. It is up to us if it continues to be something that keeps people apart.

2010 election revisited: gubernatorial results (Part 11 of MMP RI)

Because of the problem with the districts, let’s take a step back and look at the 2010 election again. The 2010 election is unique, because it features two statewide races with Moderate Party candidates. The first race, the gubernatorial election, is atypical. It features a well-known independent and a weak Democrat combined with this third party candidate and a somewhat typical Republican challenger. The second race, for Attorney General is slightly less atypical, with a winning Democrat, a Republican challenger, and a Moderate, plus two independents who do reasonably well.

The reason I’m focusing on these races is because they might give us an idea about what an MMP election might look like in Rhode Island with a party list vote. If you’ll remember, when MMP elections don’t rely on district results, there’s a separate ballot question asking what party a voter prefers. It’s like a statewide election for party, with the effect that it’ll change the party proportions in the chambers.

Let’s look at the gubernatorial election.

2010 MMP Election Using Gubernatorial Results

2010 Gov Election
Voter percentages from 2010. DEM = Democratic Party, GOP = Republican Party, IND = Independent, MOD = Moderate Party. Due to rounding, not all percentages will add up to 100% (via Samuel G. Howard)

I like to think of this as the worst-case scenario for Democrats. First, I’ve removed all the independent voters, simply because it’s hard to simply declare they’d go to the Democratic Party. This means we’re looking solely at the votes that the Democrats, Republicans, and Moderates received. And there weren’t that many for Democrats.

Once again, the districts favor the Democrats. They win handily there, 65 seats in the House and 30 seats in the Senate. However, they have a terribly weak performance in the party list vote. In our alternate history version, we might speculate that in 2010 the depressed turnout of Democratic voters combined with Republican enthusiasm to increase the percentage of Republican votes.

The results in the districts allow Democrats to retain power disproportionate to what the D’Hondt method gives them. The D’Hondt method awards 55 seats to the Democrats in the House, but they win 65 in the districts. That means no one from their list makes it into the House. Republicans have a different result, with 7 out of 8 of their representatives from the list.

Both chambers result in overhang thanks to institutional Democratic advantage and the presence of Sen. O’Neill. What this leaves us with is a House with a Republican plurality (exactly 50%) and a Senate with a slight Republican majority. It’s impossible for either of the two biggest parties to form a veto-proof majority without being joined by many members of other parties. In the House, at least, there needs to be a coalition leadership team. It’s either a Republican-Moderate coalition which fails to give a veto-proof supermajority, or it’s a Grand Coalition between Democrats and Republicans. So it’s probably going to be the former, but the longer MMP lasts, the more likely the latter might get (difficult as it is to imagine now).

In many ways, this is not a good position for the Moderates (despite the fact they’re in the General Assembly). Being a junior member of a coalition is a troubling position to be in, especially when much of the Moderate brand is attempting to say that they’re not Republicans (witness the Liberal Democrats in the UK). On the other hand, should they refuse to sign a coalition agreement in the House, it’ll be easy to portray them as being responsible for that chamber’s instability.

And instability ultimately seems likely to happen. With slim majority control in one chamber and a coalition in the other, Republicans would be forced to find the broad consensus in their decision-making very quickly. It’s a lot easier to whip 10 representatives than to whip 80, and Republicans have never had to whip a majority of a chamber to pass legislation since they last were in power. They’d have to learn fast.

Part of what makes the Democratic Party so effective in its control of the General Assembly is that it usually knows how to shunt aside irrepressible dissenters and how to bring along just enough people to have a large majority. This is what made the failure of the pension amendment to the budget such a surprise. The Democratic leadership doesn’t get blindsided, they blindside others.

Those effective masters of parliamentary maneuver don’t disappear either. They’d be out there causing trouble for Republicans. And with so many new legislators in their caucuses, Republicans would have a hard time keeping any dissenters from breaking ranks.

RI GA apportioned according to the D'Hondt method using 2010 Gubernatorial results. (via Samuel G. Howard)
RI GA apportioned according to the D’Hondt method using 2010 Gubernatorial results. (via Samuel G. Howard)

 

This is Part 11 of the MMP RI series, which posits what Rhode Island’s political landscape would look like if we had switched to a mixed-member proportional representation (MMP) system in 2002. Part 10 (a discussion of limitations) is available here. Part 12 is another look at the Election of 2010 using the Attorney General results.

Join me for a neighborhood conversation next week


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cicilline primary victoryNext week, I am coming home to host the first two of several neighborhood conversations about the challenges we face across this great state, and I wanted to make sure RI Future readers knew about next week’s events in Woonsocket and Bristol.

As your voice in Congress, it is critical that I hear directly from you on the challenges we face and how my office can better serve you. That’s why I look forward to discussing a wide range of topics with you including my jobs and manufacturing agenda for Rhode Island, protecting the guarantee of Medicare and Social Security, honoring our responsibilities to our veterans, keeping student loan rates low, and achieving comprehensive immigration reform.

I’d also like to share with you some additional information about the services my office can provide to help you better navigate federal agencies as well as how to access important services provided by the federal government. Please join me at one or both of the following Neighborhood Conversations:

For more information, please call my office at 729-5600 or email me at David.Cicilline@mail.house.gov. Thanks and I look forward to seeing you next week in Woonsocket or Bristol.