poll – RI Future

May 2, 2016May 2, 2016

Polls show climate change and cannabis are important to Rhode Island

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Lost in last week’s primary election were some other promising poll numbers for progressives. A Public Policy Polling survey found 3 of 4 Rhode Islanders would be more likely to support a candidate who would drastically decrease our dependence on fossil fuels and a Brown University Taubman Center poll found 55 percent of Rhode Islanders want to legalize recreational marijuana.

Climate change

The PPP poll of 1,179 likely Rhode Island primary voters found that 53 percent of Rhode Islanders were “much more likely” to “vote for a candidate who believes the United States must do all it can to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels by embracing measures like solar, wind, and renewable fuels, like biofuels,” and 22 percent “somewhat more likely” to support such a candidate. Only 26 percent of Rhode Islanders don’t want to support a climate champion for elected office with 11 percent “somewhat less likely” to support such a candidate, 7 percent were “much less likely” and 8 percent said it wouldn’t make a difference.

Even a majority of Rhode Island Republicans want to support a climate champion, the PPP poll found. A total of 63 percent of Republicans were more likely to support a candidate who would decrease dependence on fossil fuels, with 37 percent much more likely and 26 percent somewhat more likely. For Republicans, 27 percent were less likely to vote for a candidate who would invest in alternative energy and 10 percent of Democrats.

The PPP survey parsed its climate change question in terms of fossil fuels contributing to terrorism. It asked: “You may have heard about a connection between fossil fuels and terrorism. Even though the US doesn’t buy oil directly from regimes hostile to us and our allies, our demand for oil does drive up world prices, which benefits hostile regimes. Knowing this, would you be much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or much less likely to vote for a candidate who believes the United States must do all it can to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels by embracing measures like solar, wind, and renewable fuels, like biofuels?”

Cannabis

The Brown poll posed a more straight-forward question about marijuana. “Thinking beyond medical marijuana, do you support or oppose changing the law in Rhode Island to regulate and tax the use of marijuana, similarly to alcohol,” it asked.

Much of Rhode Island does, with 55 percent answering yes. 21 percent strongly support taxing and regulating cannabis and another 34 percent support it. Only 4 percent were neutral, 24 percent oppose the idea and 12 percent strongly oppose ending prohibition. 5 percent said they didn’t know or refused to answer.

Young Rhode Islanders overwhelmingly want marijuana to be legal, with 72 percent of people age 18 to 44 supporting the idea. Older Rhode Islanders were evenly split with 42.9 percent supporting legalization and 42.1 percent opposed. 56.3 percent of people age 45 to 64 support it and 37.7 percent are opposed.

The poll showed people were more likely to support regulating cannabis like alcohol the more education and income they had.

It also showed that white people were both more likely to support and oppose legalization than black people. 55 percent of white people polled said they support legalization and 36 percent were opposed compared with 50 percent of black respondents who support it and 30 percent who are opposed. Conversely black respondents were more than twice as likely as whites to either refuse to answer or remain neutral.

August 19, 2014August 20, 2014

Magaziner campaign: RI is ‘excited’ about Seth

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Seth Magaziner, Democrat for general treasurer, is the big winner as WPRI and the Providence Journal trickle out the results of its long-sought new polling data.

Magaziner leaped 20 points to 43 percent while his rival Frank Caprio went from 29 percent to 31 percent.

The ProJo called it a “a striking turn of events.” for Magaziner.

“The poll confirms that Rhode Islanders are excited about Seth Magaziner’s commitment to bring new energy and fresh ideas to the Treasurers office,” said Magaziner’s campaign manager Evan England, “and to make a clean break from the insider politics and mismanagement that have held Rhode Island back for too long.”

England added, “It’s time for a Treasurer who will use the office as a platform for economic growth and invest more in Rhode Island so we bring jobs back to Rhode Island.”

Since the first poll, Magaziner released a popular TV ad that warns against insider politics. Meanwhile Caprio’s younger brother resigned as chairman of the Democratic party amid a scandal about a public concession stand contract he won after a sitting legislator withdrew a winning bid.

You can watch my recent sit down interview with Magaziner here.

April 10, 2014April 11, 2014

How popular are RI pols? Taubman poll gives reference

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Mirror, mirror on the wall, who’s the most popular politician of them all? According to a new Taubman Center poll, it’s Senator Jack Reed followed by Providence Mayor Angel Taveras.

Reed and Taveras are the only two elected officials who more than 50 percent of respondents said were doing either an excellent or good job. On the other end of the spectrum, Congressman David Cicilline and Governor Linc Chafee were the least popular pols asked about. A whopping 73.5 percent of respondents said Chafee was doing an only fair or poor job and 58.2 percent said Cicilline was doing only fair or poor.

General Treasurer Gina Raimondo was more popular than she was unpopular with 49.3 percent of respondents saying she was doing an excellent or good job and 34.2 percent saying she was doing only fair or poor. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse and Congressman Jim Langevin were both more unpopular than they were popular.

Here’s how the congressional delegation stacked up against each other:

And here’s what it looks like to compare Angel Taveras, Gina Raimondo and Linc Chafee:

October 9, 2013October 9, 2013

Do cellphone-less polls have a conservative bias?

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A new Brown poll has the quarterback of pension politics football team leading Providence’s most oft-plagiarized mayor in a likely Democratic primary for governor in 2014 with 24 percent still undecided. But it’s at least worth noting that the Taubman Center has often been off mark with election forecasting.

“A new Brown University survey of Rhode Island voters finds Democratic State Treasurer Frank Caprio has widened his lead over Independent candidate Lincoln Chafee in the race for governor,” an October 2010 press release says.

The Taubman Center predicted Caprio would win by 7 and he lost by 13 – that’s a 20 point swing. Sure, Caprio then told off the president on hate radio, but Brown botched other races that year too: It said David Cicilline would win by a whopping 39 to 20 margin and he won 50 to 44. And Ralph Mollis only beat his Republican challenger by one point, not the 11 point swing Brown predicted. In 2006, a Brown poll thought Governor Don Carcieri would hold on to his office by 12 points. He won by less than two.

In 2012, Abel Collins own internal poll was almost as accurate as the Taubman Center in predicting his electoral results, only in the opposite direction.

It’s no secret that polls can get it wrong, and a huge reason for this is they don’t often account for those without landlines. What’s interesting is that, at least with 2012 presidential polls, the ones that got it wrong tended to anticipate a more conservative electorate.

Here’s hoping that’s the case with this Brown poll.

October 16, 2012

Collins’ Own Email Poll Shows Different Results

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Either independent congressional candidate Abel Collins is doing better than previous polls predicted, or how well he is doing is in the eye – or methodology – of the pollster asking the question.

The Collins campaign would have you believe the former.

It released an email-based poll conducted by CCRI political science professor Eric Siegel showing Collins garnering 16.1 percent support among respondents. That’s compared with 9.2 percent in a recent WPRI poll, and 4.7 percent in a more recent Brown poll.

The email poll showed incumbent Democrat Jim Langevin with 47.6 percent, compared to 52.6 in the WPRI poll and 49.4 percent in the Brown poll. Mike Riley, the Republican, got just 22.3 percent support in the Collins poll, compared with a similarly paltry 29.1 percent in the WPRI poll and 31.5 percent in the Brown poll.

Siegel, a former Green Party committee chair whose business Aqua Opinion and Policy Research was hired to conduct the poll though he is also serving as a volunteer with the Collins campaign, said email polls better reflect the electorate than do polls that utilize landlines, like the WPRO and Brown polls.

The logic goes that those who still utilize landlines tend to skew conservative – so even if the landline-using respondent is a registered Democrat, for example, he or she may tend to be a more conservative Democrat than, say, a registered Democrat who has ditched the landline for a cell phone or Skype. However, the same logic only politically reversed should also hold true … would those who would respond to an email poll tend to skew left? My guess is yes.

In other words, in either circumstance you might get the same amount of registered Democrats (or Republicans, for that matter) responding, but they might tend to be from different ends of the spectrum of registered Democrats or Republicans or unaffiliated voters.

There’s another difference in the Collins poll. Siegel weights his responses to match the demographics of the district, whereas the other two polls call the requisite number of households until they reach a demographic sample that matches the district.

September 20, 2012September 20, 2012

Cicilline Leads Doherty in Third Poll Since Primary

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A third poll since the primary shows Congressman David Cicillne with a comfortable lead over conservative newcomer Brendan Doherty, this one was commissioned by the Cicilline campaign and shows him enjoying a 51 to 41 edge over right wing Republican.

“Democrat David Cicilline has secured majority support over Republican challenger Brendan Doherty in the race for Rhode Island’s First Congressional seat,” said a memo from pollster Diane Feldman, of the Feldman Group, to the Cicilline campaign. “With only 8 percent undecided, the contest is not very mobile and Cicilline is the likely winner of it.”

Accounting for three-way race, “Cicilline leads Doherty 46 percent to 36 percent, with independent candidate David Vogel receiving 7 percent and 11 percent of voters undecided,” according to her memo.

The results closely mimic a recent poll conducted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which showed Cicilline with an 11-point lead over Doherty.

Feldman’s memo says, “Voters favor Democratic positions on many key issues facing the country, including health care reform. Seventy-two (72) percent of voters in the First Congressional District support the Democratic position favoring the Affordable Care Act, while 22 percent of voters favor the Republican position of repealing the Affordable Care Act completely, and starting the process of health care reform all over again.”

Doherty has said he is opposed to Obama’s landmark healthcare reform bill.

“The First Congressional District remains heavily Democratic,” Feldman wrote in her memo. “President Barack Obama dominates Republican challenger Mitt Romney and fully 50 percent of voters believe their families are better off if Democrats have a majority in the United States Congress, while only 16 percent of voters feel their families are be better off if Republicans have a majority.”

February 28, 2012February 28, 2012

Poll: Not looking good for Democrat David Cicilline

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The big story to come out of WPRI’s poll last night is that Republican challenger Brendan Doherty is “crushing” incumbent Democrat David Cicilline in their contest for the right to represent Rhode Island in the 1st Congressional District.

According to the poll that surveyed 250 Rhode Islanders, Doherty would garner 49 percent of the vote while Cicilline would pull in just 34 percent, with 16 percent undecided.*

This should serve as a call to action for both Democrats and progressives. If you can’t support Cicilline, it’s time to start recruiting David Segal to run again for the seat, as well. Or else find a dark horse.

More on what a three-way race might look like below…

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I held off on taking another look at David Cicilline in the primary until WPRI’s poll numbers were out (I distrust Brown polling). Well, here they are. True to form, WPRI shows a slightly different situation than Brown’s, even where all of Rhode Island was asked. Brown put Mr. Cicilline’s approval rating at 14.8%. The WPRI poll shows Mr. Cicilline at 19.6%, which is slightly better.

I think the WPRI poll is superior for those attempting to divine the future, if only because it actually puts head-to-head match-ups between Republican Brendan Doherty and Mr. Cicilline, along with potential Democratic challenger Anthony Gemma. While Mr. Gemma appears that he would handily lose in a race between him and Mr. Doherty (although not enough people know either, so there are a lot of not sures), Mr. Cicilline at least has a base of support to build from; the 18-39 year olds and members of the Democratic Party. Interestingly, union members are more pro-Doherty than pro-Cicilline (who’s better off with non-union voters), probably a sign that Cicilline’s last-minute deal with the Providence Fire Fighter’s IAFF Local 799 before his campaign hasn’t boosted his union credentials, nor has his service to the Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Last time I evaluated this, I said that a primary could shape up into essentially one of five choices: Mr. Gemma runs again and loses, Mr. Cicilline collapses, Mr. Cicilline defeats a centrist, either David Segal or Mr. Gemma triumphs in a three-way race against Mr. Cicilline, or a three-way race is a boon to Mr. Cicilline. The basic thought was that it’s more likely for Mr. Cicilline to win in a primary. Indeed, that still seems likely. For one thing, the Democratic Party has circled its wagons around Mr. Cicilline, and Mr. Gemma, an independent before 2010, is unlikely to excite Democratic partisans, and is unlikely to be able to get figures in the state Democratic Party to abandon Mr. Cicilline. Is there anyone capable of defeating the incumbent Representative in a Democratic Primary?

Scott MacKay appears to be wondering the same thing. Things haven’t improved for Mr. Cicilline since the last time WRNI did a poll in May of 2011. Having failed to address the issue last year, the campaign is likely to be a referendum on Mr. Cicilline, when it should be a referendum on the U.S. Congress. If Mr. Segal decides to run, or Mr. Gemma, both will have to be radically different candidates, and will face a name recognition problem much as Mr. Doherty has faced. They’ll also be facing the fact that their potential donor pools are the same as Mr. Cicilline’s, making it harder to raise money against him.

While Mr. Cicilline does have a sizable war chest, the question is if that money will matter in a general election. Where it will matter is in a primary election; but unfortunately for Mr. Gemma, his inclusion in the polling undercuts the notion that he might be more electable than Mr. Cicilline. One of the interesting things about small races like these is how polls can influence perceptions of electability, and candidates largely need to operate between infrequent polling to make their mark. A single poll can show the emperor has no clothes; and bad polls can cause serious damage. For the time being, Mr. Cicilline appears to have nothing to shield himself with. A non-Cicilline or Gemma candidate looking to jump in might start now while the pollsters are napping.

This might also be the void that either an independent or a Moderate could step into. Lincoln Chafee eked out a close win by appealing to progressives and the base of support he had built up during his tenure in the U.S. Senate. It’s not inconceivable that an independent could avoid the trouble of a Democratic primary while utilizing an aggressive media strategy to get their name in the news. This might also be the race that the Moderate Party could attempt to take on, but no candidates seem to be forthcoming, indeed, the Moderate Party has not even deigned to issue attacks on either candidate. There might be some advantages for an independent or Moderate candidate, since both national parties have damaged their brands severely over the last few years.

That’s ultimately the issue. We’re looking for a candidate who can be stronger than Mr. Cicilline and can overcome a large gap in name recognition relatively quickly. Providence Mayor Angel Taveras and State Treasurer Gina Raimondo leap to mind, but I think Mr. Taveras is dedicated to fixing Providence (such a run would open him up to the same criticisms as Mr. Cicilline) and that Ms. Raimondo has bigger offices she might be aiming for. Furthermore, neither seem likely to anger any of Mr. Cicilline’s Democratic backers, especially since Mr. Taveras is largely surrounded by them.

A dream candidate for Democrats would be someone capable of rallying Rhode Islanders with a hopeful message while being relatively unconnected to Providence’s financial woes. This would shift the referendum on Mr. Cicilline into the primary and would allow for a general election to focus on national issues, which should favor Democrats slightly as Tea Party Republicans have caused serious problems for their party’s favorability. The major issue here is that Mr. Doherty has yet to take any serious positions, meaning that he is largely the anti-Cicilline in the race. Republican voices were largely condemning Mr. Doherty as a Democrat in Republican clothing during the primary before John Loughlin dropped out. If Mr. Doherty is a Republican in the Chafee mode, he may be less objectionable to voters.

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*Update: Nicole Kayner of Mr. Cicilline’s campaign has given us the following statement about the poll:

“People are struggling right now and they are not satisfied with the response they are getting from Congress. David understands that. He is working hard every day to do what he can in this tough economy. Last year, his district office has helped over 700 Rhode Islanders solve problems like navigating the Veterans Administration and tracking down Social Security checks and Medicare payments. Most recently, he held a housing fair where hundreds of Rhode Island families who were either facing foreclosure or are having trouble making their payments were able to receive assistance from lenders and housing agencies. David remains focused on doing everything possible to help middle-class Rhode Islanders get back on their feet.”

February 13, 2012February 13, 2012

RI Voters’ Poll: Seeking Major Changes In Marijuana Policy

A new poll of 714 Rhode Island Voters indicates overwhelming support for medical marijuana, compassion centers, and decriminalization of less than one ounce of the plant. The medical marijuana law, gone unused by Rep. Bob Watson (if he were to qualify) garnered support of 72%, including a whopping 82% of Dems, 61% GOP, and 57% of those beloved Seniors that every politician craves. Only 30% of people over 65 were opposed. With that support, it should be no surprise that support for the Compassion Centers (approved by the legislature three years ago) was equally high- and the poll suggests that Chaffee stands to gain some support if he were to stop Pot-Blocking the Compassion Centers. Half the voters said they would view the Governor more favorably, while only 19% would view him less favorably.

A meager 24% are opposed to making small amounts of marijuana punishable by only a fine, and apparently would rather pay to imprison someone over a bag of the most common illegal intoxicant, being used by millions of Americans every day. In contrast, 65% of RI voters would like to see the highly anticipated change in the law, and 58% would be more likely to vote for a politician who supported such a reform (24% said “less likely,” with 18% not sure). Political gurus: you know the score. Few have ever seen a bill with this much sponsorship and public support that has not become law. It appears the onus is upon Speaker Gordon Fox to assure all the votes are held, as few individuals other than he could keep this bill from reaching the Governor’s desk. It remains to be seen how many courageous people take to the hearing, saying things heard last year such as: ‘I’m a wife, a mother, I have a job, pay a mortgage, and I smoke pot.’ H 7092, sponsored by Rep. Edwards, has a list of co-sponsors that makes you search for the opposition. Minority Leader Newberry? Sponsor. Favorite Villain Rep. Palumbo? Sponsor. The aroma smells the same in the Senate, with S 2253. Stay tuned.

The more interesting proposition is one which gained the support of millions of voters in California on the first try: Full Regulation of Marijuana. Such a bill has gone to a hearing for the past two years; admittedly, the legislation may need to be more detailed, or empower the proper regulatory agency to oversee a several hundred million dollar economic development project that America has never seen. I could not find such a bill filed yet in the Assembly, but I may have overlooked it. The poll of voters, by the way, shakes out 52-41% in support. If this were projected numbers in an election, the front page would call it a “landslide.” Interestingly, the women are much less enthusiastic about Regulation despite being more supportive than men on the Compassion Centers. There was no difference in support among party lines, with the Independent/Other having lower support than the two dominant factions. On this question, the Over 65 crowd was the most out of step with everyone else, as they oppose Regulation 55-36%. I’m not sure if these numbers would be identical in 10 years, and age reflects our changing opinions, or if the idea of marijuana criminalization will go Bye Bye like Ms. American Pie.

One question that was not asked, that would be of interest, is support for the Good Samaritan Act. This bill (successful elsewhere) is basically designed to encourage one drug user to save the life of another. Studies and experience in the medical field has shown that drug overdose, a serious killer in America even when the newspaper is not so explicit, can often be prevented by the most unlikely hero, another user. However, faced with the fear of prison (and possibly being linked in with their death) the other user will flee rather than call 911 or administer naxalone. Under this bill, nobody is going to be charged with drug possession if the evidence arises when its a medical response. Surely a certain percentage of RI voters would rather see people dead or in jail, but I suspect that a vast majority would encourage people in tough times to choose life.

Life, Compassion, and Decriminalization- that is what the people are leaning towards. Don’t let the fear-mongering media fool you.