Progress Report: Elastic Rhode Island; Mark Schwager, Typical Candidate; More Binder v. Fox; Kerr on Grinding


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Graphic courtesy of FiveThirtyEight.

Rhode Island, says New York Times number-crunching blog FiveThirtyEight, is the most politically elastic state, meaning that “a large swatch of its electorate are persuadable voters unaligned with either political party.”In a separate piece on political elasticity Nate Silver describes elastic states as “those which have a lot of swing voters — that is, voters who could plausibly vote for either party’s candidate.”

It’s one of the reasons, FiveThirtyEight reports, that we elect a lot of Democrats to the General Assembly and a lot of Republicans to the governor’s office. (We haven’t had a Democratic governor in almost 20 years!)

But it’s also one of the reasons why our hugely-Democratic legislature generally passes some pretty conservative legislation … Just consider our landmark pension reform law that conservatives around the country are so fond of, or our new voter ID law – we’re the only blue state in the country to have one!

Speaking of State House races … only in East Greenwich (okay, and also Barrington and Greenwich, Conn.) is an upper-middle-class, fiscally-conservative/socially-liberal, white, male professional “not your typical General Assembly candidate” because he is a doctor rather than a lawyer or a businessman! EG needs to diversify like Central Falls needs tax dollars; the difference is one deficiency is debilitating and the other is easy ignore.

The reality is, because of the aforementioned attributes, Dr. Mark Schwager couldn’t be a more demographically typical state legislator. He’s also the best candidate in a three-way race to replace Bob Watson (the outgoing fiscally-conservative/socially-liberal, white, male professional from Agrestic … er, I mean East Greenwich). Schwager’s medical experience would serve the state well on Smith Hill and, even more importantly, he possesses impeccable character – an increasingly rare quality in politicians in particular but also people in general…

…And speaking of upper-middle-class, white East Greenwich professionals with impeccable character, EG owes a huge thank you to Patch Editor Elizabeth McNamara, who covers her community as well as any other reporter in Rhode Island.

Mark Binder says Gordon Fox is for sale. A serious allegation. Now that the ProJo put it on the front page, they ought to go out and ferret out the truth. Grab that list from Binder, call and ask everyone on it what their expectation was for their donation and then let us know what they say.

“Like Lazarus, Cicilline appears to have risen from the ranks of the political dead,” Cook Political Report on the Congressman’s comeback, according to Ted Nesi.

Bob Kerr on grinding: “Come on, people, June and Ward Cleaver left the building a long time ago.”

I’m with Mike Riley on this one … Jim Langevin should have done the WPRO debate with him and Abel Collins.

And here’s another instance of me agreeing with a conservative on a fiscal matter.

 

Progress Report: David Cicilline Predicts Dems Can Capture House; Dan Yorke, Bill Fischer on Polls vs. Push Polls


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Downtown Providence from the Providence River. (Photo by Bob Plain)

It’s well established that things are looking pretty good for David Cicilline, and now Cicilline is predicting good things for Democrats prospects of retaking control of the House of Representatives. The incumbent congressman told RIPR’s Ian Donnis, “The reality is we need 24 seats to take control away from the Republican Tea Party caucus that is now leading the House . I think it’s absolutely possible for Democrats to take back the House.”

Cicilline might be right. Mitt Romney’s 47 percent comments have completely rejiggered congressional contests all over the country, and strategists think it could cost the GOP the Senate.

Speaking of the 47 percent, here’s how the 53 percent benefit from government subsidies.

Dan Yorke had a great and informative conversation with Dem spokesman Bill Fischer yesterday afternoon about polls … if you want to know more about the difference between polls and push polls, listen to the segment. There’s been a lot of misinformation going around about the difference.

This should be a huge concern for Rhode Island: “More than a fifth of children in Rhode Island are living in poverty, and over 10 percent are in extreme poverty.”

New York Times columnist Joe Nocera had a great piece on the Chicago teachers’ strike and the so-called education reform movement. He writes, “teachers are fighting for the things industrial unions have always fought for: seniority, favorable work rules and fierce resistance to performance measures. City Hall is fighting to institute reforms no top-performing country has ever seen fit to use, and which probably won’t make much difference if they are instituted.”

Aaron Regunberg also wrote about the Chicago teachers’ strike for GoLocal.

Bob Kerr on the father-daughter dance controversy in Cranston: “This is nonsense. There is legal cover for it, but it is nonsense. It sounds like a spoof on political correctness, but it is far too real.”

Rest in peace, Mary Carpenter … Rhode Island owes the entire Carpenter family a debt of gratitude for helping to make Matunuck the community it is today.

Today in 1938, a hurricane hits Rhode Island.