Governor – Page 2

April 2, 2013April 2, 2013

2014 Election: More Important Than You Think

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state house november — The State House in November.

When the next gubernatorial inauguration takes place in January 2015, for preceding 30 years, a single Democratic governor will have reigned in Rhode Island for just 4 years and 2 days (barring any unforeseen circumstances leading to a Governor Elizabeth Roberts). Republicans will have ruled for 22 of those years. This is odd for a state that Gallup found to be “the most Democratic state” (tied with Hawaii).

There have been a number of things that could possibly have contributed to this. One is Rhode Island maintains a system of electing its Governor in the midterm election for U.S. President. The lower turnout means slightly fewer voters, and since the larger the turnout, the more the Democratic Party is favored, this pattern assists in electing more non-Democrats. The Party has also been hampered by lackluster gubernatorial candidates, culminating in Frank Caprio’s “shove it” comment in 2010. Finally, The New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blog suggested that Rhode Island is “the most most elastic state”, meaning it has a large percentage of swing voters.

That FiveThirtyEight post has RIPR’s Scott MacKay positing that voters select Republicans to check the power of the Democrats in the General Assembly. It also quotes URI professor Maureen Moakley suggesting that we may see more independent candidates in the future instead of Republicans, due to the tarnishing of their brand both locally and nationally.

I’m neither a distinguished political observer nor a professor of political science, and it has been a few months since those observations were made, but I’m not in agreement with this (note: I’m not mocking either MacKay or Moakley, just warning you to read my thoughts skeptically). Considering that the Democrats have long held a veto-proof majority in the General Assembly, non-Democratic governors have been an ineffective check. And I do not think Rhode Islanders will be liable to select more independent governors after Lincoln Chafee’s administration ends.

My feeling is that the Democratic Party now has two strong candidates in the wings in Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras. At any point over the next year, either could join Ernie Almonte in the running. They’d instantly be the favorite. If both run, it becomes harder to parse, with Raimondo having the slight edge over Taveras at this moment in terms of polling and campaign cash reserves. In response to the threat of either of the state’s most popular politicians running as the Democratic nominee, the Republican Party is suggesting Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian, or former U.S. Congressional District 1 candidate Brendan Doherty.

There’s a plausible path for a Republican candidate in a four-way race, assuming Chafee remains an independent (there’s been discussion of Chafee becoming a Democrat, but I don’t particularly think it’s likely, nor likely to help Chafee electorally) and assuming that the Moderate Party fields a candidate (which will probably be Ken Block).

If Rhode Island manages to vote in a Democratic governor, it may cause more changes than you’d think. The governor has been a relatively weak position for a long time. But it’s been a useful screen for unpopular policies, partly because our governors have been so good at being proponents of unpopular policies. Thus we can talk about the “Carcieri tax cuts” but ignore the very real criticism that they were passed by an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature. Government power is rooted in the General Assembly. That it’s so diffuse and obscured is a notable feature of Rhode Island’s democracy; even within the General Assembly, the obvious power players aren’t always the ones calling the shots.

That might very well change with a Democrat in the governor’s chair. It seems unlikely that either a Governor Raimondo or Taveras will be content to take a back seat to the whims of the General Assembly. If the governor exerts more executive authority, what may take shape in Rhode Island may be more similar to the early days of the American Republic; with a pro-administration faction backing the governor and an anti-administration faction backing legislative power. These forces might very well meet in a constitutional convention (a possibility which shouldn’t be discounted) leading to a major fight over how the government should be structured (though it will likely be manifested in many small changes rather than large sweeping ones).

If the Democratic Party can come through this and figure out an accommodation for a Democratic governor, Democrats might finally secure presumptive control over the governor’s office. This will be boosted if economic conditions improve in Rhode Island during a Democratic administration. But if that happens, there may no longer be cover for the General Assembly.

December 14, 2012December 14, 2012

Blame Gina Raimondo? Not So Fast, Progressives

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Regular readers of the blog know that Treasurer Raimondo has become a lightening-rod for criticism of the state’s recent changes to the public employee pension system.

As a tactic, I’ll admit it’s a good one, simultaneously riling up the base and drawing media attention to the union and retiree’s position. It’s also the first salvo in what’s bound to be a contentious Democratic primary for the Governor’s office. But is the General Treasurer actually at fault? Consider the duties of the office.

Duties
The General Treasurer receives and disburses all state funds, issues general obligation notes and bonds, manages the investment of state funds and oversees the retirement system for state employees, teachers and some municipal employees. She is also responsible for the management of the Unclaimed Property Division, the Crime Victim Compensation Program and the state-sponsored CollegeBoundfund.

Noticeably absent is any mention of negotiating union contracts. That’s simply not her job. What critics would have you believe is that Treasurer Raimondo should have essentially “gone rogue” and usurped the Governor’s duties and possibly those of the General Assembly. L’état, c’est Gina? I’m not convinced. This blog has even gone so far as to suggest that the General Treasurer should be more concerned with “main street” than with the state’s investments and bond rating.

I’ve been a fairly consistent Raimondo supporter, but I was also present at last year’s State House protest adding my voice to the position that the plan asked too much of the neediest pension recipients. In fact I agree, as Rhode Island Federation of Teachers and Healthcare Professionals president Frank Flynn put it, that it’s “not a simple math problem as some people describe it.” But that isn’t the job of the General Treasurer. For a treasurer, it is a math problem, and we shouldn’t expect otherwise.

And Raimondo spent an inordinate amount of time speaking with voters, union members, and retirees throughout the state before making her proposal. Oddly that’s what now seems to rile opponents. As Paul Valletta, the head of the Cranston fire fighters’ union said, “It isn’t the money, it’s the way she went about it.”

I’m not sure what else she could have done. Valletta is essentially complaining that the General Treasurer acted within the duties of the General Treasurer. That’s what we as taxpayers pay her to do! If the unions and retirees are unhappy with the absence of a formerly negotiated outcome, let’s be honest. It’s the Governor, not the General Treasurer, who’s to blame.

I’ve also been concerned that many progressives seem intent on framing the General Treasurer as some union hating, right-wing ideologue. It’s not a fair characterization given that we know little yet about what priorities Raimondo would bring to the Governor’s office, and what we do know is largely in line with progressive priorities (a social liberal who believes in marriage equality and respects the rights of immigrants). During the Carcieri years, we’d have been thrilled with a candidate with progressive credentials a fraction of hers. Yes, she has been at the forefront of a pension reform movement heralded largely by the fringe right. But to assume that makes her one of the fringe right, ignores how seriously underfunded the pensions have been here in Rhode Island. It’s quite a different thing to enact reform out of a sense of obligation than to do so because of an ideological desire to eliminate them entirely.

Ms. Raimondo also learned early on about economic forces at work in her state. When she was in sixth grade, the Bulova watch factory, where her father worked, shut its doors. He was forced to retire early, on a sharply reduced pension; he then juggled part-time jobs.

“You can’t let people think that something’s going to be there if it’s not,” Ms. Raimondo said in an interview in her office in the pillared Statehouse, atop a hill in Providence. No one should be blindsided, she said. If pensions are in trouble, it’s better to deliver the news and give people time to make other plans.

How much easier it would have been, how much less detrimental to her political future (at least with the progressives of the state) to simply enact some changes around the margins and kick the can down the road for someone else to address (historical the way most pols have handled the problem). Should we as progressives be critical of the Raimondo plan? Absolutely, but let’s not shoot down a potential rising star before she’s even had a chance to announce her platform.

July 31, 2012

Taveras Impresses Even Conservative EG Rotary

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taveras netroots — Providence Mayor Angel Taveras at Netroots Nation. (Photo by Bob Plain)

At first blush one might guess the East Greenwich Rotary Club wouldn’t be the easiest audience for a progressive mayor of Providence to impress. But this, remember, is Angel Taveras, and I’ve honestly never known a politician with such a gift to win over various constituencies and to influence positive outcomes.

Angel inherited a cash-strapped city and handled it by getting the three-headed hydra of Providence politics – taxpayers, public sector unions and tax-exempt non-profits – to fork over their hard-earned money almost without so much as a debate. He also negotiated a peaceful and mutually beneficial outcome with the local Occupy crowd, a feat I believe to be unmatched in America.

Last week, he traveled downstate to the most conservative town around to talk to a group of business-backing Rotarians, and how do they greet him?

“You should run for governor!” he was told, according to East Greenwich Patch.

It’s easy to understand why Angel is so popular … he’s got an uncanny ability to level with both friends and foes, to tackle problems head-on and to date he’s proven he’s utterly unafraid of reaching consensus on any issue regardless of where a solution may fall on the political spectrum. That is exactly the set of skills Rhode Island needs most in a statewide leader.

He even explained to the group why it is that folks in East Greenwich ought to care more about the plight of Providence:

“We’re all co-dependent … Providence is the heart of the state. If your heart’s not healthy, the rest of your body isn’t. We’re all in this thing together.”

Taveras has already done wonders in healing the state’s heart … here’s hoping he the EG Rotarians, and many others, will get their wish and Angel will apply his considerable political acumen to the rest of the state via a run for governor in 2014.

May 29, 2012May 29, 2012

Gina, Chafee Also at Odds on Muni Pension Bills

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38 Studios isn’t the only matter of public policy that Gov. Chafee and Treasurer Gina Raimondo disagree about. There’s also the governor’s hotly-debated municipal pension reform proposal that Raimondo has given the cold shoulder to publicly.

While she said much of her work has been behind the scenes, and with municipal finance directors rather than mayors, twice Raimondo dodged the question when I asked her on Friday if she endorsed the governor’s pension proposal. On my third try, she said:

“Here’s what I would say: I certainly endorse the concept of giving municipalities more tools to help them do their work. This particular legislation is making its way through the legislative process, and this is like a legal hornets’ nest. The General Assembly, they are going to have to figure out the legal issues and the language to try and do that.”

Chafee, for his part, wishes Raimondo would have use her pension cred to help his municipal reform efforts this session. In fact, he told me he wanted her to fight harder for them during last year’s special session devoted to pension reform.

“We had a special session, with total focus on pension reform,” he said. “What are we waiting for? It’s time we get some energy behind this important area moving the state forward.”

Legislative leadership didn’t want the municipal reforms in the landmark reform bill last year. Chafee fought for it to be included and Raimondo not so much.

When pressed, she said the it won’t withstand a court challenge.

“Listen, if we could have figured out a constitutional, financially sound way to pass a statute that reformed these independent pension plans last year we would have done it. I wish we could have, I really do but there is no solution like that.”

She added, “We have to respect collective bargaining.”

It’s a fair point, and one that organized labor certainly agrees with. Pat Crowley of the NEA-RI has described the governor’s municipal package as, “Wisconsin heavy, not even Wisconsin light.” The bill would freeze annual raises for communities with underfunded pension plans, lower disability pensions and prevent cities and towns from offering more generous benefits than the state plan.

But details aside, with both municipal and statewide pension reform efforts, inevitable lawsuits will hinge on whether or not a contract has been broken, and if so if a financial catastrophe can be averted by doing so. A ruling last fall said that state workers have an implied contract with the state.

“That was a summary judgment so it remains to be seen,” said Raimondo. “We’ll see where it goes.”

Another theory is that Raimondo doesn’t want to anger municipal unions, which could prove critical if she runs for governor in 2014.

She vehemently ruled out politics playing into her decision not to endorse the governor’s municipal package, saying, “No, of course not. That’s not how I think about it.”

But she wasn’t so adamant when I asked her if she was, in fact, thinking of running for governor.

“Never rule anything out,” she said, “but I’m not thinking about it.”

Meanwhile, the next governor won’t be chosen for another two years and the first lawsuits over pension reform won’t be filed until the July or perhaps January, depending on when the reforms first affect workers and retirees.

But it’s the final few days of the legislative session and Chafee’s municipal aid package, including the municipal pension reform proposal, rests in the hands of the House Finance Committee. The Committee heard the bills earlier in the session and held them for further study. It would need to vote them out in the coming days in order for them to take effect this year.

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