A recent meeting of RIFuture contributors (Bob Plain last on right).
There’s an oft repeated falsehood told in Rhode Island that is repeated enough that those parroting it no longer feel the need to justify the logic of it. This factoid goes something like this, people are leaving the Rhode Island, which proves something is dreadfully wrong (and certainly the fault of Democrats, progressives, unions, fisher cats, whatever).
The latest iteration of this comes from the Arthur Christopher Schaper, “guest mindsetter” at GoLocal, who notes with grave concern that “more people are leaving the state than entering.”
The problem, according the Schaper, is that the Democratic Party like a coven of witches “casting hexes on the unsuspecting citizens” has “cursed the minds and the hearts of the Rhode Island citizenry, convincing them that Republicans have no power, no solutions, and no ideas beyond running against the Democratic machine.”
Yes, that’s right. It’s not Republicans lack of viable ideas. It’s only the appearance of that! Clearly someone has fooled you gullible voters. Lucky for you, smart folks like Mr. Schaper are still around to tell you about it. It’s funny, but it’s also what passes for serious political analysis on Rhode Island’s right.
But what of the idea that we should be concerned that “more people are leaving the state than entering?” This one is a bit more pernicious than the rest of the nonsense in Schaper’s anti-progressive rant because it seems a logical premise: People gravitate towards “good” places and away from “bad” ones. But just how important an indicator is population growth for prosperity? Turns out, there’s no connection between the two. Richard Florida of the Martin Prosperity Institute looked for just such an association. What he found was that:
Economists of all stripes agree that rising productivity – fueled by more efficient business practices, more highly skilled and flexible workers, new technology and higher rates of innovation – is the main driver of economic growth.
Productivity and prosperity always go together; prosperity and population not so much… there was no statistical association whatsoever between population growth and productivity growth.
This not only challenges, it definitively disproves, the conventional wisdom that a growing population equals a growing economy. Population growth, in fact, can create a false illusion of prosperity.
Florida explains, that while migration patterns may have mattered in the agricultural and industrial past, what’s import now are those things that matter in the new economy “like education, skills, innovation and creativity.” Unfortunately ideas to promote an environment supportive of those things that matter are among the very things Schaper dismisses out of hand as a focus on “inane and non-pressing matters,” for instance legislation promoting the progressives values of tolerance and equality, which have been positively linked to higher levels of economic growth. That’s not progressive voodoo. It’s simple economic fact.
Competitive Cities Care About Equality
Members of the creative class – the 40 million workers, a third of the American workforce – the scientists and engineers, innovator and entrepreneurs, researchers and academics, architects and designers, artists, entertainers and media types and professionals in business, management, healthcare and law who power economic growth – place a huge premium on diversity. In fact, they use it as a proxy to determine whether a city will provide a welcoming and stimulating environment for them.Cities that demonstrate such attributes gain a competitive edge, as evidenced by their consistently higher levels of economic growth. As the journalist and demographer Bill Bishop put it, “Where gay households abound, geeks follow.”
I’m hopeful that analysis by economists like Florida will help to convince RI Republicans to abandon their flawed metrics of the past and to begin seriously considering ideas that will make Rhode Island competitive in the future. Hopeful, yes, but in the case of progressive witch hunters like Mr. Schaper, it may take some time.
“I’m hopeful that analysis by economists like Florida will help to convince RI Republicans to abandon their flawed metrics of the past and to begin seriously considering ideas that will make Rhode Island competitive in the future.”
This was your attempt at humor right? Seeing as how Democrats have controlled this state for decades, how would Republicans abandoning any metrics have any effect on Rhode Island’s economy or it’s competitiveness. I’m not sure why you even use the word competitiveness. According to many on RIF, there’s no need to be in competition with other states in our region except when it comes to same sex marriage. Of course that may change when Massachusetts drops their sales tax to 4.5 percent. As for the actual decline, isn’t the problem exacerbated by the median income migrating out at about $22K when only $11K is migrating in?
The study you’re referencing explains the reason for that… students (funny, the post on AR left that part out)…
– Moving to Rhode Island from another state: 26,769 people, $11,317 median income. (Many moving in are college freshmen, a low-income group.)
– Rhode Islanders moving to another state: 31,065 people, $22,794.
Notably those numbers do not support the “flight of earls” myth. Most people leaving the state are in fact low income, below or near the poverty line.
Russ,
Everyone knows the ‘Flight of the Earls’ was debunked long ago yet you throw it up when we’re talking about a median income of $22K exiting the state. You also keep tossing out this theory that college students account for the low income migration in without any supporting documentation. My kids never claimed their colleges as their residence when they filed their income tax. The bottom line is the exodus is larger than the influx and at a higher income too.
Providence Journal:
“Although population estimates released Thursday do not track income, the bureau’s American Community Survey does.”
I know you can’t believe everything you read in the Projo, but I haven’t seen it debunked yet. All that said, it’s the economy. The exodus is just another symptom and people like you Russ who want to put it on Republican policy are being intellectually dishonest.
“You also keep tossing out this theory that college students account for the low income migration in without any supporting documentation.”
That’s what was reported. I’m just quoting what appeared in the news item.
“Census numbers show income is leaving Rhode Island faster than people are.”
But it’s not an illogical conclusion, for instance the median age for those who “Moved from different state” is 18 – 24.
I’ll give you your source Russ seeing as how I used it too but I’m not buying it. I would think that college student migration would be a wash.
“isn’t the problem exacerbated by the median income migrating out at about $22K when only $11K is migrating in?”
There is no data available about the movement of income. There is IRS data available about the movement of people, which is widely misinterpreted to be about the movement of income. People who want to use this data should acquaint themselves with the details before misinforming others: http://www.irs.gov/uac/SOI-Tax-Stats—Migration-Data-Users-Guide
Sorry but your link is dead. That information came from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and not the IRS.
Sorry, blog software reformatted the hyphens. Here’s the right link, immune from formatting software that thinks it knows better: http://1.usa.gov/14vp1p6
Like the IRS data, the ACS data is also about the movement of people not the movement of money. Interpreting it the way you seem to want people to do is incorrect. There are not many people who take their income with them when they move, though there are some.
Again, there is no data to support your claim about the movement of money. If someone leaves a poor job here and gets a better job in Georgia, that is a shame and something that public policy should address, but it is not money lost to Rhode Island.
btw, you can embed the links. The dialog box just needs to be resized to make the “Insert” button visible…
“SOI Tax Stats – Migration Data Users Guide”
DogDiesel wrote:
“Russ, Everyone knows the ‘Flight of the Earls’ was debunked long ago”
Why, thank you very much ,Dog.
So that makes it all hunky dory right Pat. RI is last in business friendliness, second highest (if not 1st) in unemployment, and the worst place to retire. The best response you and Russ can muster is, “but the ‘Flight of the Earls’ is fantasy.” Your only answer for the state’s problem is raising taxes and same sex marriage.
Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted. btw, Providence has been ranked among the best places to retire by that leftist rag, Money Magazine.
Forbes: Rhode Island in the top five worst places to retire.
MSN Money: Rhode Island 3rd worst place to retire.
AARP/Money Rate: Rhode Island 10th worst state to retire
Kiplinger: Rhode Island 3rd worst taxing state for retirees
Wall Street Journal: Rhode Island 4th worst place to retire
Need more?
Clearly not written by people who fish.
My point is just that these lists might sell magazines but they don’t necessary mean much. Although if your point is that we are too reliant on property taxes (a faotor in many of those type lists), then I completely agree.
Pat,
Are you letting the Dog out?
And, if you aren’t…
Who let the Dog out?
(Woof, woof?)