Rhode Island’s Future - Revisiting the 2010 Governor's race

Thursday March 11, 2010

Revisiting the 2010 Governor's race

Posted by: Brian Hull in 2010 Governor on February 06, 2010

The WPRI gubernatorial poll numbers came out Friday evening, and they’re much more informative than the Kennedy numbers are. Let’s start with the baseline numbers. If the election was held in late January, here’s what we would have had.

Caprio = 30%, Robitaille = 13%, Chafee = 31%, Not sure = 23%, Refused = 2%
Lynch = 23%, Robitaille = 18%, Chafee = 34%, Not sure = 22%, Refused = 3%

Based on these numbers we can see that Caprio has a strong pull of the more conservative voters that would move to either Chafee of Robitaille if he doesn’t win the Democratic primary. This largely comports with a poll conducted for Chafee in late October that showed Frank Caprio pulling supporters away from Rory Smith (yeah, remember him?). This is something that Patrick Lynch will not be able to do. Caprio is a pretty conservative guy, and Republicans know it (so does everyone else).

Second, while these numbers predict either be a Caprio win or a Chafee win, it is far from settled. We’re 7 months from the primary, and 9 months from the general election, so a lot can happen between now and then. Also, with a quarter of the respondents not sure or refusing to say who they will vote for, it’s a wide open race. Lynch and Robitaille will have their work cut out for them to convert the undecided voters to supporters, but they’re definitely not shut out.

Third, in a three-way race (4-way with the Moderate candidate, 5-way with Todd Giroux), a candidate could pull off a victory with as little as 40% of the vote total, maybe even less depending on how many candidates actually end up in the race and their respective tallies. This could be problematic with regard to legitimacy in governing. If a majority of the voting population ends up casting a ballot for someone other than the winner in November, the new Governor will have to reconcile that (or at least deal with the consequences). Call it the Bill Clinton effect.

A surprising element in the poll was the union household results. Not so much that Chafee gets a little bit more support (35%) than does Lynch (33%) among households with a union member, but that the union household totals don’t really change with Caprio in the race (32% for Caprio and 35% for Chafee). That was pretty startling to me, especially considering Caprio’s willingness to alienate organized labor in the state.

There is also the all-important question of what effect the eventual Moderate Party candidate will have on the race. We all know that the Moderates will need to pull at least 5% of the total vote otherwise they lose their ballot access. Whoever they get will have to be at least a credible candidate (the Moderates have no allusions that they’ll actually win the governorship in November – they just need 5%). We’ll find out in a couple weeks who their gubernatorial candidate will be.

If the Moderates put up a strong candidate with some pretty conservative economic credentials (based on their Party platform), what’s going to separate him/her from Robitaille? Or from Caprio, if he wins the Dem primary? Or even from Chafee? This is a political calculus that everyone in the campaign must be thinking about: what happens when there is a 4-person or 5-person race, and most (if not all) of them are economic conservatives?

Again, here are the candidates:

Frank Caprio (D, maybe R)
Patrick Lynch (D)
Lincoln Chafee (I)
Todd Giroux (I)
John Robitaille (R)
Unknown Moderate Party Candidate

Also, the ProJo has an online poll. You can vote for Governor here.

Tagged in: Todd Giroux , Patrick Lynch , Lincoln Chafee , John Robitaille , Frank Caprio

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I'll tell you what separates the Moderate Party....
written by Evan, February 07, 2010

....from Chafee; Chafee actually has some real solutions for restructuring our tax system. You may not like the ideas he's floated (though I believe a one dollar tax on $100 worth of groceries is no big deal) - but he has laid it on the line. It's ironic that some folks ask for our candidates to have a plan and come out and say it - Chafee has done that.

As far as I can tell, the Moderate Party just represents the status quo - rebranded.

This election year, Democrats should vote Lynch in the Primary, and Chafee in the General.

Just my two cents.

So far I agree Evan with your choices.
written by rasputinkhlyst, February 07, 2010

Nonetheless it is truly sad that this is the best RI can hope for. The media in RI needs to take responsibility for their role in not outing the candidates for conservatives they are, especially in the GA. Failure to do that lets the media continue to blame democratic leaders as a group, while not looking at the strong influence of the blue dog dems and the DINOS.

no plan from these guys
written by forsanri, February 08, 2010

Evan,
a 1% sales tax is not a plan; it's an idea. Just like Caprio, Chafee is "open" to a plan, he just doesn't have any thoughts of his own on the matter.

If all we needed was a 1 percent sales tax, let's get the GA to put it into law and we'll be all set. But we won't.

That sales tax won't slow down foreclosures and won't create jobs. We need a plan for that stuff. Maybe these guys have a plan, but right about now would be a super time to start discussing it.

This poll also didn't include Laffey, and his official entrance into the race throws a grenade into this poll.

-1

Your assertion makes no sense
written by Evan, February 08, 2010

Chafee said he was for a 1% sales tax, and that he was open to the idea of eliminating the flat tax. That's a pretty clear cut case! The election isn't until November! American political observers can be so impatient. You would hate living in a country like Britain where the election only lasts about two months.

As for Laffey, he has not yet entered the race - and I would rather have NO ideas than his bad ideas. Nevertheless, CHafee has presented a very thorough analysis full of proposals (see his campaign page), and to assert otherwise makes no sense.

Indeed, checking websites is a good thing...
written by jparis, February 08, 2010

I think that if political-watchers did check candidates' websites, they'd be more well-informed about their plans, or lack there of. It's incredibly important that we make sure our next governor does have a plan before heading to office... but as Evan points out, it is only February after all.

In the case of Senator Chafee, his website lays out not only his "idea" for a two-tiered sales tax, but also goes into more detail on his ideas for drawing green energy jobs to the state, and improving our public education system. (http://www.chafeeforgovernor.com/issues/)

Call me biased, but this certainly sounds like the beginnings of an economic recovery plan to me.

not a plan
written by forsanri, February 08, 2010

Check the website my friends.

Chafee says he's "prepared" NOW to take office. Prepared means that he has a plan. But before he proceeds to the "plan" of boosting revenue through a tax increase, his website says he will oppose any tax until he reforms spending and mandates.

So the "plan" you're citing won't even get implemented until he cleans up spending and mandates. Here's where it would be nice to know some details (sort of in the format of a plan). How long will it take to reform spending? How much can we expect to save? How many mandates and which ones will be reformed? How much relief can municipal governments expect? These are the sort of details that a guy who has been out of work for 3 years should be "prepared" to discuss, particularly if he wants to be a Governor.

Can you link to Chafee's plan for how he will cut spending and mandates?

You can
written by right_of_center, February 08, 2010

"The media in RI needs to take responsibility for their role in not outing the candidates for conservatives they are, especially in the GA."

No one is stopping you from doing the same. Who are they? Who are these "conservatives" with the D next to their name in the Assembly? I'm guessing that anyone to the right of Perry or Ajello or Segal are "conservatives" in your mind, no?

No New Taxes , Less Spending, Negotiate Better Purchasing & Contracts
written by Todd Giroux, February 09, 2010

The concept of a one dollar tax on Grocery Store Food opens the door for increases. I support tax on unhealthy fast foods, not beverages, spending freeze on prisons, mandatory revenue producing work for prisoners, Lower the home heating fuel tax, all state purchasing must reduced and renegotiated. The pension fund should be invested in our our state and not to be charged front loaded fees and mismanaged to poor performance year upon year.. spend within our means.. RI cannot afford to loose another billion dollars in schemes that fund out of state investment. How does a state treasurer (public empoyee ) personally gain equity accepting out of state firms to finance a campaign 1.5 million dollars when every opportunity to risk state assets is lost equity for RI. ? RI cannot afford politicians that flip flop their party nor can they accept "laisse faire " politics and performance to be qualification for the challenges that proactive job creation that governing requires. www.rigovernor2010.com
Todd Giroux,
Governor Candidate 2010

didn't think so
written by forsanri, February 09, 2010

Guess there is no "plan" Evan?

That's the whole problem here. None of these guys have thought through what they are going to do when they get elected. Not really sure what the point of the Great Britain comment is, but you'd love living in other states where their candidates run on a plan instead of a legacy name.

Asking a candidate what they're going to do once elected is a pretty basic question. They can't answer it in any detail and until they do, NONE of these candidates should be taken seriously.