Progress Report: Elastic Rhode Island; Mark Schwager, Typical Candidate; More Binder v. Fox; Kerr on Grinding


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Graphic courtesy of FiveThirtyEight.

Rhode Island, says New York Times number-crunching blog FiveThirtyEight, is the most politically elastic state, meaning that “a large swatch of its electorate are persuadable voters unaligned with either political party.”In a separate piece on political elasticity Nate Silver describes elastic states as “those which have a lot of swing voters — that is, voters who could plausibly vote for either party’s candidate.”

It’s one of the reasons, FiveThirtyEight reports, that we elect a lot of Democrats to the General Assembly and a lot of Republicans to the governor’s office. (We haven’t had a Democratic governor in almost 20 years!)

But it’s also one of the reasons why our hugely-Democratic legislature generally passes some pretty conservative legislation … Just consider our landmark pension reform law that conservatives around the country are so fond of, or our new voter ID law – we’re the only blue state in the country to have one!

Speaking of State House races … only in East Greenwich (okay, and also Barrington and Greenwich, Conn.) is an upper-middle-class, fiscally-conservative/socially-liberal, white, male professional “not your typical General Assembly candidate” because he is a doctor rather than a lawyer or a businessman! EG needs to diversify like Central Falls needs tax dollars; the difference is one deficiency is debilitating and the other is easy ignore.

The reality is, because of the aforementioned attributes, Dr. Mark Schwager couldn’t be a more demographically typical state legislator. He’s also the best candidate in a three-way race to replace Bob Watson (the outgoing fiscally-conservative/socially-liberal, white, male professional from Agrestic … er, I mean East Greenwich). Schwager’s medical experience would serve the state well on Smith Hill and, even more importantly, he possesses impeccable character – an increasingly rare quality in politicians in particular but also people in general…

…And speaking of upper-middle-class, white East Greenwich professionals with impeccable character, EG owes a huge thank you to Patch Editor Elizabeth McNamara, who covers her community as well as any other reporter in Rhode Island.

Mark Binder says Gordon Fox is for sale. A serious allegation. Now that the ProJo put it on the front page, they ought to go out and ferret out the truth. Grab that list from Binder, call and ask everyone on it what their expectation was for their donation and then let us know what they say.

“Like Lazarus, Cicilline appears to have risen from the ranks of the political dead,” Cook Political Report on the Congressman’s comeback, according to Ted Nesi.

Bob Kerr on grinding: “Come on, people, June and Ward Cleaver left the building a long time ago.”

I’m with Mike Riley on this one … Jim Langevin should have done the WPRO debate with him and Abel Collins.

And here’s another instance of me agreeing with a conservative on a fiscal matter.

 

Will Rep. Bob Watson’s 2nd Drug Arrest in 9 Months End His Political Career?


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The Providence Journal (and everyone else) is reporting that Rep. Bob Watson was arrested again for possession of marijuana early Sunday morning.

When the police arrived, they saw a white Volvo sedan in the lot, with its rubber tire missing from the rim on the front driver’s side. The driver’s side door was open and a man who identified himself as Robert Watson was standing beside it, according to the police. There were no passengers in the car.

“The officers observed what appeared to be a pipe commonly used to smoke marijuana on the driver’s side floor of the Volvo,” Buckley said. “The officers also discovered a clear sandwich bag containing a green, leafy substance believed to be marijuana in the area of the driver’s seat.”

This is after his April, 2011 arrest in Connecticut for DUI and possession of marijuana when stopped at a sobriety checkpoint.

Police stopped Watson, a Republican state representative from the wealthy town of East Greenwich, Rhode Island at a police checkpoint in East Haven on Friday and there was a “strong odor of marijuana” coming from Watson’s car, East Haven Sgt. Gary DePalma said.

Which was after a comment made that offended the Guatemalan community (anyone who has ever watched Watson perform at his best on the House floor knows that this is pretty typical for him).

“I guess that if you are a Guatemalan gay man who likes to gamble and smoke marijuana, you probably think we are onto some good ideas here.”

Shortly after his April arrest, Rep. Watson was ousted as Minority Leader in the House on a vote of 6 to 2.

Considering this new arrest, his denial of the April charges and his statement regarding that arrest seem, ummm, less than authentic.

I honestly don’t really care whether or not Rep. Watson smokes pot.  And I give him credit for being a sponsor on the 2005 medical marijuana legislation.  I do care, however, that he was driving erratically, under the influence, and could have hurt or killed someone.  That isn’t cool at all.

But with this new arrest, my guess is that his days in the General Assembly are numbered.  While I’m not privy to any information regarding a Republican primary challenger (oddly, Republican Party insiders don’t like talking to me), there is at least one Democrat who formally kicked off his campaign in November, Dr. Mark Schwager.

Schwager served on the East Greenwich Town Council for two terms, from 2006 to 2010. He ran for former Sen. Michael Lenihan’s seat in the Nov. 2010 election, but lost in that contest to North Kingstown’s Dawson Hodgson.

In the 2010 election, Schwager lost to Hodgson by 928 votes (of a total of 11,084 cast).

Candidate Total votes Pct
Dawson Tucker HODGSON (REP) 6006 54.20%
Mark SCHWAGER (DEM) 5078 45.80%

Dr. Mark Schwager is well-known in East Greenwich politics.  In addition to the two terms he served on the East Greenwich Town Council and was recently appointed as the town’s Fire District Commissioner, by a unanimous vote.  Speaking about his campaign against Watson, he said:

“I just think it’s a better race for me,” he said. “I’m very involved in East Greenwich, in municipal politics and government and community service. I know the area really well, the issues really well. My kids have been through the school system. I have my medical practice here. I was on the Council here. So I’m just very focused on this community.”

Time will tell.

As for money, Bob Watson had $5,167.25 as of September 30, and Mark Schwager had $12,395.75 as of September 30.  The last quarter 2011 reports aren’t due until the 31st, and it will be interesting to see if Rep. Watson catches up.

And how is this for irony…

…released [Watson] at 4:20 a.m. Sunday morning.

4:20… now that’s funny.