November 5, 2014

Democrats party at the Biltmore

Raimondo 002 When Gina Raimondo took the stage as a newly minted governor elect, she pledge to build a government in Rhode Island that works for everyone, not just connected insiders. Was this mere rhetoric, or a shot across the bow of Speaker of the House Nicholas Mattiello, who presides over the Harwood/Murphy/Fox machine, the ultimate black box of Rhode Island politics?

There are things Raimondo and the other statewide office holders have said they want to do, such as repeal voter I.D., raise the minimum wage to $15, reform Rhode Island’s gun laws, tackle the issue of racial profiling and restrict the interest on usurious payday loans, (to name only a few) but tackling these issues in an even more conservative General Assembly seems an uphill climb.

Gorbea 001 The Grand Ballroom of the Providence Biltmore was the wrong place for these kind of thoughts last night as the Rhode Island Democratic Party rocketed to victory in all the big races. Last night was a celebration. Representative David Cicilline, stepping off stage after delivering his victory speech, rushed back to the podium, a huge smile on his face, to announce Nellie Gorbea’s Secretary of State win to a cheering crowd. Treasurer elect Seth Magaziner’s victory speech was short and sweet and Lt. Governor elect Dan McKee’s speech went on way too long, but the best speeches came from Gorbea and Raimondo.

The night was not without suspense. There was a collective sigh of relief when channels 10 and 12 called the Providence mayoral race for Jorge Elorza, preventing the embarrassment and inevitable scandals of a third Cianci administration (for the next four years anyway, will a 77 year old Buddy try again in 2018?) Elorza was obviously pleased: I’ve never seen him so relaxed and at ease. He has a tough four years ahead of him, and he’ll be working with a City Council with more than a few new faces and a new, yet to be determined Council President.

Elorza 003 Passing by almost unnoticed was the defeat of Proposition 3, which would have called for a Constitutional Convention. The measure failed despite a drumbeat of support from the Providence Journal. I credit the hard work and enormous talent of anti-ConCon campaign coordinator Jenny Norris, but I’ll throw a special shout out here to Mike Stenhouse, of the RI Center for Freedom and Prosperity, who helped tank the idea by inviting Grover Norquist to Rhode Island in support of the measure.

Perhaps voters intuited something about this election that both supporters and opponents of the ConCon missed: this election will have a big impact on state politics. We have a new Governor, Lt. Governor, Treasurer and Secretary of State. We have very different General Assembly, a new mayor of Providence and a different Providence City Council. As a state we just voted in a lot of change, (not all for the better in my opinion but change nonetheless) and the addition of a ConCon was just a step too far.

What is sure is that the future of this state depends as much on organization and advocacy from the public as it does on its shiny new political leaders. This state is only going to get better if we hold these new political leaders accountable.

November 5, 2014November 5, 2014

Did RI move right or left last night?

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Congratulations, Gina Raimondo! You’ll soon be Rhode Island’s 75th governor, and you’ve also broken the so-called glass ceiling to become the Ocean State’s first ever female chief executive.

Raimondo is also the first Democrat Rhode Island has elected governor since 1990. That’s a really long time for a state some call the bluest in the nation. Since hope springs eternal, here’s hoping she will also be the most progressive governor since Frank Licht in the early 1970’s. He’s most famous for “push[ing] through a state income tax to end Rhode Island’s fiscal crises of the 1960’s” and is also said to have “approved more business projects than any other Governor in Rhode Island’s history.”

I’ll be happy if she’s as liberal-leaning as Governor Chafee.

Democrats swept the statewide offices last night, but only two of the five had the endorsement of the RI Progressive Democrats – General Treasurer-elect Seth Magaziner and Secretary of State-elect Nellie Gorbea. Only Magaziner had their endorsement in the primary. Still, most new statewide officers will move their newly acquired positions left with the noticeable exception of Dan McKee, who will replace Elizabeth Roberts as the lt. governor.

So does Rhode Island have many conservative Democrats, as the New York Times reported this weekend? Or is there a liberal majority in the Ocean State that doesn’t know how to play nice in the sandbox with each other? It’s pretty easy to argue that he greatest strengths of the Raimondo campaign turned out to be Clay Pell and Bob Healey.

Bob Healey was the big winner last night and, once again, is officially a Rhode Island cult hero. He spent $35 and won 22 percent of the vote. That’s amazingly hopeful news if you hate money in politics. He’s the ’73 PC Friars of Campaign 2014 – the irreverent underdog who broke all the rules and maybe, just maybe, could have even beaten the dynasty team if they got to go one-on-one.

November 5, 2014November 6, 2014

Ward 3 on the verge of history; write-in Marcus Mitchell ahead

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It is possible that Marcus Mitchell will win the race for Providence City Council Ward 3 with a write-in campaign.

If he does, it will be an historic achievement. Has Providence ever seen such an occurrence?

The preliminary count shows “write-in” with a 22-vote lead over incumbent Kevin Jackson, 1,829 to 1,807. Emergency ballots and mail-in ballots have not yet been counted, and the write-in ballots must be certified. Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck typically receive a few votes in nearly every political contest, and misspellings could also erode Mitchell’s count.

Many in Ward 3 feel that even if Jackson holds on to his seat, he will be a very different councilor. His support for Cianci put him on the wrong side of the electorate, and he must surely know that he will face a vigorous primary challenge in 2018. This race showed him a weak incumbent.

A tale of two turnouts

The single most striking take-away for me was the low turnout in precinct 2818 that includes most of the Camp Street neighborhood. Jackson won this precinct roughly 2:1, but with fewer than 600 votes cast. Compare this to the 2012 election when over 1,600 votes were cast in 2818.

Of course, 2012 was a presidential election and this was a midterm, and redistricting makes a comparison to 2010 impossible. But consider this: precinct 2816 at the north end of the ward cast nearly 1,300 votes compared to about 1,800 votes in 2012.

In other words, turnout in 2816 fell about 1/3 while turnout in 2818 fell by 2/3. The common wisdom said that Camp Street was Jackson’s base of power, but when challenged, he could not turn out the vote. Results from precinct 2880, which includes the northern end of Camp Street, showed tepid activity with fewer than 450 votes cast total.

If Jackson had turned out the vote in these precincts, he would have won handily.

What’s next?

Your Frymaster is in uncharted territory here. I need to find out how and where the ballots will be counted. As always, I’ll let you know what I find.

November 5, 2014November 5, 2014

Cautious celebration

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Providence’s progressive community has a gift – a seemingly honest, if very untested, administration.

Thank you to everyone who voted and worked for a different Providence.

Jorge’s donor list includes dear, dear friends in community work, art, and education, but another swath of Elorza’s supporters are the out of touch developers who help spark the resentment that feeds Cianci.

Providence, like many cities, needs competence- an easy to navigate city hall, transparency, and many day to day infrastructure improvements in schools and parks across the city. There are well placed individuals who will lobby Elorza hard for fantasy plans about street cars for magical wealthy consumers, state subsidized condos, and a million other ways to spend cash downtown, not in the neighborhoods. The challenge for progressives – no, the challenge of all people who care about the city – is how to do good in the next four years.

My late aunt would be impressed.

Maureen Lawlor was a child of Providence – in her 1970s era high school science fair project she was studying the effects pollution on neighborhoods in Providence. After working in adult education in the ACI, she served at the Massachusetts Department of Education before becoming a professor at a community college outside Seattle. When she returned to visit in the early 2000s, around the time of Plunderdome, I remember her ruefully remarking, “It’s like I never left.”

She would be impressed and proud to see that Providence voted for a new chapter, with Jorge Elorza defeating Vincent A Cianci, Jr.

She was also wise. Excited by change, she would likely caution not to get too carried away or hopeful- plan a next step. Her late husband, my Uncle Sherman, definitely would encourage planning ahead.

Like many old mill cities, there is a great agenda awaiting of rebuilding and re-imagining neighborhoods and civic institutions. There are people with goofy plans to spend millions on one side of the highway only -don’t let them.

The campaign for One Providence continues.