Over the past few months, something momentous has happened to Rhode Island’s economy. For the first time in nearly a decade, Rhode Island is outperforming our neighbors on jobs. The whole Northeast is in the midst of a regional recession. From Maine to Pennsylvania, the unemployment rate is rising sharply. The one exception? Rhode Island. Our unemployment rate continues to fall. This might be temporary. We may yet follow our neighbors into the double dip, but for now it appears that we are holding strong. Given that our jobs picture remains the worst in the region, this news is sorely needed.
Unemployment rates in the Northeast since 2000. Note the sudden upsurge this year in the unemployment rate of every state except Rhode Island. Bureau of Labor Statistics data plotted via Google Public Data.
The reasons for this sudden recession in the Northeast are not a settled question, but the main culprit seems to be large European-style austerity measures. These measures center around the large cuts in public employment Carcieri was so fond of. Carcieri, however, is no longer governor, and it seems that our state’s long decline (which began, incidentally, when he took office) may finally be over. Lincoln Chafee, while hamstrung by a conservative, anti-growth General Assembly, at least is not actively working to wreck Rhode Island. That is a big step in the right direction, and personally, I am ready to break out the champagne.
I may be the only one. The media have gotten so used to reporting on our steady slide behind our peers that they apparently no longer bother to check the unemployment numbers. On Tuesday, GoLocalProv reported that “economic expansion in the state remains below the level to significantly impact the state’s jobs picture, (sic) and remains below national and regional growth.” Normally, that would be a pretty good guess, but right now we are actually outperforming our neighboring states.
Great news!
Is it coincidental that we outperformed our neighbors at the same time that RI implemented income tax reform??
Just sayin’….I kept hearing Progressives slam the income tax reform because it did not appear to be working…maybe it is in fact working based on this piece! Tax policy usually does not yield immediate results – they take a little time to kick in.
“right now we are actually outperforming our neighboring states”
Wait… Our RATE is still higher than our peers. That means we’re not ‘outperforming’ at all. We’re ‘outperforming’ in the way that a burning home will eventually put itself out.
Unemployment numbers are tricky, because they only tell a very small part of the story: Who’s looking for a job today.
The real story is “what proportion of people have jobs” relative to our neighbors. If that data is brought in, you can clearly see that RI has consistently shrunk its labor force through the recession, and now the shrinking labor force is eating into the unemployment numbers. The other states did NOT shrink their labor force (or not as much), and therefore, they are going to be more volatile.
oceanstatecurrent.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/RI-MA-CT-laborunemployment-perc-jan07-jul12.jpg
Possibly one could make the case that the 2010 tax cut, which was relatively progressive, helped create jobs. The tax cut was largely targeted towards the middle class and included the removal of the capital gains loophole. Personally, I’m skeptical because this tax cut was largely offset by property tax hikes, which typically do more damage to the economy than income taxes.
It’s a much tougher case to argue that the 2006 tax cut, which was much bigger and much more regressive, helped lower unemployment. It was in early 2007 that the Rhode Island unemployment rate really decoupled from the rest of the region’s unemployment rate. That’s a pretty suspicious coincidence.
Hey, that’s great news.
I’ll run right out to Central Falls, Pawtucket, East Providence, and West Warwick and tell them that, although thet probably don’t know it, they’re statistically better off.
Who knew?
See what bold leadership can do?
Oh, wait a second: Half of those municipalities don’t even have their own leadership.
See what internal colonization can do!!
I guess I’m missing something here. We’re celebrating the fact that we’re still behind all these other states in unemployment rate — only by less than we were before?
“I’m driftin’ back.”
“I’m driftin’ back.”
Thanks, Neil.
Aircraft separation has been achieved.
Thanks for the refueling.
What a fascinating work of art.
What a temporarily enduring
surge of heart.
“I’m driftin’ back.”