The making of a Wall Street Democrat


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hedge fund timelineRaimondomania has turned into Raimondomageddon.

The quarterback of pension politics was revered by the right in 2012, winning praise from the Manhattan Institute, ALEC and the Wall Street Journal among others. But 2013 has been a political lynching from the left – with Ted Siedle, Matt Taibbi, David Sirota and more all calling her signature accomplishment a wealth transfer to Wall Street.

To help keep track of all the out-of-town media attention, I made this timeline. It’s still a work in progress, so let me know if I’ve omitted any in the comments below and I’ll update as warranted. The tool on the right controls the view of the timeline.

People’s Pledge: Let’s give it a try

KerryWeldIn 1996 incumbent John Kerry and Governor William Weld were headed toward an epic showdown for the U.S. Senate in Massachusetts. Closely matched as candidates, they knew spending in their upcoming race could break records. In a novel twist the candidates themselves sat down and negotiated an agreement to limit the total amount that could be spent by the campaigns (including from their personal fortunes), their respective parties, and outside groups. They also agreed to a series of televised debates throughout the state. Although the spending caps broke down in the final days, the race was a watershed moment for campaign finance.

Fast-forward to 2012 and incumbent Senator Scott Brown reached out to challenger Elizabeth Warren (read the actual correspondence) and challenged her to enter a People’s Pledge. Modeled after the Weld-Kerry agreement it included limits on outside spending (it’s notable that no one is talking about limiting total expenditures any more—Citizens United changed the political landscape and dialogue). After significant back and forth, both candidates signed on and even sent notice to third party groups and TV stations that might run their ads, warning them to stay out of the race.

Common Cause Massachusetts reported that the 2012 People’s Pledge did a great job at minimizing outside money in the Brown-Warren race when compared to similar races that year. We know that outside spending is overwhelmingly negative, can come from undisclosed sources, and can be raised in unlimited amounts. In 2013 when the Gomez-Markey race did not have a pledge outside spending from right and left came flooding back in.

So here we are in neighboring Rhode Island looking at the prospect of a very expensive Democratic primary, followed by a very short, but quite-possibly expensive, general election for governor in 2014. Typically races for governor aren’t fought on the national issues that draws outside groups into Senate races but that may be different this time.

Common Cause Rhode Island would like to see all candidates for governor negotiate a People’s Pledge.  We mentioned the idea over a month ago when the first self-described Super PAC emerged.  Sam Howard wrote about the idea at length on RI Future soon after.  Quite frankly, we were waiting for the candidates to actually declare before we began to push for an agreement.

So now the cat is out of the bag.  As a non-partisan group that does not engage in electioneering it would be easy to just let the topic die.  We do not want to be seen as favoring any candidate over another.  But this is too important a topic.  Rhode Island deserves a campaign in 2014 that will focus on issues, not attacks. We deserve to know where the money that is backing the candidates is coming from. For those reasons we are asking the would-be candidates to meet and discuss this idea.

This won’t be easy.  Massachusetts has demonstrated that these agreements might take some time to work out, but that they can work.  Each candidate has strengths and weaknesses when it comes to campaign finance and the negotiations should address those.  As the Supreme Court dismantles limits on money in politics (and next it might be limits on contributions directly to candidates) we need to look to alternatives.  The People’s Pledge may be our best hope.  Let’s give it a try.

NRA PAC leaves RI politics


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The local political action committee for NRA has gone away, according to the state Board of Elections. And Sam Bell of the Rhode Island Progressive Democrats thinks it might be because his group filed a campaign finance complaint against them.

“As far as we are aware, the Board of Elections has yet to issue a formal ruling, but we view this move as confirmation of the seriousness of the violations we have alleged,” Bell said in an email. “We hope that the Board will issue appropriate fines after a thorough and complete investigation.”

According to records, the NRA Political Victory Fund dissolved on September 26. In September the RI Progressive Democrats filed a complaint alleging that the local NRA PAC is lying on campaign disclosure forms when it claims to have received at least 1,500 donations of $100 or less.

Ric Thonton, who oversees campaign finance matters for the Board of Elections, said he could neither confirm nor comment on investigations. But he did say, “the dissolution of a PAC does not prevent it from being investigated.”

Rhode Island isn’t known as a hotbed of gun rights, but it has been a hotbed of gun politics lately. Republicans were embarrassed for raffling off an assault rifle at a gun club fundraiser and Exeter Town Councilors are facing a recall election for outsourcing handgun permitting to the state police. Meanwhile, both Providence and the state are divesting from investments in guns.

NRAPACClosureScannedForm

 

Rhode Island is Arizona


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We are all ArizonaNow that yet another debt ceiling debacle is behind us, it’s time for Congress and the White House to again focus its attention on immigration reform, says a coalition of Rhode Island urban advocacy groups known collectively as “We are all Arizona.” They holding a rally at the State House Thursday and across the country activists are celebrating a “week of dignity and respect.”

Jhanet Cabrera, of the Olneyville Neighborhood Association, said, “Deporter-in-Chief Obama continues to call for immigration reform, but it’s time for him to put his money where his mouth is,” , one of the local organizations calling on the POTUS to renew the nation’s focus on immigration reform. “With the stroke of a pen, the man who has deported more immigrants than any other president – 2 million and counting – could suspend all deportations pending passage of immigration reform.”

Juan Garcia, of the Committee of Immigrants in Action, added: “For years, the human rights of immigrants – our dignity and respect – have been trampled upon. Today, as we find ourselves on the brink of passing immigration reform, we say to the politicians in Washington, D.C. that we will not tolerate failure. If they don’t pass reform, we’ll make them pay at the polls.”

The press conference follows a forum and march earlier in the month. The coalition thanked Congressman David Cicilline for attending the event. They also thanked Providence mayoral candidate Brett Smiley for marching with them.

Providence pioneered gun divestment in RI


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Far be it for RI Future to give Gina Raimondo credit for an initiative pioneered in Providence but that’s exactly what I did yesterday when I applauded her for suggesting the state divest from guns. The State Investment Commission did vote to stop investing in a company that sells guns yesterday, but the Capital City voted to divest from guns back on March 18.

“The City Council has a moral responsibility to ensure that no public money is being used in the manufacture of weapons that are endangering public safety,” said the resolution passed by the Council. “Now, therefore, be it resolved, that the Providence City Councîl does hereby urge the Providence Boaïd of Investment Commissioners to continue its review of the pension investments to determine whether or not its portfolio includes equity firms that have holdings in companies that manufaeîure assauìî weapons and divest from any such firms.”

PVD Gun Divestment

 

Interview: Gayle Goldin on election year lawmaking (Part 3)


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Freshman Sen. Gayle Goldin (Democrat, District 3 – Providence) won national praise for Rhode Island this session when she helped shepherd through legislation that expanded the state’s Temporary Disability Insurance to cover workers who need to take time to care for a new addition to the family or a seriously ill relative. Recently, she was kind enough to sit down with RI Future for a wide-ranging interview. The following transcript has been lightly edited for written media.

Read Part 1 here.
Read Part 2 here.

TDI-gayle goldinRI Future: Given that that would actually be a pretty controversial move in 2014, I’ve heard observers cynically remark that nothing big happens in an election year in the General Assembly, what’s your opinion on that kind of sentiment?

Gayle Goldin: I think big pieces of legislation pass when there’s the will to get them done. The value of an election year is that it’s an opportunity for constituents to be even more engaged with their elected officials and share with them their ideas about what is really important to them.

RIF: Given that 2014 will be an election year, if it yields a governor elected as a Democrat, do you think that relationship between the governor and the General Assembly will change much?

GG: I feel like as a new member of the Senate I can’t really talk too authoritatively about that, certainly I have worked with Chafee’s staff on my legislation this year, I have worked with different parts of the administration on that legislation, and I would assume that would continue, but I don’t really know all the levels of relationship. I only know my personal experience.

RIF: 2014 is also likely to see a vote on whether we have a constitutional convention, what are your thoughts on that?

GG: Our last constitutional convention was 1986, which is before I moved here. I have spoken to a lot of advocates about their opposition to having a constitutional convention. One of the things I really understand from those conversations is the level of risk to important issues that can come up through the process. I went back and looked at the ballot questions from 1986 and you can see how important issues, like reproductive rights, can be at risk during a constitutional convention. I think we can really see how many issues that are important to the progressive community come up to play and can be manipulated inappropriately through this process, given the amount of money that could now come into the state to sway the outcome of the convention.

Julian days and Healthcare.gov


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julian daysThere is a great deal of gnashing of teeth going on about healthcare.gov, the Obamacare portal for people who live in a state that refused to create its own exchange.  I’m sure that some of the well-reported woes of the web site are deserved, but it seems fairly obvious that a large number of the commenters, and the complainers, have little idea what they are talking about.

I have no direct knowledge of the software behind healthcare.gov, neither of the team behind it, or the technologies they are using.  But I do have some expertise in web sites, software, and data management, acquired over 28 years consulting in the software industry at many different companies, and there are some things that are being said that are just plain wrong.

To begin with, the health care exchange is not “just” a web site.  It is a system that has to communicate data between lots of different insurance company databases very quickly.  You can’t get a quote from a dozen different insurance companies to appear in any other way.  This means that a dozen different insurance company databases have to be equipped to provide that kind of real-time response to a query.

To anyone who has spent time thinking about data, this is already the knell of trouble.  To anyone who is counting how many insurance companies in how many states this system must deal with, this sounds much worse.

First, a tale.  Back in the early days of working with data, I ran across a measure of time you frequently see in science data, the “Julian” day.  The idea here is that dealing with months and years is kind of a pain when you want to draw a graph, so let’s just number the days from the first year and ignore the months and years, and things will be much simpler.  It’s not a terrible idea, until you want to exchange your data with someone else.

At that point, you discover that you were counting days from January 1, in the year 1, and they were counting them from the year zero.  You point out that there wasn’t a year zero, but they say it makes the math work out better. Or you discover that you were using the days as a measure, so that day 2.5 means noon of the third day, whereas they said that day 2 was the second day and day 2.5 is nonsense.  Or you discover that though it says Julian days, they were counting leap years on the Gregorian calendar so your counts are two weeks off theirs.  Or you discover that you were using local time, and they were using Greenwich time. Or you find yourself looking at satellite data, where measurements can be taken from two or three different days within any 24-hour period.

I ran across this issue because for a number of years I contributed to a science data project, meant to normalize access to a whole lot of oceanographic and other earth science data.  Even beyond questions of data units, there were structural problems with interoperability, too.  There were two widely-used data sources in that project that, given the constraints involved, turned out to be impossible to reconcile.  Which is astonishing, since they were data measuring more or less the same things about the oceans.  But one of them had been created by scientists who believed the data ought to be accessed a small bite at a time while the other had been created by scientists who believed you should get big chunks at a time.  

These guys had made design decisions early on that made working together utterly impossible, and with the best will in the world, the two could not be reconciled to work in real time without one team essentially scrapping its original design and putting in a lot of work while the other team sat around and waited for them.  Try as they might, there was no middle ground because neither one wanted to give up their design.

These are some of the lessons I learned:

  1. In data, even when people are talking about the same thing, they’re not necessarily talking about the same thing.
  2. Even when people want to work together, design decisions made in the distant past might make it difficult.  
  3. When two teams have to choose between their approaches, there is very seldom middle ground.  One team gets to do all the work to convert to the other’s approach, while the other team sits around and makes snide comments.
  4. No engineer thinks another engineer’s approach to a problem is worth a dime. 

Now think about trying to resolve problems like this among a few hundred databases run by insurance companies who are not necessarily going to be the most cooperative folks out there.  Think about it: you’re an insurance company IT executive and the healthcare.gov folks ask you if you might change the format of your data reporting to coordinate with the other companies in your state.  Your immediate response?  Why should we change and not them?  That’s more work for us and besides our system was designed better.

So not only are the healthcare.gov folks working against a few hundred different design decisions, but they’re also counting on having been able to anticipate all the data entry errors that might be lurking in hundreds of databases out there, and hoping that everyone has decent support staff, too.  

On top of that, healthcare.gov also has to interact with a handful of databases from other government departments, so there are similar problems on that end.  For those who sneer that the private sector would have gotten it right, let me tell you another time about my work on the airline reservation system that never got built, or the credit card database whose books didn’t balance, or the speech recognition system that couldn’t distinguish between “pizza” and “tractor.” 

In other words, big systems are complicated.  It is a scandal that the federal exchange isn’t ready yet, but no one should underestimate the social, technical, and management challenges faced by the team putting it together.  When you hear someone who says healthcare.gov is “just” a web site, you are hearing someone who does not care to understand the problem.

The good news is that there is little reason to doubt that most of the problems will find workarounds soon.  The issues are difficult, but the need is there to resolve them, and they will be resolved.  By this time next year, the glitches will be a memory, and it often seems that is what some of the critics fear most.

Maybe later, People’s Pledge


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taveras btwYes, I was smiling when I read the news that Angel Taveras had called for a People’s Pledge in the RI Democratic Primary for Governor. Common Cause RI pointed to the study by Common Cause MA that the 2012 People’s Pledge for the race between Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown reduced the amount of influence of outside groups in the election.

Then, I read Gina Raimondo’s response: we’ve already been attacked by special interests, donate the full amount AFSCME paid for the Seidle Report. I may have boiled it down a bit.

My initial thought was “savvy move, Raimondo, savvy move.” Except when I pause to think about it, it’s not really. Taveras has already been attacked as well; notably in totally unfocused ones by the American LeadHERship PAC that couldn’t decided whether the mayor was a political insider or a political novice. Taveras could’ve opened his push for a People’s Pledge by suggesting that would be a place to start for Raimondo, but he didn’t. Which is rather congenial, considering those were nutty political attacks.

It appears that the harrowing few weeks of negative press from progressive left media like Salon and Rolling Stone and the center-leftish The New York Times on pension reform (something which Raimondo could’ve foreseen when she started accepting awards from right-wing think tanks) have raised hackles in the Treasurer’s camp (after decades of ignoring them, suddenly every Rhode Islander is an expert on investing pensions).

Asking Taveras to donate money for something AFSCME is independently angry about makes as much sense as Taveras suggesting Raimondo donate the People’s Pledge amount of the attacks on him over the Davey Lopes pool. When you make decisions that are part of your office, criticism of you by the people effected is expected (and justified). Just because you’re about the engage in political campaigning doesn’t mean you get to wave a wand and say “politically-motivated, don’t have to listen.” You take it, even if it sucks.

Political observers are free to read the tea leaves as they will. I’m sure pro-Raimondo partisans will read this as a political ploy on the Mayor’s part, attempting to handicap the Raimondo campaign (who seems most likely to benefit from outside spending). Pro-Taveras partisans will read this as unease on the part of the Treasurer, who even with a nearly 3:1 money advantage may be unsure if she can win a Democratic primary likely to tilt to the left without outside help.

I’m sure people think I’m marked in the Taveras camp because I write for RI Future and other reasons. But I want to be clear. I don’t see much, policy-wise, that differentiates the two candidates. I think Gov. Raimondo will make policy choices that a Gov. Taveras would also make, and vice versa. I wasn’t just calling for a People’s Pledge in this post last month, I was calling for a substantive (and civil) debate on issues. For one thing, I’d like for the RI Democratic Party to have a primary that wasn’t just a referendum on whether the 2011 pension reform is popular among Democratic-affiliated voters and Democratic primary-voting unaffiliateds.

What it appears to me is that there seems to be a personal animus between the candidates and their camps, which is more likely to scuttle anything than other issues. Which is why I fully expect this primary to devolve, though I sincerely wish it wouldn’t. Rhode Islanders deserve a good campaign focused on things more than bloody socks and telling the President to shove it.

Perhaps whoever triumphs in the Democratic primary will find candidates more receptive in the general election to a People’s Pledge, if this one sinks (Common Cause RI has already called for a general election People’s Pledge). Or maybe we’ll have to rely on down-ticket races to act as pathfinders for the big races and establish a tradition of People’s Pledges. As Rhode Islanders well know, an established tradition can be a powerful tool in enforcing compliance in a practice.

 

P.S. There’s also a media issue here, which is that discussion of the People’s Pledge gives the media a chance to remind us about the ol’ campaign finance scoreboard and tell us what it told us earlier this month. Guess what folks, we’re not voting on whether we prefer the $2 million candidate or the $690K candidate! Cash on hand does not equal a good governor.