Weak GOP turnout more evidence RI moving left


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2016-04-25 TRUMP 025Bernie Sanders’s surprise double-digit win was undeniably the big story of the night, but progressives can find even more good news from the turnout numbers.  At 121,923, total Democratic turnout was a whopping 98.6 percent higher than the GOP’s 61,394. To put this in perspective, Obama only won 77.9 percent more votes than Romney.

To make these results even more stunning, the media’s insistence on over-covering Donald Trump should have juiced the GOP’s numbers, and the media narrative that the Democratic race is over should have depressed the Democratic numbers. But apparently not. The GOP also benefited from a three-way race, which should boost turnout over a two-way like the Democratic contest. Even with these advantages, Democrats solidly outperformed Republicans in turnout.

Unfortunately, some pundits have spun these results as good news for the GOP, pointing to the fact that GOP turnout was up over the 2008 primary. But that analysis conveniently forgets that John McCain had already sown up the Republican nomination by the time Rhode Island voted, while the Obama/Clinton race was very hotly contested.

In the real world, it is difficult to interpret these results as anything but more evidence that Rhode Island is moving to the left. On the right, some Republicans believe that voter anger at the right-wing Democratic establishment’s policies will deliver a red wave in November. Some pundits have begun parroting their talking points. Channel 10 political analyst Wendy Schiller even posited that Donald Trump might win Rhode Island.  Fortunately, it looks like Rhode Islanders are too smart to vote for Trump.  If these turnout numbers hold, the Republican Party will have a rough November in our state.

Langevin defends voting with GOP on Syrian refugee bill


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Jim LangevinCongressman Jim Langevin defended his support of a GOP-backed bill that would add more layers of bureaucracy to the process of accepting Syrian and Iraqi refugees.

“After reading the bill, I was convinced that it does not stop the process, it really doesn’t shut the program down, nor does it significantly slow it,” Langevin told RI Future in an interview, which you can listen to in its entirety below. “It added modest layer of new security in terms of the vetting process but nothing that would shut down or significantly slow the vetting process, and that’s ultimately why I supported it.”

He said it wasn’t difficult to vote against President Obama, who strongly urged Democrats not to support the Republican-backed bill. “All of my decisions are based on the merits. They don’t belong to a particular party or special interest.”

Langevin, who told me he didn’t see State Sen. Elaine Morgan’s comments about Islam and Muslim refugees, said he thinks the United States should accept more Syrian refugees than the 10,000 Obama has called for – and that he thinks the government should add resources to ensure the refugee process moves quicker.

“I strongly support additional resources that will expedite the process,” he said. “The best thing we can do to make sure we’re not slowing the process down is put more resources into vetting so we can speed it up.”

When asked how he thinks Rhode Islanders feel about the issue, he said, “I’ve heard from people on both sides of this issue.”

You can listen to our full 20 minute conversation on his vote in particular and the Syrian refugee crisis in general here:

Eric Loomis on Bernie vs. Hillary: not as critical as defeating GOP

loomis2Bernie Sanders would only be a slightly more progressive president than Hillary Clinton, said Erik Loomis when I asked him which candidate he was supporting in 2016.

“I don’t think it matters very much,” said the URI history professor who will be discussing his new book Out of Sight next week – Wednesday, Nov. 18 from 5:30 to 7:30 at AS220. Earlier this week, RI Future interviewed Loomis about his book, and the TPP.

“This is out of no love for Hillary Clinton that I’m saying this,” Loomis explained. “My guess is that a Bernie Sanders presidency for progressives is about 10 percent better than a Hillary Clinton presidency because of the limitations and structure of American politics.”

Though he said a Sanders presidency would be more likely to oppose a trade deal like TPP than Clinton, he said the two Democratic candidates will likely be facing the same conservative Congress and courts.

“We have to stop thinking strictly through presidential politics as the answer,” he explained. “We’re never going to elect the right person. That’s not how power works. That’s not how the world changes. It’s not how it’s ever changed. It changes from below. It has to come through from people organizing on the ground.”

He said it was was more important to focus on defeating the Republican Party than which Democrat to nominate. “Where the rubber meets the road in 2015 is defeating the Republican Party who actually wants to literally bring us back to the era of the 1890’s and we don’t want that,” he said.

out_of_sight

Poem: ‘April Fools’


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November 9th, Twenty-Sixteen
Words crawl across my TV screen:
GOP WINS THE WHITE HOUSE BACK
My chest felt like a heart attack

I called my friends so we could grieve
Some were packing, ready to leave
Others asked me, “How could we lose?”
Still others drowned their tears in booze

The only hope we could embrace
Lay with the House and Senate race
But red states were on a roll
Republicans took full control

The first sign things weren’t like before
My doc moved to a Walmart store
ObamaCare – too socialized
So now all healthcare’s privatized

Keystone pipeline that wasn’t built
Assured us that no oil was spilt
Now crude is pumped in each time zone
With fracking sites in Yellowstone

Small business climbed out of its rut
Now that minimum wage got cut
The Equal Pay for Women Act?
Big biz made sure it wasn’t backed

Immigration is finally fixed
Thanks to a border wall of bricks
Built by any Mexican who
Gets an ID number tattoo

Guns and books are now the rule
Arming teachers in every school
Bus drivers too, and postal clerks
Ready for whatever danger lurks

America gets even worse
Lucky for you I’m out of verse
Suffice to say if this comes true
The April Fools are me and you

c2015pn
Read Peet Nourjian’s previous poems here.

Revenge of the Swamp Yankee: Democratic disaster in South County


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south county votes fung
From the 11 South County communities.

While there was jubilation in the Rhode Island Democratic Party election night party because of the biggest sweep since 1960, that mood was not shared by Democrats in South County.

From Exeter to Westerly, Democrats, and especially progressive Democrats, took an awful beating in General Assembly and Town Council races. Majorities in several South County towns also shifted from blue to red in their votes for state offices.

Since I started living in South County in 2002 and covering local politics at Progressive Charlestown, I had enjoyed watching what seemed to be a steady shift from the region’s historic Swamp Yankee conservatism to more progressive politics. South County sent a high proportion of solid blue Democrats to the State House and voted mostly Blue in state and national races.

But that changed on November 4.

Of the 11 South County communities, only four voted for Gina Raimondo over Allan Fung.

In addition to going GOP for governor, South County lost three terrific progressives – my own state Representative Donna Walsh, Sen. Cathie Cool Rumsey and Rep. Larry Valencia. Each of them faced appallingly unqualified opponents. Donna Walsh lost to a radical “Tenther” who doesn’t even seem to live in the District. Cathie Cool Rumsey lost to Hopkinton’s honorific Town Sheriff who was caught using her uniform to impersonate a police officer.

Larry Valencia lost to a guy whose only previous experience was running as a delegate to the Republican National Convention as a delegate for Ron Paul – and who came in fifth out of five.

In Charlestown, we were totally crushed, losing every single elected office in the town to a group called the Charlestown Citizens Alliance (CCA Party), an off-shoot of the RI Statewide Coalition. If you mixed the Tea Party with the Nature Conservancy and the worst rich people’s homeowners association you can imagine, you’d get something that looks like the CCA.

The CCA Party gets more than 60% of its funding from out of state donors. They provide vacation property owners with the ability to vote with their checkbooks in local elections. The CCA Party has increasingly put Charlestown on a “pay to play” basis where the attention you get from town government is in proportion to the amount you donate to the CCA Party.

But those of us in Charlestown were not alone in our misery. Exeter Democrats also took a terrible beating. Exeter rejected all five state general office winners and provided winning margins for Tea Party Rep. Doreen Costa (R) to be re-elected and for progressive Sen. Cathie Cool Rumsey (D) to be ousted.

It was only 11 months ago that Exeter Democrats rallied to crush a gun lobby-sponsored recall of their Democratic Town Council majority. The “Exeter Four” won a huge victory last December 14 only to see two of the four defeated on November 4, costing them the Town Council majority. The level and sophistication of campaigning in Exeter for the general election bore little resemblance to the way Exeter Democrats won last year’s recall.

Larry Valencia’s home base in Richmond also went very bad. Voters rejected the state slate except for Seth Magaziner and also flipped their Town Council from a Democratic majority to Republican control.

Even in Westerly, a Democratic stronghold, Democrats lost control of the Town Council. So it went in North Kingstown, Narragansett and Hopkinton. When the dust settled, the only solidly Democratic town left in South County is South Kingstown.

South Kingstown was the only municipality not swept up in the red tide. South Kingstown was one of only three South County towns to vote for all five Democratic state office candidates. They also re-elected progressive Democrat Rep. Teresa Tanzi by six points despite a $100,000+ campaign mounted against her by mortgage banker Steve Tetzner.

In another closely watched race, South Kingstown also elected Democrat Kathy Fogarty over her Republican opponent, Lacey McGreevey. Fogarty defeated incumbent Rep. Spencer Dickinson in the primary to get her shot at the seat. She won the general election by 16 points.

On top of all that, South Kingstown voters also elected three Democrats and two independents to their Town Council. One of those independents is RI Sierra Club lobbyist Abel Collins.

So what happened?

Like elsewhere in the country, 2014 voter turn-out in South County was low. It was lower than expected even considering the normal drop-off in non-presidential election years.

In Charlestown, we expected turn-out to drop by 900 from the 2012 count for the presidential race. But the drop-off ended up being more than 1,100. With a total voter registration of just over 6,000, that drop-off had a huge impact on the results.

Challengers to incumbents trumpeted the state GOP’s lead issue – 38 Studios – 24/7. Forget that it was unlamented ex-Governor Donald Carcieri’s (R) idea. However, 38 Studios did not affect the state office races or act as much more than buzzkill in most races. Even Republican Attorney General candidate Dawson Hodgson, who probably banged the 38 Studios drum the loudest, admitted after the election that maybe the issue wasn’t so potent after all.

However, 38 Studios may have had a disproportional effect among our South County Swamp Yankees as it was in just about every one of the many mailers, ads and flyers attacking Democrats.

In many South County races, the conservatives out-spent and out-hustled Democrats. In the House District 36 race, Rep. Donna Walsh’s “Tenther” opponent out-spent her 13-to-1 going into the final month.

But money doesn’t always make the difference, as re-elected Rep. Teresa Tanzi can attest. Tetzner went into the final stretch of the campaign having raised three times as much money than Tanzi, mostly through loans he made to his campaign. Tetzner outspent Tanzi by six to one, but she still won.

By contrast, progressive incumbents Larry Valencia and Cathie Cool Rumsey both out-raised and out-spent their Republican opponents, Justin Price and Elaine Morgan respectively, by wide margins, but still lost.

After reviewing Price’s and Morgan’s campaign finance reports, it looks to me that there was a lot more money in their campaigns than they reported. Morgan, for example, reports having spent only $322 on her campaign up to the last week, but she had campaign signs plastered all over Richmond, Exeter and Hopkinton as well as campaign mailers. She only reported $444 in in-kind donations.

There are still unresolved pieces of the puzzle. At some point, Rep. Donna Walsh will get a hearing in front of the state Board of Elections on her charge that her opponent lied about where he lives and is not really a resident of the 36th District. There may be charges filed in other campaigns for misreporting, ethics violations or campaign sabotage. There are a few recounts to be done of some races for town office.

But in the end, there is a new political reality in South County.

Perhaps with more time and perspective, we’ll be able to figure out what went wrong, but we now live with the reality that on November 4, South County flipped from blue to red. We have to figure out how to flip it back.

Block and Fung: mutual disrespect


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fung block
Click here for the full debate.

Republican gubernatorial candidates Allan Fung and Ken Block both support Common Core, cutting taxes, shrinking government, federal – not local – immigration reform and a women’s right to an abortion.

And despite admitting they would support the other in the general election during Tuesday night’s WPRI/Providence Journal debate, the thing they seem to agree on the most is the belief that their opponent would be a bad governor of Rhode Island.

Fung called Block a “political opportunist” and “not a real Republican.” He said he “has a difficult time reading municipal budgets” about an accounting error Block admitted to. “How can we trust him” with the state budget, he asked.

Block, on the other hand, said Fung is too familiar with local government. “If you’re happy with Rhode Island the way it is, vote for my opponent, or one of the other Democrats,” he said during his closing remarks.

At different points during the debate, they each paraphrased Ronald Reagan’s famous “there you go again” quip to Jimmy Carter. They each blamed the other for the negative tone of the campaign.

“This campaign has been full of venom, vile and half truths,” Block said. “We didn’t start the negativity. You have to respond at some point, anyone who watches politics knows it.”

Fung responded, “I think the viewers of Rhode Island see where much of the negativity and half truths have been coming from in tonight’s debate.”

They even both agreed they didn’t know yet whether they support Education Commissioner Deborah Gist’s recent decision to delay implementing a high stakes test graduation requirement. (Don’t forget, she was appointed by Republican Gov. Don Carcieri)

One rare instance of policy disagreement came on unemployment insurance.

Block says unemployment insurance in Rhode Island covers more seasonal employees than in other states. “We must fix it,” Block said. “There’s no more Republican ideal than having those who heavily use the system pay their fair share.”

But Fung counters that Block is effectively advocating for raising taxes on seasonal businesses such as those in tourism, agriculture and construction. “That is going to crush the seasonal industry,” he said. “I would not support tax raises to those seasonal industries.”

Both, however, agree that the economic burden is best dealt with at the employee level.

Fake Facebook page costs Chuck Newton job and role with EG GOP Committee


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chuck newtonNot only did GOP operative Chuck Newton lose his State House job for helping Senator Nick Kettle mock a Democratic colleague with a fake Facebook page, but the move also cost him his position with the East Greenwich Republican Town Committee. He resigned from his position as chairman earlier this week, according to East Greenwich Town Council President Michael Isaacs.

Newton (a former employer of mine) is still listed as the chairman on the group’s webpage.

“Chuck accepted responsibility,” said Isaacs, who has advocated for less anonymous political attacks on the internet. “I think the whole thing, it was almost sophomoric. Unfortunately it’s indicative of the negativity that pervades politics on both sides.”

Senator Dawson Hodgson, a Republican who represents East Greenwich and is running for attorney general, agreed.

“I thought that was appropriate [that Newton be fired] because he created that in his state office on state time and we as a Republican Party stand for wise use of public resources and that is not consistent with how we operate.”

Hodgson said he did not believe a crime was committed. Steve Brown, executive director of the RI ACLU, agreed.

In a letter to Attorney General Peter Kilmartin, Brown wrote, “Indeed, as you are aware, the courts have set a very high standard for public officials to pursue even civil actions against political invective. If the broadsides on this Facebook page constitute unlawful “harassment,” then The Daily Show, the Colbert Report, and dozens of other political web sites engage in criminal activity every day.”

Amy Kempe, spokewoman for Kilmartin, said the Attorney General’s office is still waiting for a complete report from police. “It underscores the loopholes in current statutes,” she said. “We’re trying to add in online impersonation.”

Kempe said the AG’s office will consider stand alone legislation for online impersonation this year instead of bundling it with other provisions.

Rep. Scott Guthrie said he is considering bringing federal charges.

Why red states love voter ID


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Voter-ID-4A North Carolina Republican, who declines to distance himself from racism, admits that voter ID laws are designed to give Republicans an electoral advantage. Which, I suppose makes some strategic sense for a Republican-leaning state with a recent history of racism like North Carolina. But why does Rhode Island have a voter ID law?

Watch the not-funny-because-it’s-true Daily Show segment here, in which Aasif Mandvi suggests Democrats level the playing field by suppressing Republican turnout with, among other ploys, “Jesus didn’t vote” bumper stickers.

The segment also features Civil Rights hero and Georgia Congressman John Lewis who will be in Rhode Island later this week for the Providence NAACP’s 100th Annual Freedom Fund Awards Dinner.

This Daily Show segment on voter repression is pretty good too:

Are Rhode Island Republicans gun nuts?

gunnutOne of the most interesting outcomes to the Rhode Island Republican Party raffling off a semi-automatic machine gun is that it shows how truly disparate the different wings of the conservative movement in the Ocean State are.

For example, while Justin Katz posted this on Twitter: “Memo to RI conservatives: Stand against the prudes’ moral bullying. It will only continue to expand.”

Meanwhile, the Rhode Island Young Republicans posted this to Facebook:

Eight emails have hit my inbox today re: the insensitivity of the RI GOP’s semi automatic gun raffle, and some new attendees’ concerns re: attending a republican event tomorrow. PLEASE note that the YRs are not beholden to the state party, have no funding from them (all of our events are self-funded or sponsored by the Roosevelt Society), and tend to have a very different tone. The only connection is that by charter, the chairman (me) sits on their E-board (although to be honest, we’ve only had one e-board meeting since we came into existence, so impact is non existent). Tomorrow night with Commissioner Gist is NOT a RI GOP event. We look forward to continuing to promote the big tent philosophy, and being the next generation’s problem solvers (Lord knows we have a lot to work with).

It seems both the Democratic and Republican parties are suffering from somewhat similar ideological rifts on how to handle the politics of guns.

Gist won’t meet with students, will meet with GOP


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gist memeThe Providence Student Union, a group of inner city high school students who have made national news organizing against high stakes testing, have begged Deborah Gist to engage them and she has systematically rebuffed their requests. She’s even has gone so far as to publicly encourage others to ignore them.

On the other hand, she’ll gladly make time for the Rhode Island Young Republicans.

Ignoring student activists and engaging conservative politicians is just one of the many ways Gist continues to be a divisive force in public education. On Friday, she claimed to have not read a report that was critical of teacher evaluations, a major initiative of hers and, not to mention, the subject of her PhD thesis.

Yesterday on Twitter her disdain for her detractors was more subtle but still present. Providence mayoral candidate Jorge Elorza said he disagreed with the NECAP but not high stakes tests in general. Gist felt that was “Excellent news!” for her. It was disturbingly more political than that of the candidate’s. More worrisome is that Gist missed the gist of the tweet – yet another public voice against the NECAP test. She’s seemingly deaf when it comes to any and all disagreement.

The Rhode Island Progressive Democrats and/or the Young Democrats of Rhode Island ought to ask her to come talk to their groups as well.

Occam’s razor: GOP is weak because RI is progressive


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No RepublicansSam Howard has accomplished some of the best quantitative analysis of local elections that you will ever see produced by an unpaid journalist in his ongoing series about why mixed-member proportional voting would alter Rhode Island politics and power structures. And yesterday Ted Nesi touched on the same subject in a piece about why the Ocean State would benefit from more competitive elections. Meanwhile, it turns out Ken Block is considering running for governor as Republican rather than a Moderate.

All three events point to a similar conclusion: that a more influential GOP would improve political discourse in the Ocean State. Well … making political discourse less one-sided is a good thing only if it ALSO makes it more representational of the people the politics purports to represent.

As Nesi points out, mainstream party labels do little to describe local politicians:

“…Rhode Island Republicans have a good point – local officeholders deal with a whole range of issues that don’t easily fit into the national parties’ widely recognized platforms. If you tell me what position someone takes on Obamacare or climate change, I could probably tell you which party he or she belongs to – but I still couldn’t tell you what he thinks about mandatory parking minimums or actuarial standards for pension plans.”

I’m sure both Block and Howard would agree – though Block may feel this “good point” belongs to Moderates and Howard progressives. All three actually make the same good point – but it’s most applicable to progressives who, electorally at least, far outnumber both Republicans and Moderates in Rhode Island.

Remember Occam’s razor, the notion that the explanation with the fewest assumptions is most likely right. In other words, why assume our elections and or party structure is broken when it’s much more likely that a state with a strong blue collar, union tradition and a pristine, well-protected environment would attract anything other than a bunch of liberal-minded voters?

So why then are we seeking ways to make our politics more inclusive of of a party system that doesn’t represent our community’s political ethos?

A simpler and more holistic solution would be to make local elections nonpartisan. Of course, this has the same snowball’s chance in hell of happening as does doing away with the master lever or instituting mixed-member proportional voting…

Hopefully this would address the real disconnect between Rhode Islanders and the people we elect to public office instead of artificially giving conservatives more influence than they deserve.

Progress Report: Legalized Pot’s Economic Benefits; John Loughlin and the Future of the GOP; Rabies on Prudence


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It’s interesting to note that the potential piece of 2013 legislation that has garnered the most media attention since the election isn’t tax equity, marriage equality or pay day lending reform … it’s marijuana legalization. At least it’s the only bill to get front page ProJo coverage so far (though I think that story’s lede is somewhere shy of being unbiased).

Now, some may argue that making it easier to get high isn’t as important as dealing with our struggling economy, but there’s no shortage of economic benefits to legalization.

Rhode Island spends $40 million annually on marijuana prohibition – that’s more than it costs to have a state legislature! The public defenders office estimates legalization would save taxpayers $12 million a year (read this letter the office sent legislators last session for more info). Does anyone want to argue that Rhode Islanders needs to punish pot smokers more than we need $12 million?

John Loughlin tells RIPR that the local GOP needs to move left on the same day that party chairman Mark Zaccaria said he won’t seek another term. I speculated last night that he might make a good fit to replace Zaccaria. GoLocal adds some to it this morning.

Scott MacKay has more on why the Republican party is in such dire straights: because they don’t even seem to realize just how out of touch they have become with the American people. (Plus he throws in an awesome Catamount reference).

Dan McGowan also chimed in on the tales of woe for the local GOP. Some quick thoughts on his piece: Demographics were not the problem for the GOP, nor was it the national brand. To put it real simply, Rhode Islanders are on balance more liberal than Republicans.

ICYMI, you may also want to read Sam Howard’s thoughts on this topic that we ran earlier this week.

The lesson in the dispute between Providence and the labor union that represents municipal workers there: get it in writing.

Prudence Island is a really bad place for wildlife rabies, ecologically speaking.

NPR: “Want to help Sandy victims? Send cash not clothes.”

Thanks to my buddy Bill Felkner for sending along this article about the Westerly firewood dealer who charges more for a cord to Obama voters than Romney supporters. The lesson here for wood stove owners might be to get your supply in the spring, when both political and economic forces drive the price down…

RI Progress Report: Gemma, GOP visits and Gist


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As Anthony Gemma prepares to ramp up his primary campaign against David Cicilline, election experts handicap his path to victory. We’d like to know why Democrats should vote for an abortion-deploring, trickle down economist? Answer: they shouldn’t. We’d prefer Gemma run as a independent as we’re not really sure what it is that makes him a Democrat.

Speaking of Republicans, it seems Rhode Island can expect visits from both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum before the presidential primary on April 24.

Management and labor alike should appreciate Education Commissioner Deborah Gist’s efforts to eliminate the “redundancies” in the teacher evaluation process, which some principals said was taking as long as 20 hours per teacher.

Once you factor in the politics of what’s practical, it seems Obama’s budget proposal would actually reduce the deficit more than the House GOP version. Here’s more on this phenomenon.

Not a good trend for Rhode Island: “Concentrated poverty is becoming more concentrated.”

Seems the U.S. has been training Iranian opposition forces in the Nevada desert. If history is any indicator, look for these same guys to be our sworn enemies in the future.

Michael Riley, a Republican, officially launches his campaign for Congress, seeking to unseat Jim Langevin.

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This page may be updated throughout the day. Click HERE for an archive of the RI Progress Report.