The big story to come out of WPRI’s poll last night is that Republican challenger Brendan Doherty is “crushing” incumbent Democrat David Cicilline in their contest for the right to represent Rhode Island in the 1st Congressional District.
According to the poll that surveyed 250 Rhode Islanders, Doherty would garner 49 percent of the vote while Cicilline would pull in just 34 percent, with 16 percent undecided.*
This should serve as a call to action for both Democrats and progressives. If you can’t support Cicilline, it’s time to start recruiting David Segal to run again for the seat, as well. Or else find a dark horse.
More on what a three-way race might look like below…
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I held off on taking another look at David Cicilline in the primary until WPRI’s poll numbers were out (I distrust Brown polling). Well, here they are. True to form, WPRI shows a slightly different situation than Brown’s, even where all of Rhode Island was asked. Brown put Mr. Cicilline’s approval rating at 14.8%. The WPRI poll shows Mr. Cicilline at 19.6%, which is slightly better.
I think the WPRI poll is superior for those attempting to divine the future, if only because it actually puts head-to-head match-ups between Republican Brendan Doherty and Mr. Cicilline, along with potential Democratic challenger Anthony Gemma. While Mr. Gemma appears that he would handily lose in a race between him and Mr. Doherty (although not enough people know either, so there are a lot of not sures), Mr. Cicilline at least has a base of support to build from; the 18-39 year olds and members of the Democratic Party. Interestingly, union members are more pro-Doherty than pro-Cicilline (who’s better off with non-union voters), probably a sign that Cicilline’s last-minute deal with the Providence Fire Fighter’s IAFF Local 799 before his campaign hasn’t boosted his union credentials, nor has his service to the Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Last time I evaluated this, I said that a primary could shape up into essentially one of five choices: Mr. Gemma runs again and loses, Mr. Cicilline collapses, Mr. Cicilline defeats a centrist, either David Segal or Mr. Gemma triumphs in a three-way race against Mr. Cicilline, or a three-way race is a boon to Mr. Cicilline. The basic thought was that it’s more likely for Mr. Cicilline to win in a primary. Indeed, that still seems likely. For one thing, the Democratic Party has circled its wagons around Mr. Cicilline, and Mr. Gemma, an independent before 2010, is unlikely to excite Democratic partisans, and is unlikely to be able to get figures in the state Democratic Party to abandon Mr. Cicilline. Is there anyone capable of defeating the incumbent Representative in a Democratic Primary?
Scott MacKay appears to be wondering the same thing. Things haven’t improved for Mr. Cicilline since the last time WRNI did a poll in May of 2011. Having failed to address the issue last year, the campaign is likely to be a referendum on Mr. Cicilline, when it should be a referendum on the U.S. Congress. If Mr. Segal decides to run, or Mr. Gemma, both will have to be radically different candidates, and will face a name recognition problem much as Mr. Doherty has faced. They’ll also be facing the fact that their potential donor pools are the same as Mr. Cicilline’s, making it harder to raise money against him.
While Mr. Cicilline does have a sizable war chest, the question is if that money will matter in a general election. Where it will matter is in a primary election; but unfortunately for Mr. Gemma, his inclusion in the polling undercuts the notion that he might be more electable than Mr. Cicilline. One of the interesting things about small races like these is how polls can influence perceptions of electability, and candidates largely need to operate between infrequent polling to make their mark. A single poll can show the emperor has no clothes; and bad polls can cause serious damage. For the time being, Mr. Cicilline appears to have nothing to shield himself with. A non-Cicilline or Gemma candidate looking to jump in might start now while the pollsters are napping.
This might also be the void that either an independent or a Moderate could step into. Lincoln Chafee eked out a close win by appealing to progressives and the base of support he had built up during his tenure in the U.S. Senate. It’s not inconceivable that an independent could avoid the trouble of a Democratic primary while utilizing an aggressive media strategy to get their name in the news. This might also be the race that the Moderate Party could attempt to take on, but no candidates seem to be forthcoming, indeed, the Moderate Party has not even deigned to issue attacks on either candidate. There might be some advantages for an independent or Moderate candidate, since both national parties have damaged their brands severely over the last few years.
That’s ultimately the issue. We’re looking for a candidate who can be stronger than Mr. Cicilline and can overcome a large gap in name recognition relatively quickly. Providence Mayor Angel Taveras and State Treasurer Gina Raimondo leap to mind, but I think Mr. Taveras is dedicated to fixing Providence (such a run would open him up to the same criticisms as Mr. Cicilline) and that Ms. Raimondo has bigger offices she might be aiming for. Furthermore, neither seem likely to anger any of Mr. Cicilline’s Democratic backers, especially since Mr. Taveras is largely surrounded by them.
A dream candidate for Democrats would be someone capable of rallying Rhode Islanders with a hopeful message while being relatively unconnected to Providence’s financial woes. This would shift the referendum on Mr. Cicilline into the primary and would allow for a general election to focus on national issues, which should favor Democrats slightly as Tea Party Republicans have caused serious problems for their party’s favorability. The major issue here is that Mr. Doherty has yet to take any serious positions, meaning that he is largely the anti-Cicilline in the race. Republican voices were largely condemning Mr. Doherty as a Democrat in Republican clothing during the primary before John Loughlin dropped out. If Mr. Doherty is a Republican in the Chafee mode, he may be less objectionable to voters.
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*Update: Nicole Kayner of Mr. Cicilline’s campaign has given us the following statement about the poll:
“People are struggling right now and they are not satisfied with the response they are getting from Congress. David understands that. He is working hard every day to do what he can in this tough economy. Last year, his district office has helped over 700 Rhode Islanders solve problems like navigating the Veterans Administration and tracking down Social Security checks and Medicare payments. Most recently, he held a housing fair where hundreds of Rhode Island families who were either facing foreclosure or are having trouble making their payments were able to receive assistance from lenders and housing agencies. David remains focused on doing everything possible to help middle-class Rhode Islanders get back on their feet.”
Segal? I think he needs to do a few things first: 1. Establish residency ( crashing on a friends sofa doesn’t count),
2. Poll again to see if his numbers moved up from last time (jan 2012).
Gemma? I don’t think he could win for rep committee in Lincoln.
Facts: Cicilline represents the people, while Dorhety represents the selected few.
Do we really want to keep the republicans in control of the house?
Do you refer to the Anthony Gemma who won Lincoln in 2010?
Do you refer to the poll I saw that has Segal within 10 points even though his name recognition is just more than half of Cicilline’s?
Cicilline has dug his grave and every Rhode Islander knows it, except for those who are part of his cabal. There has never been such a chasm between the ambitions of the insiders and the wants of ordinary Rhode Islanders. There very well may be stronger options than Gemma, Segal, and Doherty and perhaps they will emerge in weeks to come, but they are far from required to seal Cicilline’s fate.
Lincoln, Smithfield, Cumberland, and North Providence. But pluralities all, and nothing above 36.2%. I’d also like to see that poll about Segal. Got a link?
However, I don’t think it’s inevitable that Cicilline loses in the primary. I think reliable Democratic voters will support Cicilline against Gemma, who can be portrayed as an opportunist. Cicilline stands to gain if, as Brian Hull says is happening below, Segal doesn’t run. Segal voters aren’t likely to support Gemma over Cicilline. Furthermore, in some ways, it might be beneficial for Cicilline to face a primary from a lone opponent, as it prepares him for the sort of attacks he’ll face from Doherty. However, that has its own risks, such as the discovery of an effective line of attack and the drain on financial resources.
“Facts: Cicilline represents the people, while Dorhety represents the selected few.”
More like a farce. Cicilline only cares about Cicilline. The whole party is a little late to this epiphany but apparently there are still some hangers on. You’ve placed the Democrats between a rock and a hard place with your loyalty to this selfish political punk.
First, Segal’s already represented the people of Providence for eight years, first as a city councilor and then as a state rep. So that’s done. You’re right that he’ll face a significant disadvantage in the polls. Of course, a polling firm closely associated with him has been active, so he’ll likely have his own internal numbers to work off of.
Second, Gemma came in second in the last primary. He could plausibly expand on that if he manages to make a convincing case of electability over Cicilline. However, I don’t think the WPRI polls really show that.
Third, at present, the people don’t feel Cicilline represents them, unless the people are Democrats and/or 18-39 years old. Even the traditional Democratic constituency of union members are pro-Doherty, and they were never close to Cicilline to begin with.
We don’t want Republicans in control of the House, but unless we can pull up someone with a reasonable chance of defeating Doherty, that appears to be a likely situation. At the very least, an RI Republican will return to Washington if the current trends hold.
Some thoughts…
I think the polling data which shows Doherty beating Cicilline is more reflective of people’s frustration with Providence’s financial situation and the knowledge of Cicilline as a candidate and Congressman. And it could also have something to do with the uproar that occurred during the redistricting “fiasco.”
Voters’ movement toward Doherty in the polling is also more a matter of not knowing Doherty than actually liking him as a candidate. Remember all those polls last year that showed Obama “losing” to a mythical ill-defined Republican candidate? Same thing with this data.
I think once the actual campaign shapes up, and Doherty has to answer policy questions, the polling that happens then may have some legitimacy. Right now, it’s just people expressing their negative feelings toward someone they know and may not like. Once people know both candidates (and probably won’t like either), I think Cicilline will rise in the polling.
Lastly, Segal isn’t going to run – Cicilline will be the Democratic candidate. And I still think it’s Cicilline’s race to lose in the general.
www.rifuture.org//rethinking-the-cicilline-and-doherty-race.html
I’m with you up to a point, Brian. Doherty essentially avoided any kind of first impression with voters by having Loughlin step aside. It means he’s untested, he’s won one round by forfeit, and round two will be the real deal, and he’ll be going up against Cicilline who has faced a number of elections, and is much more polished in this regard. I find it doubtful that Gemma won’t run, but as I’ve previously pointed out, without Segal, Cicilline seems likely to win (although if Providence goes bankrupt or into receivership at any point, Cicilline will be in dire straits).
The math is still Cicilline’s when we’re looking at the city of Providence, and its dominant place in a CD1 Primary. But once it goes to a general election, independents and Republicans start to become far more important, and Doherty is currently picking up a sizable portion of Democrats and 18-39 year olds, with about a third of each… well, in this case I think it become far more problematic. Doherty is winning independents handily, and most Rhode Islanders are independents. Beyond which, within the last year, the polls haven’t appreciably changed.
Ultimately, Cicilline’s fate is tied to Providence’s. If Taveras can save the city, Cicilline will benefit. If he can’t Cicilline will become even more vulnerable. As I’ve said, if this race becomes a referendum on Cicilline, he loses. He either has to change the discussion in the face of a news media focused on Providence’s financial issues, or else someone else has to step up.
Where is Ed Pacheco? Any responsible party chair who sees poll numbers like this would be urging Cicilline to reconsider.
Cicilline cannot win; we can either get a new nominee and keep the seat or Ed Pacheco can sit by idly while we hand the seat to Doherty.
Sometimes a scenario is so simple it doesn’t need fancy political parlance. Voters don’t trust Cicilline. He cannot regain public trust in 8 months.
It is time for Ed Pacheco to look at his ring, man up, and do the right thing for the party.
So, put yourself in Pacheco’s shoes. You have to find a candidate who’s a Democrat, popular across the district (or at least in the metropolitan areas), a good enough fundraiser to start from scratch and looking to move up from their old job as well as piss off a faction of your own party. You yourself (as Chair) may piss off that faction. That faction is well-financed. It has a well-financed candidate. The election is eight months away. Eight months is a lifetime in politics, though I frankly think you’re right that it’s extremely difficult for Cicilline to regain the public trust (though I disagree that it’s impossible).
So, who would you pick to step up?
Now complicate that; the candidate also has to be able to defeat a candidate popular enough among Democrats and who can raise enough money to take on Cicilline and Doherty, who are both well-financed.
Ed Pacheco’s lack of leadership is going to cost our party dearly. The problem with Pacheco’s cowardice in asking Cicilline to step aside isn’t limited to CD-1; there are considerations downticket that are going to limit our gains in the State House.
Let’s be frank about this: David Cicilline is going to turn out the vote alright: FOR DOHERTY. Those same voters are likely also going to vote against Democrats in other offices from Senate to School Committee.
I don’t think Ed Pacheco has to “find” another candidate. When Kennedy announced he wouldn’t seek reelection, there were more than enough names tossed around. Ed doesn’t have to pick; Let the voters pick the nominee. All Pacheco has to do is get Cicilline to withdraw.
Quite frankly, just a few remarks from Ed Pacheco expressing doubt would be enough to get the ball rolling.
But Ed Pacheco won’t do that, because he is too afraid.
That is not good for our party. We need a fighter.
As for pissing off a faction….if Ed isn’t willing to lead this party, he shouldn’t have taken the job.
Let’s not forget that we have finite electoral resources in Rhode Island (in terms of money and energy). Are we going to pump a ton of energy and money into Cicilline’s losing campaign when we could reinvest that money into building real party power at the General Assembly and in a winning CD-1 candidate?
Who wants to go phone-banking for Cicilline and door-knocking to a community that Cicilline led into a financial crisis and then back-pedaled to deny responsibility? Who hear wants to think that our next Rhode Island Congressman does the bidding of Speaker John Boehner?
Let’s see a show of hands.
That’s what is at stake here.
I want Nancy Pelosi back as Speaker, and that is a lot more important than preserving the career of David Cicilline.
I do agree with you though: the reason that Ed Pacheco won’t ask Cicilline to leave is because he’s afraid of pissing off a well financed faction that might not fund his own future ambitions. That is a shame.
Brendan Doherty is “crushing” incumbent Democrat David Cicilline in their contest
doherty is not crushing ciccilini is self destructing…..doherty hasnt even run a campaign ad and has had few press releases.
and if i were doherty, i would probably sit back and let ciccilini continue to liee and self destruct.
Wait until Doherty has to open his mouth and start taking positions on actual policy and not just post quotes on Facebook and Twitter. David Cicilline is not going to hold back during debates and Doherty’s going to look like a deer in headlights
Doherty — just another neocon