Progress Report: Election Day! Dixville Notch Results In; Baited Breath in CD1; Obama Enjoys 92% Chance of Victory

The votes are already coming in … up in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, traditionally the first town in America to report its results, Obama and Romney have battled to a draw among the 10 voters there.

Let’s hope the David Cicilline fares better in the 1st District than Obama did in Dixville, though it could be as close. It’s really the only statewide campaign that is still in doubt. Dan McGowan says , which is a good point.

Let’s also hope it isn’t too close to call … the Ocean State might not be able to handle that.

Speaking of hope … remember four years ago when us progressives were filled with hope? It’s not quite the same feeling this year, is it?

But there is good news … forget what the pundits and the national polls are telling you – and the Dixville results, for that matter – the presidential race isn’t nearly as close as it may appear to the lay observer. Numbers guru Nate Silver says Mitt Romney has only an 8 percent chance of winning today … roughly the same odds as drawing an inside straight in poker.

Now, remember, people do pull inside straights in poker, so it’s not over yet. And even if Obama is very likely to win, it doesn’t mean he’ll win by a lot and it also doesn’t mean we’ll know particularly early. Consider the country, and yours truly, lucky if we know who our next president is by the time we all go to bed tonight. Assuming of course Romney doesn’t pull an inside straight of electoral politics.

ProJo columnist Ed Fitzpatrick looks into the controversy surrounding Silver’s projections ginned up by GOP talking heads who are understandably trying to stave off a self-fulfilling prophecy. Still, it’s worth pointing out that Republicans have resorted to ignoring the laws of science, economics and now math to push their agenda … how can this be good for America??

In case you are very much unlike me and are going to miss the 2012 campaign season, you can review the 10 best moments of it here.

I can’t add enough links to this post to capture all the great stuff Rhode Island Public Radio bloggers Ian Donnis and Scott MacKay have cranked out over the past couple days … if you, by chance, aren’t a regular reader of their stuff, it’s all right here.

The ProJo helps you figure out “how and where to cast your vote.”

Ted Nesi breaks down how many people vote in Rhode Island, and who they are … and how the number of people who show up today could swing the Cicilline/Doherty campaign.

I know many of you moderate Rhode Island Democrats have forgotten why the labor movement is your ally, so here’s a practical reason to stop crapping on unions: if and when Obama wins his second term, it will be organized labor most responsible for the win in Ohio.

I disagree with today’s ProJo editorial arguing that all the negative ads and smear campaigns we’ve had to endure are actually a sign of a healthy democracy … while they are a part of our Democracy, that doesn’t mean they are a good part of it. Fixes for this problem aren’t easy to come by, but that also doesn’t make it a good thing.

On this day in 1860, Abraham Lincoln was elected president.