Should RI pursue a Ford or Cadillac-style economy


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ford cadillac economyIf there is one thing everyone in Rhode Island agrees about it’s that jobs and the economy should be our number 1 priority. But there is a great disagreement in how we accomplish that. I think these two very similar Ford and Cadillac commercials explain the difference between the economy conservatives want for Rhode Island and the economy progressives want.

Cadillac:

Ford:

I actually believe Rhode Island needs both these economies. But I haven’t seen a lot of evidence that our Cadillac economy is struggling. I think oftentimes what happens is we point to the problems of our Ford owners and suggest solutions for Cadillac owners.

Economics: more weapon than science


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occupations-shoe-shine-boyMainstream economic theory, since the death of Adam Smith and the hijacking of his ideas by those more interested in justifying the power of the elite than in establishing a fair and moral system of resource distribution has become a weapon with which to cudgel the poor and eradicate the middle class.

Those who claim the largest share of the world’s profits and resources have every reason to perpetuate economic theories, and they do. One notable way they do so is by funding right wing economic think tanks such as Cato, ALEC and Brookings. These think tanks fund a massive amount of economic “research” but for the most part such research amounts to logically suspect thought experiments borrowing from the language of mathematics and physics to enshrine as “laws” ideas with no relation to the objective, real world.

Chris Hedges recently interviewed economic historian Avner Offer on Truthdig, who had this to say about modern economic theory. (I strongly suggest reading the entire piece.):

Offer cited a concept from social psychology called the just-world theory. “A just-world theory posits that the world is just. People get what they deserve. If you believe that the world is fair you explain or rationalize away injustice, usually by blaming the victim.

“Major ways of thinking about the world constitute just-world theories,” he said. “The Catholic Church is a just-world theory. If the Inquisition burned heretics, they only got what they deserved. Bolshevism was a just-world theory. If Kulaks were starved and exiled, they got what they deserved. Fascism was a just-world theory. If Jews died in the concentration camps, they got what they deserved. The point is not that the good people get the good things, but the bad people get the bad things. Neoclassical economics, our principal source of policy norms, is a just-world theory.”

Offer quoted the economist Milton Friedman: “The ethical principle that would directly justify the distribution of income in a free market society is, ‘To each according to what he and the instruments he owns produces.’ ”

“So,” Offer went on, “everyone gets what he or she deserves, either for his or her effort or for his or her property. No one asks how he or she got this property. And if they don’t have it, they probably don’t deserve it. The point about just-world theory is not that it dispenses justice, but that it provides a warrant for inflicting pain.”

Offer’s idea that economics grants “a warrant for inflicting pain” should resonate with anyone who puzzles over the drive by a Republican controlled Congress to deny extended unemployment benefits, cut SNAP funding, maintain ridiculously high and punitive student loan debt, or inflict any of a thousand other policies on the American public that serve no purpose other than to punish the less fortunate for the crime of being less fortunate.

Maintaining the illusion of a meritocracy against all evidence (Is Paris Hilton richer than you because of her talent and work ethic?) is as old as economics itself. I’m reading Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century, and on the same day I read Hedges’ Truthdig piece I came across the following passage concerning Charles Dunoyer, a minor French economist who made some small observations about economic cycles but acted mostly as an apologist for the rich and powerful:

…in his 1845 book De la liberté du travail (in which he of course expressed his opposition to any form of labor law or social legislation): “one consequence of the industrial regime is to destroy artificial inequalities, but this only highlights natural inequalities all the more clearly.” For Dunoyer, natural inequalities included differences in physical, intellectual, and moral capabilities, differences that were crucial to the new economy of growth and innovation that he saw everywhere he looked. This was his reason for rejecting state intervention of any kind: “superior abilities… are the source of everything that is great and useful… Reduce everything to equality and you will bring everything to a standstill…” The plain fact is that this argument is often used to justify extreme inequalities and to defend the privileges of the winners without much consideration for the losers, much less for the facts, and without any real effort to verify whether this very convenient principle can actually explain the changes [in economic inequality] we observe.

It should come as no surprise that the anti-equality Dunoyer is showcased on the crank economics website mises.org, or that the quotes Piketty provides cannot be found there.

Over the years astrology gave way to astronomy and alchemy gave way to chemistry. Other sciences, such as psychology and sociology evolved as rigor was coupled with observation and false beliefs are discarded. As J.P. Bouchard said in his classic 2008 essay for Nature, “Economics needs a scientific revolution,” there is a lot to be done before economics can be considered to be a real science:

Most of all, there is a crucial need to change the mindset of those working in economics and financial engineering. They need to move away from what Richard Feynman called Cargo Cult Science: a science that follows all the apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, while still missing something essential.

Until economic matures into a real science, it will never be a tool to help us allocate resources in a fair and compassionate way. Instead, it will be a weapon used to justify the theft of our efforts, the starvation of our children, and the victimization of the powerless.

RI economy improved for 1%, but it got worse for 99%


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one percent epi graphic
Click on the image for a larger version.

Rhode Island’s economy is recovering. But not for the 99 percent it isn’t.

A new report by the Economic Analysis and Research Network shows that between 2009 and 2011, the 99 percent – those Rhode Island’s who make on average $41,958 a year – saw an average decline of 4.1 percent in their earnings.

On the other hand, the one percent in Rhode Island – those who make at least $287,311 a year – did quite well in the same two years. Their earnings increased by 17.3 percent from 2009 to 2011.

“Rhode Island has not escaped the disturbing trend of growing inequality over the past decades,” said Kate Brewster, executive director of The Economic Progress Institute. “Today, the average income of the top one percent is 20.3 times the average income of the bottom 99 percent.  We call on leaders in Washington and here at home to put in place policies that increase income for the majority and help close the income gap.”

Only in four other states – North Dakota, Massachusetts, Texas and Colorado – did the one percent fare better from 2009 to 2011. And only the 99 percent in Nevada fared worse than the 99 percent in Rhode Island did from 2009 to 2011.

Conversely, there was less income disparity between the one percent and the 99 percent in Rhode Island from 1979 and 2007, and Rhode Island had less income disparity than the national average. The richest one percent of Rhode Islanders income grew by 170.3 percent from 1979 to 2007 compared to 40.4 percent for the poorest 99 percent of Rhode Islanders. Nationally during that same time frame, the richest one percent increased their earnings by 200.5 percent and the poorest 99 percent increased by only 18.9 percent.

The change in income distribution coincided with not only the economic collapse but also broad income tax cuts for the top tax bracket in Rhode Island proposed by former Governor Don Carcieri, a tea party Republican, and approved by the General Assembly, which took a hard turn to the right on economic policy during and after the Carcieri era.

From 2005 to 2011, the highest income tax rate in Rhode Island dropped from 9.9 percent to 5.99 percent. And during that same time frame that taxes were lowered on Rhode Island’s richest residents and they simultaneously started to earn a higher percentage of the state’s overall income, the unemployment rate creeped up to among the highest in the nation, further eroding the talking point from the far right and conservative Democrats that tax cuts help create new jobs.

The new report released today does not breaks down the data only into the one percent versus the 99 percent. You can read the full report here. Or check out the online version here. Here’s the Rhode Island-specific data.

In 2007, the one percent in Rhode Island accounted for 18.1 percent of all income. That was up from 1979, when the one percent only accounted for 10.3 percent. In 1928, the one percent in Rhode Island were responsible for 23.6 percent of all income.

Rebuilding Rhode Island’s Economy, Part 3: Densifying Downtown


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Downtown Providence from the Providence River. (Photo by Bob Plain)
Downtown Providence from the Providence River. (Photo by Bob Plain)

Recently, it was reported that Providence has the 5th highest residential occupancy rate in the country. This is good and bad news.

The good news is that an occupancy rate of 96.3% represents strong residential demand for Providence (this was validated by the market study of the Superman Building conducted by 4Ward Planning). This is likely because not much has been getting built in Providence since the housing market collapsed in 2006 (notable exceptions are the Providence G and the Arcade micro-lofts; my understanding is that the demand for these units is immense, particularly for the micro-lofts because of their affordability). But the bad news is that a high occupancy rate increases rental prices and is indicative of an undersupply of residential rental units. Between 1980 and today, the city’s population has grown from 156,804 to 178,432, a growth rate of almost 14% (admittedly the population of Providence is still much lower than the high of over 250,000 during the 1930s-1940s).

From my perspective, though, the high occupancy rate is a huge opportunity for Providence and the state. Downtown/urban living is in high demand nationally, and Providence is no exception. Increasing residential density downtown, particularly by building on underutilized surface parking lots, would be a huge boon for the restaurants and retail shops that exist there and will create new vibrancy in an area of Providence that can sometimes seem a little bland. It would also be hugely beneficial for the city as more residential units = more property taxes. I say this BECAUSE residential demand is so strong. If it weren’t, there would be no reason to build.

Providence parking lots
Providence’s parking crisis illustrated. (by: Greater City Providence)

Making downtown Providence a more affordable place to live for young and mid-career professionals who are accessing Boston’s labor market would be a smart investment. I personally live downtown and work in Boston and take the commuter rail for my morning commute (along with hundreds of others). By doing so, I bring in external money into the city and state’s economy (i.e., my wages are paid by a Boston firm, but most of my disposable income in spent in Providence and the rest of Rhode Island). Increasing the supply of residential rental units within walking distance of the Providence train station will generate revenue for the city (via property taxes) and the state (via sales and income taxes).

People smarter than me have suggested that the overall lack of building residential rental units downtown has to do with the high cost of construction (costs are roughly the same as in Boston or Hartford), the ridiculous parking requirements (1.5 spots per residential unit), the height restrictions (most of downtown is limited to 100 or 120 feet), and the relatively modest rents that can be charged for rental units compared to other rental markets (average rental rates for downtown Providence are about $1,300 compared to $2,000 in Boston).

The minimum parking requirement of 1.5 spots per unit is particularly onerous. If we want more walkable neighborhoods, and more cost effective construction, this ordinance needs to be significantly changed. High parking minimums make construction more expensive by having to build garage parking to accommodate automobiles, even for those people (like myself) who do not own a car. These parking garages take up a lot of space and don’t deliver all that much value (a 70 square foot parking space may generate about $100/month while 70 square feet of living space is much more valuable). Further, the excess area required to allow for drive-in and out is simply wasted space.

Providence Zoning
Downtown Providence zoning map.

Similarly, most of downtown is restricted to about 100 or 120 feet maximum height (here’s a link to Providence’s zoning map). Depending on the ceiling height for the residential units, this limits construction to about 8 to 10 stories. If a developer is limited to 10 stories, and is required to put 1.5 spots for every unit, the economics for positive net return become very difficult. Closer to Rt. 95, a developer could build up to 200 feet high, and there is a small section of downtown that is zoned at 300 feet, but is occupied by the Convention Center, the Civic Center (or “the Dunk” as it is now affectionately known), the Omni Hotel, and the Residences. The surface lot across from the Hilton Hotel seems to be the only parcel that could be a prime parcel for a large tower, although its footprint is fairly small. Generally, the higher a developer can build, the more units that can be built, and the less space is taken up by parking, the more residential construction will happen. And an increase in rental housing supply brings down the cost of rental housing, as recently happened in Boston’s Seaport District.

As part of Providence zoning review, hopefully the parking mandate and the height restrictions will change (disappear). I personally like the Miami 21 zoning code that breaks through the rigidity of specifically designated land-use districts (like what Providence currently has) and adopts a form-based code that allows for organic changes in land use based on elements of walkability, the relationship between and among buildings and streets, and transitioning neighborhoods to accommodate growth and change based on what actually makes sense versus being restricted by a particular use that was set decades ago. Providence should really consider this.

Portland (of course) has been excellent when it comes to creating a bicycle friendly city, and it set another high bar for residential density when a 657-apartment project being developed in the Inner East neighborhood just outside of downtown Portland will have 1,200 parking spaces for bicycles rather than the almost 1,000 parking spaces that would be required in Providence. I imagine Providence doing something like this to minimize the wasteful impact of overly abundant car parking and making downtown living an attractive and AFFORDABLE option for all income levels.

But how does it get done? The city can be a partner by helping facilitate zoning variances to reduce the parking requirement and to build taller. To subsidize the cost and make the units affordable for low-income and average people to live there, the developer should access federal Historic Tax Credits and Low Income Housing Tax Credits. Building near the train station is ideal since access to Boston’s labor market is a huge incentive. More people living downtown means a more vibrant and commercially dynamic downtown.

Rebuilding Rhode Island’s Economy, Part 1: Economic Development 101


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Unemployment LineI am of the mind that the biggest issue facing the state right now is the sluggish economy.  I know many share this belief.  With that in mind, I will be focusing my (unfortunately limited) time writing specifically on creative strategies to improve Providence’s and the state’s economy, and thinking about it from the perspective of the upcoming gubernatorial and Providence Mayoral campaigns (i.e., what do the candidates have to say about what I write?).  Before I delve into specific suggestions, I believe there are a few items relevant to economic growth that need to be clarified at the outset.

State House

First, there isn’t much the government can do to improve the economy directly, particularly in this climate of economic distress and innovation paralysis.  When the economy is running smoothly, most folks want the government to “stay out of the way.”  But when the economy tanks, policymakers are the first to be blamed (this is a disingenuous and undeserved complaint), and everyone wants them to “fix it.”  First, you can’t have it both ways people.  Second, there is no magic solution to “fixing” the economy.

Second, economic growth takes time, commitment, alignment on a vision, and the autonomy to make things happen.  It is unlikely to see radically positive results in a few months or even a couple years.  Economic development is a decades-long strategy, that often requires partnerships and long-term planning that are challenging for public officials, policymakers, and civil service staff.  While the pain of recessions, joblessness, and foreclosures is real, there are often few options for state and local officials to ease that pain.

Third, everything matters to economic development: education, transportation, infrastructure, workforce, land-use, zoning, existing markets, history, taxes, regulations, natural assets, etc.  But each of these matter to varying degrees depending on the industrial sector and individual businesses.  To assume that “lowering taxes” or “reducing regulations” is the most important of considerations is foolish, ill-advised, offensive, and immeasurably distracting from the various other issues that are generally much more important for long-term economic success.  While everything is important, some things are more important than others.

winner and loserFourth, every strategy comes with trade-offs and there are always winners and losers with any policy change.  Typically, those with wealth and power can influence policy to their benefit.  And while this may benefit them personally, or as a group, there are long-term consequences for the economy that are generally ignored.  The incremental policy decisions that have been made in the past have led to our little state to lack the sufficient resiliency to bounce back from the recent and ongoing depression/recession.  The economic conditions in which Rhode Island finds itself will take many, many years to rectify.

Fifth, demand for goods and services drives the supply of goods and services.  If no one wants to buy stuff, stuff doesn’t get made, and people lose their jobs.  Most tools that are deployed by cities and towns and the state try to stimulate the economy do not address economic demand, and as such they are largely inefficient and/or ineffective.

Sixth, underlying everything is an often ignored but crucial criterion: the importance of inclusive and dispersed economic growth.  The benefits of economic growth need to be broadly shared because the more people who earn money, and the more money that they earn, the higher the level of economic growth.  When economic growth benefits a small (and shrinking) number of people, aggregate demand declines and the economy suffers.  When a rising tide actually lifts all boats, something that the post-WWII economy was notable for, everyone benefits.  When a growing number of boats are chained to the bottom of the ocean, as has been the experience from the mid-1970s onward (with a notable exception during the 1990s), the economy flounders, people fall deeper in debt to maintain their standard of living, and the economy slows.

"I must break you."
“I must break you.”

Seventh, the ONLY way the state (or any state, region, city, etc.) can be successful in the long-run is by improving its competitiveness in particular economic areas.  This can be done by increasing the productivity of existing businesses through innovation or better trained employees or achieving higher workforce participation rates, while ALSO supporting the high and rising wages and living standards of Rhode Islanders.  Period.  This is hard to do, but not impossible.  The role the city and state can play is to lay the groundwork for an iterative process of successive improvements to support business productivity gains and assist with the dispersion of economic benefits.

Eighth, when we discuss economic development, it’s important to differentiate between locally-traded clusters, sectors, and industries and those that are subject to larger markets, regional, national, or global in scope.  The first group includes restaurants, local health services, residential housing construction, etc. while the second group includes software development, manufacturing, higher education, etc.  The success of the first group is largely dependent upon the success of the latter.  To put it another way, an economy can only grow by exporting lots of high-value goods and services and bringing in money to the state from other parts of the country / world.  The degree to which the economy is exposed to and successfully competes in global markets is the single largest factor that explains how successful its local economy is.  This isn’t to say that the local economy isn’t important, just that everyone selling hamburgers to each other does not grow the economy.

Finally, businesses grow at various points over their lifecycle.  The only businesses that are guaranteed to have net positive job growth are new businesses, for the obvious reason that they will employ at minimum the owner of the business and they have no current employees to let go.  Many businesses grow to a certain size and stay there for their entire existence.  Many businesses have dramatic fluctuations in their employment based on seasonal or market demand.  Some businesses have limited but sustained growth.  And only a few businesses experience pronounced growth, and that growth is generally limited to a short period of time.  All of this is important when it comes to growing jobs because there are only limited opportunities to identify and support existing businesses during their growth phases.  But the opportunities are innumerable to support new business growth, and it is new business startups that have been responsible for net new job growth in the past decade.

There are additional factors that contribute or impede economic growth, but in my mind, the 9 above are of paramount importance.  Feel free to bookmark this post as I will update it as I begin listing specific strategies to Rebuild Rhode Island!

Two Rhode Island business stories


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Photo courtesy of EcoRI.org. Click on picture for more.
Photo courtesy of EcoRI.org. Click on picture for more.

A story in today’s Providence Journal would seem to confirm that Rhode Island is indeed an unfriendly place to do business. But wait. A story on EcoRI.org today would seem to confirm that, contrary to the popular narrative, Rhode Island is indeed a friendly place to do business.

One story is about a pharmecutical company and the other story about making energy from food waste. Is it possible both narratives are true, and that this is a good thing?

According to the Providence Journal story, it took the drug company 7 months and $100,000 to apply for a license to have an employee administer pain medicine into an internal pump surgically located in the body of a patient with multiple sclerosis. This might not be a terrible thing to regulate, especially given that the company in question gets bought and sold by private equity firms more often than it invents new products. I’m concerned with how each new owner increases the profitability of this product.

I’m also concerned that a medical procedure for an active patient took more than 7 months to approve. Why? (the story doesn’t say). I do hope Rep. McNamara, who seems most concerned with how the business was treated by the state, also asks for a decision to be expedited for the patient’s sake (ie the consumer).

I’m also interested in why it cost so much money. According to the ProJo story, Pentec, spend $1,000 a month on rent when it seems like it only needed a PO Box. Perhaps Pentec had overspent in other areas as well? Or maybe it is factoring in lobbying fees?

In any case, the EcoRI story painted a very different picture of state regulation. In this case, regulation helped bring a New Hampshire company to the Ocean State to make energy and fertilizer from food scraps.

At a Sept. 10 meeting with members of the House Committee on the Environment and Natural Resources and the North Kingstown Town Council, Callendrello credited the state’s fixed-price energy program, known as distributed generation, for making the project doable. In 2012, anaerobic digesters were added to the list of qualifying energy sources for the DG program.

Callendrello also noted that Rhode Island has a better regulatory environment than Florida and Texas, two states where NEO has biomass facilities. “I think, on balance, it’s probably a better permitting atmosphere,” Callendrello said.

On balance, these might both be instances of the system working.

* It’s well worth noting that the ProJo covered the biomass story on September 10.

Rhode Island: the scrap metal state


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Photo courtesy of Providence Daily Dose. (please click on the picture and visit their website)
Photo courtesy of Providence Daily Dose. (please click on the picture and visit their website)

Rhode Island exports fewer dollars worth of goods to foreign countries than any other New England state, according to the TradeStats Express website.

ne export

Only four other states export fewer dollars worth of goods to other countries than Rhode Island. Here are the top and bottom ten:

Top 10 Bottom 10
1. Texas $264,708,659,761 50. Hawaii $731,664,010
2. California $161,879,918,490 49. Wyoming $1,420,924,817
3. New York $81,358,857,002 48. South Dakota $1,556,241,031
4. Washington $75,618,900,503 47. Montana $1,576,876,497
5. Illinois $68,127,010,189 46. Rhode Island $237,0156,815
6. Florida $66,201,800,100 45. New Mexico $2,967,650,904
7. Louisiana $62,892,633,604 44. Maine $3,047,707,915
8. Michigan $56,993,402,032 43. New Hampshire $3,488,610,845
9. Ohio $48,647,707,663 42. Vermont $4,139,591,084
10. Pennsylvania 38,829,058,903 41. North Dakota $4,308,687,941

But when it comes to selling scrap metal and waste paper abroad, the tiny Ocean State far exceeds its size. In New England, only Massachusetts sells more scrap and waste to other parts of the globe. And not by much:

scrap chart ne statesIn fact, only nine state in the nation export more waste and scrap to other countries than Rhode Island. Here’s a list of the top 15:

1 California $5,648,331,328
2 New York $3,661,343,535
3 Texas $2,366,551,325
4 New Jersey $2,127,648,030
5 Florida $1,816,976,101
6 Illinois $1,208,238,823
7 Washington $1,061,639,428
8 Pennsylvania $924,915,927
9 Massachusetts $784,148,339
10 Rhode Island $644,038,774
11 Georgia $607,482,513
12 Oregon $544,914,550
13 Ohio $505,601,547
14 Virginia $490,487,057
15 Maryland $460,032,638

Rhode Island exports scrap and waste all over the world. Here are the ten biggest importers of Rhode Island scrap and waste:

1 Canada $242,082,822
2 Turkey $190,260,075
3 Germany $86,248,123
4 Italy $71,996,044
5 Egypt $13,268,208
6 Belgium $11,707,432
7 China $11,102,657
8 Vietnam $9,697,288
9 Sweden $3,425,180
10 United Kingdom $1,402,006

Note that Rhode Island sent $13 million worth of scrap and waste to Egypt, a country we don’t exactly have great diplomatic relations with right now. And also note that Canada imports more of our scrap and waste than any other country in the world. I’d love to know what companies there are doing with it.

Fixing RI, Part 1: Collaboration that goes green and global


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Downtown Providence. A recent post in GoLocalProv outlines three “big ideas” from several city councilors that they felt would move the city in the right direction.

While several of the ideas presented were very good (improvements to infrastructure and the city’s public schools, oft cited as pressing issues, and rightfully so) and other still were not (sports facilities have generally done little to drastically alter the economic trajectory of a metropolitan region), I couldn’t help but think that these ideas weren’t really that big. What our leaders need to do is to really think big in three ways: the local geographic sense, the global geographic sense, and the economic sense.

As so often happens in our little state, the suggestions outlined by the members of the Providence City Council are colloquial in nature. To be fair, this is their job. They have been tasked by voters with addressing the immediate needs of their wards and the city as a whole. Providence cannot cure its ails on its own as it has so often tried to do, though.

First, what our leaders – both within Providence and without – need to realize is that they exist not in these tiny economic and municipal bubbles, but in a great regional metropolitan economy that encompasses nearly the whole entire state. The boundaries between our cities and towns are arbitrary as far as the economy is concerned. The interconnectedness of our state’s economy cannot be denied, and thus in order to fundamentally alter the economic path of the city of Providence, city leaders need to collaborate with surrounding municipalities.

This does not just mean elected officials, either. This includes all stakeholders: representatives from the business community, non-profits, academia, and capital firms, to name a few, must all have a seat at the table. Changing this paradigm regarding the way we do business is essential for growth. It’s a big-tent philosophy, and while at first it may seems daunting to think about getting everyone inside, those metropolitan areas (think Denver and Cleveland) who have managed to do so have seen results. Providence will still be the hub of this metropolitan region, but it must make use of the resources of the communities surrounding it to truly alter its current economic course and thus the economic course of the state.

Second, it must look beyond its borders. Metropolitan regions who have seen changes in their economic fortunes have done so by exporting goods and services across the oceans and not relying solely on American markets. Tourism and hospitality, the marine trades, defense, and financial services, to name the biggies, are the current drivers of our local economy. These sectors are critical for our economic health, but they are not enough. The state relies heavily, for the most part (there are exceptions, of course), on domestic consumers of its wares. This leaves the rest of the global market essentially untapped. By building trade relationships with overseas markets and producing exportable products, the Rhode Island economy can grow far beyond its current size.

The third part of this new mindset involves thinking big economically. The state needs an exportable product that no one else seems to be providing on a massive scale. Boston, Baltimore, and Cleveland, among others, are all massive biotechnology hubs with whom Rhode Island cannot compete. While we absolutely should not abandon our “eds and meds” initiative, it will not be the savior of our economy. We are too close to Boston and lack the institutional capacity to be truly competitive on a global basis. Again, that does not mean we should stop innovation in this sector, it just means we need to find something else to set us apart.

We also have a tremendous tourism and hospitality sector. We have some of the finest restaurants in the world and our natural resources are second to none. We can’t, however, ship Misquamicut Beach or a Farmstead cheese plate across the Atlantic. So what do we do, then? What’s the answer here? My big idea is not a new idea. It is one that has been out there for many, many years. The answer: developing the sustainability economy.

CNBC analysis: states good to business stink for people


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CNBC recently released its annual ranking of states I’m glad I don’t live in. This year, the top five are:

  1. South Dakota
  2. Texas
  3. North Dakota
  4. Nebraska
  5. Utah

That’s an entire eighth of America that, with the exception of Austin, Texas, where I would not want to relocate a business no matter how much you paid me. I think I only know one Rhode Islander who ever left the Ocean State for any of these five states; point being we don’t have a lot in common with the states that do well in this study.

Conversely, let’s look at the bottom 10 states: Hawaii, Rhode Island, West Virginia, California, Nevada, Connecticut, Alaska, Louisiana, New Jersey, Mississippi, Maryland. 8 of 10 are coastal and only Mississippi doesn’t have a vibrant tourist sector. Is this an anomaly or is tourism secretly bad for business? Or does CNBC just not accurately factor tourism into their rankings?

There is one thing that troubles me about this ranking every year, and that’s that Rhode Island doesn’t do better in quality of life. This year we came in at 20.

Here’s, I think, where the Ocean State should be focusing its attention. Simply because of our small size and lack of abundant natural resources, we’re never going to beat South Dakota or Texas at attracting miserly CEOs. On the other hand, we really do have the potential to have the highest quality of life in the nation here in the Ocean State.

Small businesses, like the kind that could drive Rhode Island’s economy, tend to care more about quality of life issues. Big businesses, like Met Life, will go where the money is.

Or, as Ted Nesi put it.

Map courtesy of CNBC. Click on the image to see more maps like this.
Map courtesy of CNBC. Click on the image to see more maps like this.

Out-fox Fox: vote ‘NO’ on the House budget bill


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RI State House 4The state budgeting process has once again turned into a farce. This has been particularly true under Speaker Fox’s leadership. However, unlike previous years, the forced House rubber-stamping of the budget is in serious doubt. And that’s a good thing.

The 38 Studios’ bond repayment debacle seems to be the catalyst for the public’s and much of the House membership’s revulsion at the proposed FY2014 budget. But it’s not the only stinker in the budget. Among others, there is also the lack of an extension of family planning services to all low-income women. But the problem is much bigger than just the monetary impacts of the budget.

The House leadership has conducted a widespread pattern of bait-and-switching of many important bills put forward in good faith by the rank-and-file of the House. This is true even of bills that the leadership purported to support during the 2012 campaign. In particular the gun control bills that had widespread support have been gutted to the point of worthlessness. The NRA won. (Which reminds me: did you know that Speaker Fox received $2,200 from the NRA in political contributions during 2010-2012? Other House members also profited.)

The repeal of the Voter ID act was also sculpted behind the scenes by the leadership to be worse than what was in effect for the 2012 elections, a far cry from a repeal.

Now, despite what your feelings are about the above bills, pro or con, I think we can all safely agree on the farcical nature of the budget process in the House. From this year’s hit parade of what would otherwise be laughable elements of the process, we have the following[1]:

  1. The Governor’s budget of January was revised behind closed doors by just two or three legislators.
  2. The House Finance Committee only received an overview of the budget literally a few hours before the Committee met to vote on it.
  3. Even more ludicrous was that the Committee did not see the actual budget, with the all-important details, until just before the relevant part of the budget was discussed during the meeting. The poor staff were running continuously between the meeting room and the copier and back to keep up.
  4. At one point, for the final Section considered, the Appropriations’ section, which was also the longest (over a hundred pages), the staff couldn’t handle the volume and Chairman Melo had to pause the proceedings for some time until the Committee members got their copies.
  5. The fiscal staff spent about 5 minutes, plus-or-minus, of the two-hour-long meeting describing the Appropriations’ section and its changes.
  6. The main negative point brought up by committee members, especially Reps. Newberry and Ferri, was the presence of the 38 Studios bonds repayment in the budget.
  7. After all that, the clout of the House leadership truly became apparent. The vote was to pass the budget 12-0-2: all Democrats in favor, no committee member opposed, and two abstentions, both from Republicans (even they couldn’t say an outright ‘NO’).

The Speaker wants, and so far is, controlling everything that goes on in the House. But he cannot be trusted. See yesterday’s Nesi’s Notes for evidence of Speaker Fox’s lying about 38 Studios and what the House knew, or rather didn’t know, before voting for the relevant approval bill in 2010.

It’s time for Rhode Islanders to say “Enough is enough! Vote ‘NO’ on the budget!” Put yourselves back in charge. I’m making a Call for Action to anyone and everyone who has some time today. Come to the State House at about 1 PM and talk to your Representative before the debate and vote on the budget that starts at 2 PM. For those who’ve never been there, you first go through security on the side of the statehouse farthest from Providence Place, then go up the rotunda stairs (or the elevator) to the second floor. The House entrance is there. There are also visitor galleys on the third floor. Lastly, all House sessions are televised and shown in both real-time both on the web and on cable, and later-on on the web.

I know that’s a bad time for many of us, and perhaps that’s why it was scheduled then, two hours early, but this is a rare perhaps even once-in-a-lifetime moment when your voice can truly be heard and recognized.

If you can’t come in person, see if you can find time to call your Representative in the morning/afternoon/evening (they’ll probably be there for a while). See here to determine who your Representative is, and here to look up her/his phone number. Don’t know what they look like? Go here and click his/her name. Still need help? I’ll be around and do my best. I’ll be the guy with a sign on his back.

I hope to see you at the Capitol.

Keep the faith.

—-Gus Uht


[1] You can see the (long) session for yourself on Capitol Television; look for 6-18-2013, Parts 1 and 2. A shorter version of the highlights was given by Rep. Newberry on Newsmakers June 21.

Pretty, creative state seeks businesses wanting same


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Downtown Providence.
Downtown Providence.

The idea that Rhode Island’s government is good at picking business winners and losers is bankrupt—even setting aside 38 Studios. While cutting taxes and offering incentives may draw corporations, they flee when publicly funded freebies are withdrawn or lowballed by another state (see Bank of America, the “Superman” building, Metlife and CVS’s recent rumblings).

Here are three paradigms to transform our small state into a powerful commerce engine.

Environment is our advantage

Landscape is our natural resource, and it draws tourism. It’s taken 40 years to fix much of the industrial pollution. Putting the DEM’s environmental permitting in the hands of business interests is like asking the fox to watch the henhouse. Give DEM and local governments the ability and resources to maintain and improve our children’s environment.

Additionally, public transportation systems are crucial to 21st century viability. Borrowing money to fund road construction is insufficient. We must replace RIPTA’s funding formula so that bus, trolley and future light rail services can expand to meet growing demand, save energy and reduce CO2 emissions.

Invest in small, innovative and exportable

Providence isn’t just the Creative Capitol; the entire State of Rhode Island is an innovation magnet. Many of our artisans are small independent businesses that don’t show up on the economic radar.

More energy can be directed to encouraging, supporting and streamlining small and micro businesses, diversifying our portfolio.

At the same time, a new “Commerce Concierge” can be created to serve as a single point of contact to navigate the rocky waters of permitting and regulation, and then report back on roadblocks with proposed fixes.

Finally, promoting our “brand” as an international arts center will increase income at home as we export premium-designed work and draw tourists who will watch us create.

Improve public education, smartly

No educated person wants to send their child to a bad school. Not everyone can pay for private schools.

Instead of resisting the fact that we have so many school districts, let’s leverage it. Give local districts the power and the funding to choose how to best improve themselves. All schools need advanced tracks and most schools need supportive tracks. While standardized testing has identified flaws, it is not a panacea for correction. Allow teachers to adjust classes to suit the needs and abilities of their students. We also need to accept that growing up in poverty undermines education, and experiment with innovation to give everyone the opportunity to learn and succeed.

“Hey Mr. Buffet! I just heard about a beautiful place that’s filled with creative energy and has great schools… It’s called Rhode Island.”

Do you care about the show or about results?


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There was apparently quite a party in Cranston yesterday, with several hundred teachers coming together to, well, you wouldn’t say they were there to praise the state Education Commissioner, Deborah Gist. In a poll out a couple of weeks ago, 85% of teachers say they don’t approve of the commissioner or the current policies of the state Department of Education. 

gist in egI think a number of friends I’ve spoken to about this poll don’t appreciate how remarkable a result it is. One of the little secrets of unions is that they don’t usually have unanimous support of their members, and independent polling generally bears that out. It is the rare union that has 85% support on most of what it does. In other words, Commissioner Gist has given a remarkable boost to union solidarity.

On the same subject, there was an interesting letter last week, written to the Board of Education and signed by the directors of 20 different business organizations, like the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce and the Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council. The writers praised Commissioner Gist’s “admirable leadership” and begged her contract be renewed in June.

To be honest, I was being kind and it actually wasn’t that interesting a letter. It mostly consisted of the usual boilerplate, reciting familiar facts about our state’s economy and the educational condition of our citizens. Then it goes on to praise Gist for the mere establishment of policies and the winning of grants, and her willingness to “take bold action for reform.”  These are nice things, to be sure, but who would mistake them for actual achievements?  The policies, you might have noticed, are fairly controversial, and the evidence that they will work is, well, thin. Bold action certainly sounds nice, but invading Iraq was pretty bold, too. How did that work out for us?  If you care more about results than about show, the letter showed some curious priorities.

The thing that came closest to being interesting about the letter was that it referenced our lag behind neighboring states on the national NAEP test scores. This is true, but it is not the only thing shown by those scores and I wonder how many of the letter’s signers have spent time examining Rhode Island’s NAEP results.

To review, the national NAEP tests are widely described as the “gold standard” of testing. They are administered nationally and the data are considered quite reliable, largely because no one has an incentive to game the results. They are administered in the 4th and 8th grades, in reading and math. (I gather there will be high school tests in the future, but there is no past data for now.)

naep-plot

NAEP average figures are shown in the figure, where you can see that Rhode Island scores (red lines) have been steadily climbing for several years. For simplicity, these are averages of the 4th and 8th-grade test scores in the two subjects, but there are similar stories in all the disaggregated scores. Yes, Massachusetts students (blue lines) score higher than ours, but are the red lines in the graph a record of dismal achievement rescued by Governor Don Carcieri’s 2009 appointment of Deborah Gist?  That’s not what they look like to me.

To me, the NAEP results seem somewhat encouraging. They say we still have some hard work to do to catch up to our neighbors, but we embarked on an upward path several years ago. The last data point belongs to the current commissioner, but there is no story to tell here of the triumph of her policies: some categories see a slight uptick and some are slightly down. If she wants to take credit for the accelerating improvement in 8th-grade math scores, she’ll also have to take blame for the slowing improvement in 4th-grade reading scores. In all cases, the encouraging trends were underway years before her arrival.

Monday also saw the release of another letter, from 25 community groups, including the Urban League, the ACLU, RI Legal Services, and the Providence Student Union, urging the Board of Education to reconsider the Commissioner’s disastrous revamp of the high school graduation requirements. Unlike the business leaders, who praised the show of establishing policies and talk about “bold action”, this letter focused on a specific policy — the change in graduation requirement — and its bad effects on students. In other words, these guys are paying attention to the facts on the ground, not the nice words about them. Which one matters more?

The truth is that policy is where rubber meets road. It’s not about the show and about who cuts the most vigorous figure as a leader. It’s not about the hair or the smile, the cut of a suit, or the right kinds of friends. Debates like these ought to be about facts and the policies to address those facts. Policy is what the government does — for you and to you. To focus on the personalities behind it is entirely to miss the point. You’d think this is something folks who think of themselves as business leaders would understand, but the evidence is, well, thin.

RI should be like Paradox Studios, not 38 Studios


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Screen shot of Paradox Interactive game.
Screen shot of Paradox Interactive game.

You’ve probably never heard of Fredrik Wester or the studio he’s CEO of, Paradox Interactive. It operates mainly out of Sweden, a country slowly starting to exert more and more influence in pop culture. And, as Wester points out in this 26 minute talk entitled Using an Axe to Carve a Niche, Paradox Interactive makes games for nerds. Which is why it’s the leader in the grand strategy game market, and why it’s gone from six employees to around 255 across the world since Wester took over in 2004.

If this talk had come out in 2010 instead of 2013, it should’ve been required viewing for the EDC.

Everything about it is the counter example to the 38 Studios deal. Don’t make what the big studios are making, those require experience and resources you don’t have. Identify your market, identify your audience, and saturate it (Wester discusses wanting to sell his game to all of the subscribers of World War II Magazine). Avoid the typical marketing strategies; instead of an expensive 3D animated trailer, Paradox released one for their flagship Europa Universalis game suggesting “this game probably isn’t for you,” defying the customer to prove them wrong. Don’t leave a game incomplete.

In many ways, it’s the opposite strategy that the states here have been pursuing. Right now, we’re seeing strategies focused around “economic competitiveness.” But of course, the way to be competitive is to just throw gobs of cash at a company; witness North Carolina pulling in MetLife jobs with a $96 million payoff or our own success of attracting business with 38 Studios. Or how CVS demands money to stay in the state, even though it’s been very successful.

Rhode Island simply can’t compete with states like California, New York, or Texas. We can’t even compete with Massachusetts or Connecticut. But even though we’ve consistently failed trying to play this game, that’s what’s being pursued by our so-called leaders.

Businesses behaving badly


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pyramid-of-capitalismIn past posts, I have explained actions that businesses–usually large corporations–have taken that are decidedly contrary to the interests of the general public. For this, commentors have claimed that I’m anti-business, that I’m using scare tactics, I’m just a socialist, or some combination thereof.

However, in the news over the past month or so we have seen two excellent examples of Business Behaving Badly. The first, of course, was the decision of MetLife to summarily fire all of its Life Administration employees here in RI and other parts of the Northeast and across the country, in order to move those jobs to North Carolina. MetLife is firing these people in order to pad its already high profits: $1.4 Bn for 2012. That seems to be contrary to the interests of the general public.

And yes, these people are being fired. There is no other word that accurately describes what is happening. Fired. For no fault of their own. Without cause. With no justification other than it better suits Met’s interests. A lot of these people have worked loyally for Met for periods often measured in decades. The reward for loyal service is to be fired.

How does that fit with the propaganda that the free market will take care of employees better than any government? Answer, it doesn’t. What it does do is illustrate to perfection how a corporation will take care of its own needs, regardless of the number of lives that are damaged in the process. It’s all about increasing the benefits that flow in a torrent to those already at the apex of the financial pyramid.

The second example is the explosion of the fertilizer plant in West, Texas. Now, from what I can gather, this plant was not part of some multinational corporation. A company like Met could have bought and sold it out of the spare change in the couch cushions. But it was a business, run for profit. One way of increasing profit is to cut corners on safety issues. Despite the fact that ammonium nitrate was the explosive of choice used by Timothy McVeigh in the Oklahoma City bombing, those in charge of the fertilizer plant did not consider this a safety risk, Records indicate that the risk that concerned them most was the possibility of a leak of ammonia gas. This would be a bad thing, but not catastrophic.

So the company took no steps to mitigate the possible risk. Why not? Because they did not see the need, and taking steps would have cost money.

Now, it appears that no one in the town particularly blames the company, and the company was certainly not a rapacious corporation hell-bent on increasing profit. Still, the fact remains that no safety precautions were taken, and fifteen people are dead because of the lack of precautions.

The third example is the worst and most blatant of all: the collapse of the building in Bangladesh.

One thing we all hear about is the need for ‘common sense’. Doesn’t it seem that ‘common sense’ should include taking precautions to reduce the risk of a fire at a plant that stores large quantities of highly-explosive material? If you’re making dynamite, shouldn’t you build risk-mitigation into your plans? And ammonium nitrate, in the quantities on hand at the fertilizer plant is every bit as dangerous as dynamite. You can take Timothy McVeigh’s word on that. Doesn’t ‘common sense’ tell you to build a building so it won’t collapse?

It also appears that the fertilizer company may not have actually broken any laws. That also seems to be part of the problem. The plant is in Texas, and Texas prides itself on being a land of lax regulation. So fifteen people died so Texas could maintain its macho image of ‘hands-off’ conservatism. IOW, it’s more like Bangladesh, and less like the rest of the US that foolishly insists on standards. More, 68 people have died in mining accidents in the new millennium. The common thread of all these deaths is the lack of safety precautions. Why did the companies in question not take proper precautions? Because they cost money, and no one made them take the precautions.

In many ways, the impression is that the West Fertilizer Company was actually a fairly benign employer. In many ways, that only makes things worse. If this is how a well-intentioned company acts, how much worse are those actively looking for corners to cut?

This is how business will operate in an unregulated, or lightly-regulated market. Most businesses will be responsible, but there will always be a few who don’t. And when these businesses behave irresponsibly, and profit from this lack of concern, others will mimic that behavior and start cutting corners, too. And people will die. And it doesn’t have to be a business like mining, or fertilizer production with their built-in dangers; it could be the result of locked or nonexistent emergency exits, as happened in the Hamlet, NC chicken plant fire where 25 people died, or the even more horrific Triangle Shirtwaist fire, which killed over 140 people.

We are told that regulations in the US are too onerous. That they cost businesses money, and so jobs. We are told we need to lighten the regulatory burden on business, so that we can create jobs. IOW, we need to become more like Bangladesh, with its light (non-existent? Certainly not-enforced) regulations, no unions, and starvation wages for its employees.

You get what you pay for.

This is what happens when businesses are left to police themselves. Things are no different now than they were a century ago.

 

What Rhode Island should know about hedge funds, part 1


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hedge fundsWhat’s the purpose of investing in a hedge fund?  Because “hedge fund manager” is almost synonymous with “fabulously wealthy” in the popular press, lots of people think hedge funds are all about high risk and high returns.

Originally, though, hedge funds were thought to provide high returns simply by being consistent, if dull. The idea was that by “hedging” risk with investments whose value fluctuates independently from one another, a good manager could deliver solid but unspectacular results, but do so year after year. 

Since the origination of these funds, more than 40 years ago, the industry has transformed from a handful of conservative investor funds in a relative backwater of the investor world to include funds that follow a much wider variety of strategies, and have trillions of dollars under management. In the process, the meaning of the term has changes, and these days, it just means any unregulated investment fund.

What’s that?  Unregulated?  Well, yes. The SEC, which regulates lots of other Wall Street activity, doesn’t have much to say about hedge funds, except that you have to be a “accredited investor” to invest in one. Essentially this just means you have to be rich enough.

A mutual fund, open to anyone with a dollar, is regulated by the SEC, and is subject to various kinds of disclosure and reporting requirements. Hedge funds, by contrast, only give their clients (usually referred to as fund “partners”, which sounds chummy, doesn’t it?) the information they want to release. If they want to tell you what their returns were, they can. If they don’t, that’s your problem.

Fees are high, too. Where a mutual fund might charge a service charge of one percent or less to its customers’ accounts each year, the standard in the hedge fund industry is 2%, plus a 20% share of any investment gains. Naturally, they do not share in any losses.

Lack of information and high fees?  Such a deal. The reason customers put up with this kind of abuse is the promise of high returns. That’s what makes it so shocking that over the past 20 years, most investors would have made substantially more money by investing in low-interest US government bonds. (This is not just a matter of the 2008-2009 downturn, though that plays a role.)

That’s the message of Simon Lack, whose book, “Hedge Fund Mirage: The Illusion of Big Money and Why It’s Too Good To Be True“, describes his experiences in the hedge fund industry. Lack, a trader at JP Morgan, spent several years investing in hedge funds on behalf of the bank.

JP Morgan did its part to foster the recent flourishing of the hedge fund industry because in the 1990’s, astute traders there noticed the contrast between the weak returns of the industry and the wealth of the managers. The contrast led them to wonder whether they should try investing in a different way. Lack helped start their Capital Market Investment Program, which provided seed money to fledgling funds in exchange for a share of the fees as well as the investment returns. With one foot on the management side of the business and the other with the customers, Lack has a unique perspective on the business.

What he learned was this: The fabulous wealth of hedge fund managers serves as the best possible marketing tool for hedge funds. Look at me, the private jets and penthouse apartments say. I am successful and if you invest with me, you can be too. But he also asked this: where are the hedge fund investors who have become fabulously rich by trusting their money to such managers? And he’s still looking for them.

In his book, Lack points out that a manager can make money when the fund makes money, but that many managers make even more money when a fund’s early good returns inspire lots more people to invest in it. Taking a couple of percent off the flood of new money each year can be much more profitable than hoping for a fraction of the investment gains, and if the fund grows quickly, your wealth can, too, no matter what the returns. The incentives aren’t to nurture your customers money and make it grow, but to expand the business and bring in lots of new money.

What’s more, for a variety of reasons that Lack described, a fund’s growth usually decreases the rate of its returns. A large fund is somewhat more cumbersome and profitable opportunities are not always to scale. So you have managers becoming absurdly wealthy while overseeing a fund whose growth serves their interests, but not those of their customers.

Lack also puzzles over the problem of reporting investment gains. A fund will naturally report its gains in the most flattering light possible. What you might not realize is how much latitude there is for telling the story a fund manager wants you to hear. When reporting returns, a fund might report the growth of the investment pool. But the investment pool can grow both by getting new customers and by investment gains, so that’s not what will be experienced by any individual investor. Plus the shares of a hedge fund can be very challenging to value, and there’s a certain arbitrary nature to any answer to this question.

If a hedge fund invests in bonds, for example, do you value bonds at the price at which they were bought, or the price at which they can be sold?  These prices are different at the very moment the bonds are bought, so we’re not talking about market movements, just about the difference between a bid price and and ask price. Depending on which price the fund manager chooses to use to value the portfolio, it will affect the calculation of the fund returns, though the actual amount of money won’t change.

Furthermore, a customer’s shares might be “worth” some specified net asset value, but they might not be redeemable at that value, due to redemption limitations, withdrawal fees, or some other clause in the “partnership” contract. As I’m sure you can imagine, this is just the beginning of the confusion. The point is that when you buy shares in a hedge fund, you are putting a great deal of trust in the management of that fund, and the management holds all the information in the relationship, and has incentives that are not perfectly aligned with yours. Does that sound like a recipe for success?

Read part II.

CoC leader: ‘Discrimination is bad for business’


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biz leaders marriage equalityThe Rhode Island business community has overwhelmingly endorsed marriage equality, and largely stands opposed to the religious exemptions in the Ciccone bill.

John Duffy, president of the PR firm Duffy & Shapley and chairman of the Greater providence Chamber of Commerce was quite clear, “Discrimination is expensive and bad for business,” he said on a conference call today. “The business community stands opposed to the exemptions in the Ciccone bill.”

He said marriage equality will increase the ability of Rhode Island businesses to attract and retain top talent in our state.

Sally Lapides, president and chief executive officer of Residential Properties Ltd, says that she has specific examples of people being offered jobs and passing on offers in Rhode Island because of the discriminatory nature of of laws.

“If someone is offered a job at Yale, Harvard or Brown [they might] choose to not come to Brown because Rhode Island does not equally respect people.” She added that it is embarrassing for Rhode Island to be the only state in New England without marriage equality. Even when people choose to work in Rhode Island, they often choose to live just over the border in neighboring Massachusetts, which decreases house sales in our struggling state.

Kirsten Dichiappari, president and founder of the Chatter Group, a collaborative consulting company says that business entrepreneurs in the LGBTQ community is a fast growing business sector, and those businesses are largely avoiding setting up shop in Rhode Island.

When asked if business leaders are concerned about any kind of backlash from those opposed to marriage equality because of their stance on the issue, Matt McTighe, who spearheaded Maine’s marriage equality effort noted that experiences in states that have passed such legislation shows that it has been great for business. Non-judgmental businesses, it turns out, have a competitive advantage.

It’s really that simple.

For MetLife and Rhode Island, size matters


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Downtown Providence from the Providence River. (Photo by Bob Plain)
Downtown Providence from the Providence River. (Photo by Bob Plain)

In the brouhaha about MetLife leaving, I did see and hear people try to blame this on the too-high RI taxes. Of course; it’s always about the taxes, isn’t it? I would like to make one point about that.

For 2012, MetLife reported $1.4 Bn of operating earnings. In comparison, the $80-90 Mn of tax relief that the will receive would just register as a rounding error in any single year. But those tax savings will be spread out over a number of years. As such, they don’t even constitute a rounding error.

Any company, of any size, that makes long-term decisions based on a few years worth of tax savings is not a company that will be around long enough to realize those savings. Only a company in dire straits would make so drastic a move for so little return. Because let’s face it, the up-front investment that is required will more than eat up those tax savings. In such cases, breaking even is a good result in the real world.

No: the savings will come from other areas: lower rent vs what is being paid in the Northeast, in greater Chicago, in the SF Bay area; it will come from lower wages paid to younger workers who do not incur the disability and medical expenses an older workforce will incur; it will come from pension benefits that do not continue to accrue to said older workers, and that will not be paid at all to younger ones. That’s where the money is.

No, RI’s problem is not the tax structure. It’s the size that matters.

The sad fact of the matter is that RI does not have its own economy. RI is a pale reflection of what is happening in Boston. Nor is this a recent development: it was already true in the early 1980s. Look back at the numbers; that was the period when Dukakis was creating (or taking credit for) the “Massachusetts Miracle.” The 128 Loop was America’s Technology Highway, where high tech lived before being superseded by Silicon Valley. Massachusetts recovered sooner than most of the country from the recession of the late 1970s; RI was a couple of years behind.

Then, in the mid-eighties came the phenomenon of Woonsocket turning into a bedroom community for Boston. Same with Nashua NH. Around then the ProJo carried a story of people taking classes to lose their RI accent because they felt that companies in Boston believed that people with an RI accent were less intelligent.

So, no, this is not a new phenomenon. What I have cited is anecdotal; but the numbers in the BLS and Census, etc. will support these contentions.

Also according to the US Census, in 2000, 79% of the population of the US lived in urban areas. In states like Nevada, it’s upwards of 90%. More, 45% of the population of the US now lives in the top 20 urban areas. In the meantime, the Census Bureau also says that one-third of all counties in the country are being drained of population. What does this mean?

It means that the urban concentration that began at the end of the 19th century is continuing. More and more people are living in and around cities while other areas languish. Telecommunication, and telecommuting were supposed to make cities obsolete; the opposite is happening. Telecommuting was all the fad in the late 90s and into the new millennium; now, companies are eliminating it.

It means that, in order to compete, size is a huge factor. Charlotte NC is now the #2 financial center in the country, after NYC. It has surpassed Chicago, with its Mercantile Exchange. It is the #2 center largely because the #1 bank, Bank of America, has its HQ there, and Wells Fargo has its East Coast operations HQ there. The Charlotte Combined Statistical Area has 2.4 million people. This is not rural America anymore.

With a million people, Rhode Island cannot compete with such a center, any more that it can compete with Boston. The advantages of a large educated, concentrated workforce with good infrastructure and a compact geographical footprint are too great to overcome. This is why NYC not only continues to exist, but to thrive, in the face of all the reasons conservatives say it shouldn’t: high taxes, big government, and whatever else they complain about. Half of the wealthiest zip codes in the country are in NY and NJ, both of which are high-tax states.

RI is not losing jobs to lower tax states; RI is losing jobs because the vast majority of jobs are in these concentrated urban areas. If jobs aren’t there already, they’re relocating there. I heard a story on NPR that a growing company in Kansas could not find workers. That’s because no one is willing to relocate to a small town that depends on a single employer; what happens when that employer decides to off-shore the jobs? People are stuck in a small town without prospects. In a larger metro area, there are other jobs, or at least a greater possibility of other jobs.

Size matters. The country is not de-urbanizing. Exactly the opposite.

Addendum: The point is, MetLife made its decision to relocate to NC for its own reasons. Only then did it approach the NC government and see how much it could extort from the state’s taxpayers. In other words, MetLife got money from the state to do exactly what it would have done without the tax breaks. In fact, there have stories to this effect in the North Carolina media, complaints that the state of NC got played for chumps by a large company.

And, btw, NC in general, and Charlotte in particular, have unemployment rates that are only a couple of tenths of a percent lower than what RI and Providence has. It’s not exactly boom-town down there, either.

So, yes, NC is getting the jobs. But they would have gotten the jobs without the subsidies.  So no, it’s not about the tax rates, no matter how often or how loudly conservatives will say it is.

Family Planning: The Economics Of Kids


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I just had my second child. Due to this, my childcare bill is now over $2000 a month. As a result, almost half of my family’s take-home salary is spent on childcare and childcare related expenses. It does not surprise me when people ask why we are sending our children to daycare instead of staying home.

I usually have to take the time to explain to them that short-term economic planning in this case makes little long term sense. Every year that one of us is out of the workforce, our long term earning potential is decreased. That means that 20 years from now when our kids are grown, we will make less than we would have if we had stayed in the workforce. We also would not earn any social security credits, or have the ability to put away for retirement. That means that if one of us stays home today because it makes financial sense to do so, we are more likely to be poor when we are older.

Unfortunately, most people don’t make these types of long term decisions.

Perhaps more importantly, I know several people in which it would actually cost them more to have their kids in day care than it does for one parent to stay home. In every situation in which this has been the case, one parent has decided to stay home until their kids are in school despite the long term consequences. They simply can’t make ends meet on a day to day basis if their kids are in daycare.

So, why is this the case? Lilian Faulhaber makes a great argument in her recent NYT op-ed. She argues that the tax system systematically discourages middle class women from working. The thing is, while it is normally women, it is not always women. The tax system simply discourages middle class families from having both parents in the workforce.

While she does not address this, in his State of the Union address, the President called for funding for universal public pre-school. Having a high quality public preschool program would at least decrease the amount of time that parents stay out of the work force even if the tax code stays the same.

The Jilted Spouse


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Here’s a familiar story. A man and a woman get married when they’re young. Time passes, they age, they grow, and, before you know it, 25 years have passed. Then, one day, with no real warning, the man tells the wife that she’s too old. He’s dumping her for a younger woman who doesn’t have the wife’s expensive tastes. The wife protests, pleads, but to no avail. The husband has made up his mind. He’s leaving, selling the house, and moving out, more or less dumping the wife on the street. T0o bad.

This story is so cliche, so hackneyed, that selling it as a book or movie would be very difficult. However, it’s a story that I believe conservatives, libertarians, and–especially–capitalists love. It’s not just a story for them; it’s a paradigm, an ideal, an aspiration. They look for opportunities to do this, they lust over such opportunities to find a younger, less empowered, more pliable partner that can be browbeaten and coerced more easily than the stronger, more mature woman.

Of course, I’m not talking about marriage. It’s a parable, similar to the one told to King David after he’d arranged for the death of Bathsheba’s husband. The king became outraged, and then he was made to realize that he was the culprit.

The news just broke that yet another large, powerful corporation has decided to dump long-serving employees and replace them with younger, cheaper replacements in a warmer climate.

2o years, 3o years of service? Too bad. You’re out. We want younger, cheaper people somewhere that has a lower standard of living. Your loyalty? Who freaking cares?

When I have suggested that corporations behave in such a manner, I’ve been met with howls of protest from the corporate lackeys, who call me a hater, an anti-corporate socialist (somehow, the lowest form of life). When I provide examples, like the one above, I’m called a liar. And yet there are several hundred (the exact number is hard to pin down) families in RI and environs having grim dinner time conversations because the job that’s been there, to which they’ve given their youth and the best years of their life is being pulled out from under them. There was no warning. Just a hastily-assembled meeting or phone call.

And then there will be those howling that this is what companies have to do to take care of their shareholders. What a load of crap. Moves like this, generally, provide a quick bump in stock price, but have almost zero long-term positive effect on stock price. What they do impact are bonuses; the ones who made the “tough choices” are amply rewarded while those suffering the tough consequences are often left twisting in the wind.

And whatever happened to the employer’s loyalty to its employees? I believe that Econ 101 teaches that an employer will nurture its valuable employees because of the value they add. Funny, the people screaming that minimum wage increases will cost jobs because “that’s just Econ 101” must have been hungover and slept through class the day that employer loyalty was discussed. I keep going back to Henry Ford, but the dude was almost violently anti-communist, and this is why he decided to pay his good employees enough to keep them. He knew he was buying their loyalty, and paying them enough to be able to buy his product.

IOW, he took the long-term view, which today’s short-term managers almost never do. For most of today’s managers–and that’s all that CEOs are, for the most part: hired help, not the steely-eyed builders of a business as per the Ayn Rand fantasy world–are all well-schooled in the I’ll Be Gone school of management. This teaches: “loot the company, make your money, and leave before the chickens come home to roost.”

The other issue that conservatives claim is that people who lose their jobs are responsible. So tell me: how do several hundred people all screw up so badly as individually that they get fired collectively? How does that work? Outside of the Ayn Rand fantasy world? All of them? All at once?

No, their collective sin is that they’ve stayed too long. They’ve been loyal employees, through thick and thin, for better and for worse, in sickness (by coming to work instead of taking care of themselves) and in health, through good times and bad. So their collective reward is to be told that the company is moving south; of course, they’re welcome to apply for their old job, but they might end up with a pay cut.

This, so the company can pay people at the lower end of a lower scale, and, not coincidentally, get rid of older employees whose health has perhaps deteriorated–perhaps because they worked when they should have been home sick–and replace them with employees that are not only younger, but in better health. So they won’t cost so much in sick time or disability leave. And of course, the long-service employees will no longer be able to fund the pension that they were guaranteed when they signed on, limiting future pension liability. And of course, the new hires won’t get anything as archaic as pensions, even though the evidence against the efficacy of 401(k) programs is starting to mount. No, grind out your life working until the magic day you drop dead. And, btw, be so kind as to do that sooner rather than later. The corporate overlords thank you for your consideration.

So welcome to the working world, in this brave new millennium. Because this is exactly how things are, my friends. Welcome to the working world–just don’t expect to stay too long.

Rhetoric: RI Can’t Do That Because Of Bad Economy


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The State House in late November. (Photo by Bob Plain)

One of the arguments being used by anti-marriage equality forces is the argument that we need to fix the economy first before we can focus on marriage. It’s a classic false dichotomy, and one marriage equality advocates have responded to by pointing out the economic benefits of allowing same-sex couples to marry. But this type of rhetoric is always bad.

Yes, the House and Senate Judiciary Committees do have other matters to consider. However, very few of those matters pertain to the economy and instead are all about law and justice. So marriage equality falls right under what they should be looking at.

The argument is basically positing that marriage equality legislation is a distraction from examining our economy. But if that was the case, where were the people who were so concerned about the economy that no other bills can be passed when Voter ID was enacted? Where were they when the General Assembly issued numerous commemorative license plates? Why didn’t they oppose Frank’s Law? Why didn’t they protest every other non-economic bill that made it through the General Assembly since Fall 2008?

The truth is that though the General Assembly only has finite time to pass and debate legislation, they’re not people who can’t pass more than one piece of legislation at a time. Contrary to our worst pessimists’ opinions, General Assembly members can, in fact, chew gum and walk at the same time. Marriage equality will take exactly as long to pass as its opponents want it to. If they feel it’s necessary to make it a distraction from economic issues, they’re the ones who will be responsible for doing so. The House speedily passed their bill and then moved on to other matters, like the economy.

Government doesn’t grind to a halt merely because the economy is bad. Economies are fickle things, complex problems that require study and thought. People spend whole lives trying to figure out how to solve economic problems and then die, and they’re still wrong! Comparatively, marriage equality is a no-brainer. It’s an easy question to answer. Do you believe that two people, regardless of their genders, should be able to have their love recognized by this state? That’s it. It takes less than a second to answer. And then you vote.


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