Polls show climate change and cannabis are important to Rhode Island


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Lost in last week’s primary election were some other promising poll numbers for progressives. A Public Policy Polling survey found 3 of 4 Rhode Islanders would be more likely to support a candidate who would drastically decrease our dependence on fossil fuels and a Brown University Taubman Center poll found 55 percent of Rhode Islanders want to legalize recreational marijuana.

Climate change

pppollThe PPP poll of 1,179 likely Rhode Island primary voters found that 53 percent of Rhode Islanders were “much more likely” to “vote for a candidate who believes the United States must do all it can to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels by embracing measures like solar, wind, and renewable fuels, like biofuels,” and 22 percent “somewhat more likely” to support such a candidate. Only 26 percent of Rhode Islanders don’t want to support a climate champion for elected office with 11 percent “somewhat less likely” to support such a candidate, 7 percent were “much less likely” and 8 percent said it wouldn’t make a difference.

pppoll party2Even a majority of Rhode Island Republicans want to support a climate champion, the PPP poll found. A total of 63 percent of Republicans were more likely to support a candidate who would decrease dependence on fossil fuels, with 37 percent much more likely and 26 percent somewhat more likely. For Republicans, 27 percent were less likely to vote for a candidate who would invest in alternative energy and 10 percent of Democrats.

The PPP survey parsed its climate change question in terms of fossil fuels contributing to terrorism. It asked: “You may have heard about a connection between fossil fuels and terrorism. Even though the US doesn’t buy oil directly from regimes hostile to us and our allies, our demand for oil does drive up world prices, which benefits hostile regimes. Knowing this, would you be much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or much less likely to vote for a candidate who believes the United States must do all it can to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels by embracing measures like solar, wind, and renewable fuels, like biofuels?”

Cannabis

The Brown poll posed a more straight-forward question about marijuana. “Thinking beyond medical marijuana, do you support or oppose changing the law in Rhode Island to regulate and tax the use of marijuana, similarly to alcohol,” it asked.

Much of Rhode Island does, with 55 percent answering yes. 21 percent strongly support taxing and regulating cannabis and another 34 percent support it. Only 4 percent were neutral, 24 percent oppose the idea and 12 percent strongly oppose ending prohibition. 5 percent said they didn’t know or refused to answer.

Young Rhode Islanders overwhelmingly want marijuana to be legal, with 72 percent of people age 18 to 44 supporting the idea. Older Rhode Islanders were evenly split with 42.9 percent supporting legalization and 42.1 percent opposed. 56.3 percent of people age 45 to 64 support it and 37.7 percent are opposed.

The poll showed people were more likely to support regulating cannabis like alcohol the more education and income they had.

It also showed that white people were both more likely to support and oppose legalization than black people. 55 percent of white people polled said they support legalization and 36 percent were opposed compared with 50 percent of black respondents who support it and 30 percent who are opposed. Conversely black respondents were more than twice as likely as whites to either refuse to answer or remain neutral.

brown poll pot

Brown poll shows Hillary leading, PPP has Sanders ahead


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Polling show it’s a close race to win the Democratic presidential primary in Rhode Island.

A local poll from Brown University’s Taubman Center for Politics and Policy indicates a slight lead for Hillary Clinton, while the nationally-recognized Public Policy Polling version shows a slight lead for Bernie Sanders. The Taubman Center poll found likely primary voters prefer Clinton to Sanders 43 to 34 percent, with 16 percent undecided. The PPP poll asked only people who intend to vote in the Democratic primary and found Sanders had an advantage, 49 to 45 percent, with 6 percent undecided.

According to the Taubman Center: “Results of the poll are based on a telephone survey of a random sample of 600 registered, likely voters in Rhode Island. The sample included likely voters who identified as Democrat (320), Republican (99) and Unaffiliated (181). Likely voters were defined as anyone who voted in November 2014, September 2014, April 2012, or registered since November 2014. The poll had a overall margin of error of 4 percent. The sample reporting that they would vote in the Democratic primary was 436 with a margin of error of 4.6 percent.” The PPP poll asked 668 likely Democratic primary voters on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

The Taubman Center found Clinton’s best demographic advantage over Sanders comes from the Black vote (63% to 13%). Sanders does best among unaffiliated voters (42% to 22%).

taubman center clinton sanders

Read the Taubman Center’s full results here. Other important takeaways: 55 percent of Rhode Islanders want the state to tax and regulate marijuana. Gina Raimondo isn’t very popular, nor are truck tolls. But charter schools and tourism spending are.

taubman marijuana

How popular are RI pols? Taubman poll gives reference


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Mirror, mirror on the wall, who’s the most popular politician of them all? According to a new Taubman Center poll, it’s Senator Jack Reed followed by Providence Mayor Angel Taveras.

Reed and Taveras are the only two elected officials who more than 50 percent of respondents said were doing either an excellent or good job. On the other end of the spectrum, Congressman David Cicilline and Governor Linc Chafee were the least popular pols asked about. A whopping 73.5 percent of respondents said Chafee was doing an only fair or poor job and 58.2 percent said Cicilline was doing only fair or poor.

popular pols

General Treasurer Gina Raimondo was more popular than she was unpopular with 49.3 percent of respondents saying she was doing an excellent or good job and 34.2 percent saying she was doing only fair or poor. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse and Congressman Jim Langevin were both more unpopular than they were popular.

Here’s how the congressional delegation stacked up against each other:

delegation popularity

And here’s what it looks like to compare Angel Taveras, Gina Raimondo and Linc Chafee:

popular angel gina linc

Let the Taveras, Raimondo horse race begin!


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Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras supporting payday loan reform. (Bob Plain 5/18/12 Click on image for larger version)
Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras supporting payday loan reform. (Bob Plain 5/18/12 Click on image for larger version)

The Taubman Center’s recent poll is probably the ultimate kick-off of horse race coverage of the 2014 campaign for governor. In a somewhat regular occurrence for Director Marion Orr, the poll’s methodology was called out almost immediately. WPRI’s Ted Nesi has an interview with Orr explaining the methodology; here on RI Future our editor Bob Plain has a quick list comparing the actual results of elections versus Taubman’s predictions.

Polling is great for horse race coverage, and shoddy polling is politically dangerous. A year out, with the primary candidates for governor as yet undeclared, we don’t care much for talking about the issues the next governor will face; even though recent history suggests the decisions made in this next year will likely have great impacts on the next administration. Thus the polling provides a simple narrative for who has the “advantage” going into the actual race.

That narrative is something to be cautious about, especially in Rhode Island. What the media is saying is not necessarily what is happening. Sometimes, unfortunately, media outlets can fall too much in love with the narrative they’ve created. 2012 should remain a sobering moment; the narrative (based largely on polling) was that Rep. David Cicilline was in for one of the closest races of his political career. On the eve of the election, WPRI showed Cicilline with a 1-point lead over challenger Brendan Doherty. A month before, both the Taubman Center and WPRI had Cicilline with a 5- or 6-point lead. Cicilline went on to win by an unexpected 12.2% margin.

The Taubman Center’s polling also shows where the narrative is going. Included is a question comparing a 4-way race between Gina Raimondo, Angel Taveras, Allan Fung, and Ken Block. The operating theory is that Raimondo will choose to skip the Democratic primary, run as an independent and Chafee her way to victory. But here’s the thing; she’s already told NBC 10’s Jim Taricani that she won’t run for governor as an independent. Why does this narrative persist? Because people want it to.

In the meantime, there are strong questions to be asked. For instance, how does the next governor fix the state’s economy? Can they, considering the office’s major policy-making ability is as a leader in budget creation and through the bully pulpit? For the Democrats, we have to ask ourselves what the General Assembly does if the governor is no longer a useful foil to play off of? How do the candidates view the office they’re running for? There are social issues that are going to come up during the next term; will gubernatorial candidates protect the recent advances, or will they roll back progress? What are their educational policies?

David Preston has a great review of the usefulness of polling, and how to watching a political campaign without using numbers that are either unreliable or meant to manipulate.

Taubman Center Picks Biased Pension Panel


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First Brown University’s Taubman Center put out this push poll on pensions, then it stacked its panel discussion on the subject with some of the most conservative voices on pension politics available.

On Thursday afternoon the Center will host a discussion called Pensions in Peril: How Municipalities Are Defusing This Fiscal Time Bomb. Slated to speak are Eileen Norcross, Joshua Rauh and Robert Clark; all are very well-known for taking a very hard line on the dangers posed by public sector pension plans.

One local pension expert said the Center could have fostered a more balanced conversation had it invited the likes of Dean Baker, of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, or Diane Oakley, of the National Institute on Retirement Security, instead of just the three pension skeptics.

Norcross works for the Mercatus Center, a right-wing think tank at George Mason University financed by the Koch Brothers and big oil, among others.

Here’s what she had to say to Fox News about Central Falls’ pension problems:

The second panel discussion has a more balanced panel, including mayors Scott Avedesian of Warwick and Don Grebien of Pawtucket. Other panelists are: Gayle Corrigan, Chief of Staff, City of Central Falls; Dennis Hoyle, Auditor General of Rhode Island; and Susanne Greschner, Chief, Municipal Finance Department, State of Rhode Island.