2014 RI Democratic Primary

Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras supporting payday loan reform. (Bob Plain 5/18/12 Click on image for larger version)

The Taubman Center’s recent poll is probably the ultimate kick-off of horse race coverage of the 2014 campaign for governor. In a somewhat regular occurrence for Director Marion Orr, the poll’s methodology was called out almost immediately. WPRI’s Ted Nesi has an interview with Orr explaining the methodology; here on RI Future our editor Bob Plain has a quick list comparing the actual results of elections versus Taubman’s predictions.

Polling is great for horse race coverage, and shoddy polling is politically dangerous. A year out, with the primary candidates for governor as yet undeclared, we don’t care much for talking about the issues the next governor will face; even though recent history suggests the decisions made in this next year will likely have great impacts on the next administration. Thus the polling provides a simple narrative for who has the “advantage” going into the actual race.

That narrative is something to be cautious about, especially in Rhode Island. What the media is saying is not necessarily what is happening. Sometimes, unfortunately, media outlets can fall too much in love with the narrative they’ve created. 2012 should remain a sobering moment; the narrative (based largely on polling) was that Rep. David Cicilline was in for one of the closest races of his political career. On the eve of the election, WPRI showed Cicilline with a 1-point lead over challenger Brendan Doherty. A month before, both the Taubman Center and WPRI had Cicilline with a 5- or 6-point lead. Cicilline went on to win by an unexpected 12.2% margin.

The Taubman Center’s polling also shows where the narrative is going. Included is a question comparing a 4-way race between Gina Raimondo, Angel Taveras, Allan Fung, and Ken Block. The operating theory is that Raimondo will choose to skip the Democratic primary, run as an independent and Chafee her way to victory. But here’s the thing; she’s already told NBC 10’s Jim Taricani that she won’t run for governor as an independent. Why does this narrative persist? Because people want it to.

In the meantime, there are strong questions to be asked. For instance, how does the next governor fix the state’s economy? Can they, considering the office’s major policy-making ability is as a leader in budget creation and through the bully pulpit? For the Democrats, we have to ask ourselves what the General Assembly does if the governor is no longer a useful foil to play off of? How do the candidates view the office they’re running for? There are social issues that are going to come up during the next term; will gubernatorial candidates protect the recent advances, or will they roll back progress? What are their educational policies?

David Preston has a great review of the usefulness of polling, and how to watching a political campaign without using numbers that are either unreliable or meant to manipulate.

Maybe we’ll be served well by a bruising Democratic primary. Maybe all the money of the potential principals and their allies will be lined up and thrown against each opponent with the intent to grievously wound. You know, we may well be served by the millions spent in pursuit of a bully pulpit with a veto pen.

Perhaps, as our brawlers approach the fight, Rhode Islands will find assistance in the camps who hurl barbs and provocations; each one doing their be impression of Muhammad Ali. And when they finally go up against one another in the ring; and the victor emerges; bloody, battered, and bereaved; perhaps no Republican will rub their hands in glee.

Maybe voters will forget, between mid-September and early November, the worst of the primary campaign. Perhaps, in that brief October and a half, those of us with nothing more than a vote and an opinion will ignore the accusations, insinuations, and outright lies. Because regardless of who wins, at their hearts and on the ballot they’re still the same shade of blue; and whether it’s one or the other, their money is just as green.

And perhaps it will not come to pass, that talking heads, radio braggarts, and vain bloggers such as I will not cry out “Civil War!” as we are prone to do. Perhaps in will not happen that in 2018, the pundits will not say, “Rhode Island has not elected a Democratic governor in 24 years,” and they will not nod their heads so sagely.

Or… Or maybe reason and sense will come to our would-be leaders. And instead of behaving like two Cold War commanders; locked in Mutually Assured Destruction, each attempting to win with a devastating first strike; they’ll have a moment of sanity, as they so often have appealed to us to find within ourselves.

Then they might set aside whatever distaste for one another they might have, and meet, and take a People’s Pledge. And they could tell us that unaccountable money has no place in the Rhode Island of today, and should that vile spending find its way into our small state the benefactor will donate a sum to charity. And so those who would assist one candidate by tearing the opponent down will find that their sword cuts both ways.

Perhaps our two popular leaders, will set aside the instruments of pain and division which we know have been gathered. And instead of a campaign waged with slings, barbs, and arrows, maybe we’ll be served with one of ideas and vision. And instead of arguing about a Rhode Island which we refuse to let rest in its grave; our once and future leaders will of one yet to be born, built by the heroes we can be, and fit those Rhode Islanders yet to come.

For the past is already done, and the present’s about to be. But the future’s yet unwritten, and that’s all the truth I see.

Tag: 2014 RI Democratic Primary

Let the Taveras, Raimondo horse race begin!

Bloody primary or People’s Pledge?