Divide between Taveras, Raimondo: how they play the game


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raimondo taverasI agree with Sam Howard who suggests there isn’t a giant gap in the policy priorites of Angel Taveras and Gina Raimondo, but I don’t think that means there would be many other similarities in how each would governor Rhode Island.

On WPRI Newsmakers Sunday, Ted Nesi asked Taveras about a post Howard wrote on this blog, specifically: “I don’t see much, policy-wise, that differentiates the two candidates. I think Gov. Raimondo will make policy choices that a Gov. Taveras would also make, and vice versa.”

Taveras dove into his well-versed “Head Start to Harvard” campaign narrative and Nesi responded: “But I think that’s Howard’s point, you will have different biographies but then once you take office you both will govern in pretty similar center-left Democratic fashion.”

I don’t think they would govern in similar styles and I haven’t seen tons of evidence that Raimondo will govern in a center-left Democratic fashion. Or, at least, that’s certainly not how she accomplished her signature political victory.

Here’s how Bob Walsh, executive director of NEARI, parsed the difference in their approaches to cutting public sector pensions to WPRI in December of 2012 (watch the whole episode to see what the political landscape looked like just 11 short months ago!).

For me, and probably for many voters, policy differences aren’t the biggest factor in deciding for whom we pull the lever. It’s how you play the game.

Who Do We Pay?


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obligation opportunityWith the House of Representatives bringing in its “neutral” expert on defaulting on the 38 Studios moral obligation bonds, the lingering question to me still remains. Why is it alright to unilaterally bail out on our pension obligations to state employees, but our “moral” obligations to bondholders who knew the risks must be honored at all costs?

That was the question posed to Gov. Lincoln Chafee a month ago by columnist (writing then for Bloomberg View) Josh Barro.* Chafee’s never answered that fundamental question, and Barro rightly excoriated the Governor for claiming to call for moderation when in fact he called for a more radical version of pension reform than what was enacted.

Discovering the answer to the question (why can we ignore pensioners but not bondholders) is not where the conversation around the interview with Chafee went, of course; WPRI’s Ted Nesi discussed it before turning instead to the idea of moral obligation bonds as essentially general obligation bonds. And ultimately, Reuter’s Felix Salmon jumped in with a bit of commentary that completely lost Barro’s thread, instead laughably painting Chafee as Machiavellian in his approach to bonds.

But the question still remains; why are we valuing capital more than labor here? These pensioners did their duty for the State, whether it was operating its government, hunting down its criminals, taking care of its people, or any of the other thousands of little things state employees do. In exchange, beyond the wages it paid them, the State promised as well to ensure they could take care of themselves in their retirement. Then, when it was unwilling to pay for it, the State reneged on this promise; now it’s facing a lawsuit.

The bondholders, on the other hand, provided the capital used to pay for 38 Studios, a game company that spent poorly, was bad at managing its money, failed to produce a profit, and ultimately left the State with a massive financial hole. The State is promising to pay them their money back, with interest.

The pensioners provided actual value to the State, the bondholders did not. A question for 2014 for any elected official that suggests we should pay back the 38 Studios bonds but voted for pension reform is to explain how the bonds are more valuable than our state workers’ labor.

The simple political reality is that bondholders have simply always been more powerful and dominant in state economic policy than its workers; going back at least to the era immediately following the Revolutionary War (a sobering thought as we approach Gaspee Days). Even though paying back the bonds will pull money out of Rhode Island’s economy, the bondholders will suggest that they can cost the State even more money by damaging its credit ratings. Sadly, these credit ratings are put out by the same agencies that said that subprime mortgages were a top-tier investment… leading to the collapse in the economy five years ago.

Ultimately, because it’s far easier to tabulate the value of capital rather than services rendered over a worker’s career, our credit ratings aren’t hurt when we spurn our obligations to pensioners. There’s no doubt in my mind that we’re in the society that Ta-Nehisi Coates quotes Chris Hayes as suggesting we’re in, one “that applies the principle of accountability to the powerless and the principle of forgiveness to the powerful.

P.S. It’s also worth noting the words we use to describe the two situations; we’re “defaulting” on our bonds, but merely “reforming” our pensions. Maybe people against paying back the 38 Studios bonds should use the phrase “bond reform.”

And for more on this topic, see RI Future posts by Mike McDonald (Gina’s moral obligation Wall St not RI, April 7) and Bob Walsh (Pension lawsuit primer, June 26, ’12)

*CORRECTION: An earlier version of this post referred to the “conservative columnist Josh Barro”. Today, Barro declared he’s not a conservative, and is currently a “neoliberal”.

Nesi Takes On Tax Policy!


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Chart courtesy of WhoPays.org

To my way of thinking, there are few things that would be better medicine for the debate on how to fix Rhode Island’s economy than for WPRI’s uber-influential blogger Ted Nesi to delve into the state’s tax policy in the same way he did for the pension debate.

And lately, he has!

Note the the last three headlines on Nesi’s Notes (as well as a number of posts on tax equity last week and the week before):

While all of Nesi’s posts haven’t furthered the liberal legislative agenda, that really isn’t what progressives want from the mainstream media; we want to have an intellectually honest and respectful debate about the issues that affect the community – be they tax policy, civil rights or social justice.

Nesi has a tough beat  because he has to cover politics AND the economy – and these two forces of nature often collide in odd ways. But if he devotes a fraction of the pixels to tax policy that he gave to pension reform (or even just Raimondomania!), progressives, and everyone else, will get a great deal of very valuable information by which to measure the success and/or failure of our tax policies, which I think people of all political stripes can agree is of tantamount importance to the state.

The zeitgeist here in the Ocean State is that Keynsian economics doesn’t exist. That’s what happens when there are very few progressive pundits and a great many conservative pundits posing as economists. Even self-described moderate Ken Block traffics in this talking point.

A little bit of sunlight from the mainstream media will go a long way to dispelling some of these myths.

Arguing With The Tax Policy Switcheroo


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I was or will be on Channel 10’s News Conference Sunday show this week, depending on when you’re reading this.  John Simmons, of the Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council, was a guest with me.  An exchange we had reminds me of many I’ve had recently, including this comment from Dan DaPonte, the Senate Finance Committee chair.

It is an unmistakable fact of legislation that Rhode Island repeatedly cut the income tax in the years 1997-2009.  We cut the tax 10% between 1997 and 2002, we cut the capital gains rate in 2005, and we implemented the “flat” tax option in 2006.  All of these constituted cuts that were either exclusively for the richest of tax payers or predominantly for that top end.  The graph here, an old favorite of mine, shows the effect of the various cuts on the top 1%, and the median taxpayer, along with the unemployment rate during the period, just for fun.

In 2010, the legislature adopted a tax change (for tax year 2011) that froze the flat tax option in place and incorporated it into the tax code, preventing it from being easily repealed.  There were a large number of changes made that year, and the jury is still out on whether that was an advantage for rich people or not.  It was not designed to be, and possibly it was not, though only time will tell for sure.

However, the fact that the 2010 change may have been essentially neutral does not change the fact that the previous 13 years were characterized by repeated tax cuts for rich people.  The Almond cuts alone were worth about $100 million per year by 2002.  Nonetheless, when you complain about tax cuts for rich people, people like Simmons and DaPonte reply that the 2010 changes were not a tax cut for rich people and therefore “progressives are wrong.”  Then they go off into the weeds trying to demonstrate conclusively that the 2010 changes were not tax cuts for the rich.  If you watch the Sunday show, you’ll see John doing exactly that, and then getting miffed when I interrupt to say that the answer he’s giving is irrelevant to the complaint I’m making.

Here’s DaPonte:

I’m still quite honestly confused at the liberal opinion that the 2010 personal income tax reform was a big giveaway to high-income earners. From everyone that I’ve heard from, particularly tax professionals who do this stuff for a living – they have a completely opposing opinion, that that is not, in fact, what we did do.

But what did you do during the previous decade?

Whether you think that tax cuts for rich people constitute enlightened public policy or whether you think that they were a source a source of great inequity in the tax code and a source of real pain for our cities and towns (and the people who pay property taxes), it is tiring to hear people try to deny what actually happened in the last decade and a half or to obfuscate the issue, which is precisely what’s going on here.

The state of Rhode Island gave up a tremendous amount of revenue to these tax cuts.  The cuts produced a tremendous amount of fiscal pain in the cities and towns, and contribute to the fact that so few school systems have anything like a real music program left or new books on their library shelves.  Whether they added something to our economy is debatable (and I’m happy to debate it) but 100% irrelevant to the claim that they happened.

The 2010/11 tax changes are a part of this story only to the extent that they make restoring the status quo ante far more difficult.  Other than that, they have nothing at all to do with the larger offenses against tax equity committed over the last 15 years.  When you talk to people about tax equity, don’t let the subject change.