Another ‘Munich Moment’


Deprecated: Function get_magic_quotes_gpc() is deprecated in /hermes/bosnacweb08/bosnacweb08bf/b1577/ipg.rifuturecom/RIFutureNew/wp-includes/formatting.php on line 4387

Deprecated: Function get_magic_quotes_gpc() is deprecated in /hermes/bosnacweb08/bosnacweb08bf/b1577/ipg.rifuturecom/RIFutureNew/wp-includes/formatting.php on line 4387

Munich-MomentIn a conference call on Syria with House members this past Monday Secretary of State John Kerry called this a “Munich moment.”  My throat clenched up as I read yet one more in an endless series of references to Neville Chamberlain’s ill-advised attempt at peacemaking with Adolf Hitler in 1938.

Let’s start with a stipulation: The use of chemical weapons is barbaric and ought not to be tolerated. I believe this, and probably you do, too. No one is arguing about this.

However, I don’t know about you, but I have had it up to here with people trotting out the ghost of Neville Chamberlain whenever there is a war to be waged. It’s offensive and silly for two reasons. The first is that it implicitly compares every bad guy to Hitler. Bashar al Assad is certainly not my kind of guy, but he has not turned his nation into a war-making expansionist machine that threatens his neighbors with its designs on their territory. (Though of course he is no friend of Israel.)  Assad is a dictator fighting a brutal civil war against mostly domestic opponents, many of whom are no friends of ours. He is also not a threat to the United States. Apart from the dictator bit, the comparison to Hitler fails on every count, from the war aims to the mustache.

The other reason invoking Chamberlain’s ghost is offensive is this: Munich was in 1938. Was Neville Chamberlain the last guy to make a foreign policy mistake?  Is Secretary Kerry telling us that no one since then has made enough of a mistake to learn lessons from?  Does he have nothing to learn from, oh, I don’t know, Lyndon Johnson?

Johnson liked to refer to Munich, too, and in 1965 used the comparison to say that surrender in Vietnam would encourage the aggression of the North Vietnamese.  This was the moment that Johnson essentially Americanized the Vietnam war. With 48 years to think about it, would Secretary Kerry agree with Johnson’s assessment now?

How about the Bush gang who brought us war in Iraq?  They were all over the Chamberlain analogy.  In 2002 Donald Rumsfeld said that looking for proof of Saddam Hussein’s weapons programs was “appeasement” akin to Munich. With 11 years to think about it, would Kerry agree with Rumsfeld’s assessment now?

Here’s some news: since Chamberlain’s dumb mistake in 1938, we fought WWII, but we also fought wars in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, the Balkans, Somalia, Afghanistan, Grenada, Panama, and probably others I’m forgetting. Do we have no lessons to learn from those adventures? How about all the proxy wars we had others fight for us in Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Angola, Laos, Afghanistan and the rest?  Is Neville Chamberlain more relevant to a decision about war today than all of that blood and treasure spilt?

And beyond all that, please Secretary Kerry, tell me again why I should believe the intelligence assessment that supposedly guarantees the chemical attacks really were the work of Assad’s army?  On whose credibility would I rely should I believe those reports?  Would those be the same agencies that told me so clearly false things about weapons in Iraq?  So far as I can tell, the evidence in Syria remains quite cloudy. For example, the relevant UN agencies do not agree that the responsibility for the attack is clear. Claims of certainty are little more than the usual stance of the charlatan.

President Obama went even farther than Kerry. He said, about the use of chemical weapons: “The moral thing to do is not to stand by and do nothing.”  He later added, “I do have to ask people if in fact you’re outraged by the slaughter of innocent people, what are you doing about it?”

This is a legitimate challenge, and the civilized world has struggled with it for decades. However, the struggle is not a struggle simply to find answers to the question. We do not lack for answers; we lack for good answers. We have plenty of experience with answers that are ineffectual, wasteful, and expensive. These are bad answers, and I’m tired of our nation’s routine answer that seems mostly to consist of blowing things up, shooting people, and getting our soldiers shot and blown up in turn.

To some, the President’s failure to muster international support for action against Syria means we must take up the task ourselves. To me, the failure means that the world isn’t ready or able to enforce a ban on chemical weapons. While I agree that this is tragic, I don’t agree that a solo strike against Syria will make it any better.

Sanctions, boycotts, frozen assets, arguments in the Hague — all these things are far less cathartic than the fantasy of justice delivered on the tip of a cruise missile. But when you consider the uncertainty of the intelligence and the muddle of the Syrian civil war, the likelihood of such a missile even being aimed at an appropriate target seem very small, let alone hitting it. I believe there are other solutions to find, and that we owe it to ourselves and to the rest of the world to seek them.

Please, for once, let’s consider the limits of power. Is it disloyal to point out that history teaches other lessons besides Neville Chamberlain’s?  Is it unpatriotic to care about blood and treasure? Is it treasonous to suggest that the most powerful country on earth is not actually omnipotent?

It’s tempting to fantasize how easy solutions would be if we could just storm in and knock some heads. But Captain America is a comic-book figure, not a model after which to fashion our armed forces. Here in the real world, problems are difficult to solve because they are complicated. The easy answers are bad ones. Unleashing more violence on war-torn Syria is nothing more than a seemingly easy solution that will do more harm than good. I beg our congressional delegation not to go along with the easy march to regrettable violence. Some will moan about losing “credibility”, but that is not the only object of value to protect. In the end, our nation will be stronger tomorrow for restraint today.

Around the U.S. in 50 Days: New Mexico

Just as Democrats see an opportunity in Arizona, especially in a vacant Senate seat, Republicans should see a greater chance in neighboring New Mexico. Most of the news revolves around the retirement of and replacement for Democratic Senator Jeff Bingaman.

For President, the state has been becoming increasingly blue with each successive election and 2012 should not be any different. This state will go for Obama and probably by the same margin as in 2008. Most of the growth in population occurred in the Albuquerque area and like most western states, it has a growing Hispanic population- two demographics that generally favor Democrats.

For the Democratic nomination to succeed Bingaman, Martin Heinrich will vacate the Albuquerque-based 1st District. With former Lt. Governor Diane Denish and Rep. Ben Lujan pulling out early, the race becomes Heinrich’s to lose. He will have to go through a primary that features state auditor Hector Balderas and social activist Andres Valdez. Originally, ex-Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez declared his candidacy, but pulled out to run not against Heinrich, but for his House seat. On the Republican side are businessman Bill English, Lt. Governor John Sanchez and ex-Representative Heather Wilson. Wilson formerly represented the Democratic-leaning 1st District and won her races in 2000 and 2004 by comfortable margins despite it also voting for Gore and Kerry. Hence, one would have to surmise that this race will pit two fairly well-known and liked candidates in Heinrich versus Wilson. The fact Wilson can win in a Democratic leaning district and by comfortable margins (her closest call came in 2006) gives her a leg up here. Given the stakes (like the balance of the Senate), this could be an expensive race with lots of outside money. While many Republicans are drooling over Nebraska, North Dakota and possibly Florida for Senatorial pick ups, they would be remiss in their duties if they overlook New Mexico.

New Mexico has three House seats currently 2-1 for the Democrats. There is no drama in the 2nd where Republican Steve Pearce should win nor in the 3rd where Democrat Ben Lujan should win. That leaves the vacant 1st District. This is an interesting, compact district where one would expect Democrats to actually perform better. However, Heinrich is the first Democrat to win the district in 2008 after Wilson left to run for Senate against Tom Udall. In 2008, he won by 12 points only to see that support dissipate to 4 points two years later. The first Democrat to enter the race was state senator Eric Griego who came out blasting Washington Republicans. Because certain “blue dog Democrats” were considering a run, progressive groups early jumped behind Griego with money and vocal support. However, he will have stiff competition against an old rival in the ex-Mayor of Albuquerque, Martin Chavez. In fact, Griego ran to the left of Chavez for Mayor in 2005 and lost by over 20 points after being outspent by Chavez 4-1. Chavez eventually lost the mayor’s job over incumbent fatigue and a small scandal over favoring city contracts, an issue which should resurface in the course of a primary or general election campaign.

They have already had spats. Chavez has been described by New Mexico Democratic operatives as the perfect fit for this moderate district. Hence, he is a moderate. One of his first mailings was to blast Republicans for insisting on the possibility of Social Security and Medicare cuts as part of the debt ceiling deal. This leftist rhetoric, including the “Republicans are for the rich and I am for the middle class and poor” stump lines, caught the attention of Griego who released a bitter and sarcastic response to Chavez’s suddenly more liberal stances. He insinuated that Chavez was trying to repaint himself as more liberal than what he really has shown in the past. Compounding matters is the fact that Bernalillo County commissioner Michele Lujan Grisham has entered the race. This will be a bruising primary battle that can only help the Republicans.

For Republicans, they believe they have a 50/50 shot at the seat, although the odds are more like 35-45%. One time Albuquerque City Councilman Dan Lewis entered the race and raised over $100,000 in the first quarter of his run. And former state representative Janice Arnold-Jones has also entered the race. One should not count out the possibility that Jon Barela, who lost by 4 points to Heinrich in 2010, may enter this race. He currently is secretary of the state’s Economic Development Department and an endorsement from Hispanic Republican and fairly popular New Mexico Governor Sue Martinez would go a long way here. Although it should be an interesting and close race, I believe the Democrats will eventually prevail in a very close race and keep the delegation 2-1 in their favor.

In conclusion, Obama takes their five electoral votes while Heather Wilson wins a hard-fought, somewhat expensive and eventually close race against Martin Heinrich while a Democrat will hold the 1st District for another two years thus leaving no pick ups for the GOP in this state.

Running totals thus far:

  • Obama with 83 electoral votes to 36 for the GOP nominee;
  • Net gain of two Governors;
  • Net gain of one Senate seat, and;
  • Net loss of 4 Republican House seats