Department of Revenue website links to corporate lobby group


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Screen Shot 2014-01-21 at 9.04.56 PMHere’s a revealing nugget about how conservatives win the policy debates in our state:  If you spend a lot of time trying to understand the Dickensian world of city and town budgets, like I do, you’re going to wind up spending a lot of time on the Department of Revenue’s municipal finance website.  They provide quite a few useful resources, but as a helpful hint, they also provide links to other resources.  One of them is the Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council–our state’s most powerful corporate lobby.*

Commonly abbreviated as RIPEC, it’s a coalition of some of the largest and most important businesses in the state, and they take a rather extreme right-wing position in their State House lobbying.  And the conservatives who run Smith Hill take their word as holy writ.  Last year, when they proposed abolishing the Department of Environmental Management and moving its functions to the new Department of Commerce, Gordon Fox and House leadership actually tried to do it.  (Fortunately, they didn’t succeed.)

There are two explanations for why the Department of Revenue decided to provide free advertising for RIPEC.  One is that they’re hardcore RIPEC partisans.  But I don’t think that’s what happened.  Instead, I suspect that the culture of reverence for RIPEC is so strong on Smith Hill that no one thought it would be wrong to link to their website.

Sometimes we talk about the state government as if it’s entirely composed of right-wingers who are basically Republicans.  Although there certainly are many hardcore conservatives, many legislators and bureaucrats would better be described as centrists who vote with the conservatives on economic issues because the center of discourse in this state is so far right.  Although really a fairly fringe group, RIPEC has become so mainstream no one sees a problem with the government openly promoting them.

After all, when Senate leadership needed a white paper to make a show of doing something about jobs, they contracted it out to RIPEC.  Naturally, what we got was a report harping on business tax climate indices, which are basically bogus statistics conservatives invented to help push for tax cuts for the rich.

*I suppose it isn’t quite fair to call RIPEC a corporate lobby.  Many of their initiatives seriously damage Rhode Island businesses.  Their signature initiative, cutting taxes for the rich and paying for it by gutting aid to cities and towns, was pretty tough on businesses, since cities had to raise commercial property taxes to make up for the lost state aid.  It would probably be more accurate to say they lobby for the interests of the executives of the state’s largest businesses. Here’s how RIPEC describes itself.

The Murphy Effect: Why I was wrong About Carcieri


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Former Speaker of the House Bill Murphy is a lobbyist who opposes payday lending reform. (photo by Ryan T. Conaty. www.ryantconaty.com)
Former Speaker of the House Bill Murphy is a lobbyist who opposes payday lending reform. (photo by Ryan T. Conaty. www.ryantconaty.com)

When I was younger and more naive, I wrote a post on these humble pages blaming Don Carcieri for our state’s sudden turn to right-wing politics, austerity, and high unemployment.  I called it “The Carcieri Effect.”  I got quite a bit of flack for writing that.  As critics pointed out, the governor does not have a whole lot of power in Rhode Island, and the real power lies with the General Assembly, especially the House of Representatives.  To a great extent, my critics argued, it was the Democrats in the state legislature who pushed those policies.

They were right, and I was wrong.

What originally led me to think Carcieri was responsible was that 2003, the year he took office, was the year when we turned the corner and began to fall behind.  That really is true.  But something else happened in 2003, something far more important.

Bill Murphy became House Speaker.

A conservative Democrat from West Warwick, Murphy was the man who proposed the tax cuts for the rich and got them passed.  Carcieri may have played a role, but he was not the main factor.

As Steven Stycos wrote in the Phoenix at the time:

Murphy’s election, combined with the victory of Republican Governor Donald Carcieri and the 2000 ascension of state Senator William Irons (D-East Providence) to Senate majority leader (and soon to the newly created position of Senate president) gives Rhode Island its most conservative state leadership in more than a decade.

It was not the Carcieri Effect.  It was the Murphy Effect.

Breaking News: NRA settles with Board of Elections for $63,000


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The Board of Elections has settled with the NRA for the sum of $63,000.  In September, I filed a campaign finance complaint against the NRA on behalf of the Rhode Island Progressive Democrats, alleging that the NRA’s Rhode Island PAC was illegally funded by the national NRA PAC.  In the consent order laying out the terms of the settlement, the Board of Elections has confirmed that the NRA did indeed illegally fund its Rhode Island PAC from the federal PAC, revealing that that actually shared the same bank account.

“Heading into what may turn out to be the most expensive year in modern Rhode Island elections, Common Cause is please to see that the Board of Elections is vigorously enforcing the state’s campaign finance laws,” said John Marion, executive director of Common Cause Rhode Island.  “The NRA, with its vast resources, should have had no problem properly segregating their funds.  This consent decree, with its significant financial penalty and additional stipulations, sends a clear signal that if you’re going to participate in our political process you need to obey the rules.  When it comes to the 2nd Amendment the NRA preaches the need to enforce existing laws.  We’re glad to see that the Board of Elections decided to take their advice when it came to campaign finance laws.”

Since 2002, the NRA RI PAC has contributed $163,495 to Rhode Island candidates, mostly conservative Democrats like House Speaker Gordon Fox, Senate President Teresa Paiva-Weed, Senate Majority Leader Dominic Ruggerio, and House Majority Leader Nick Mattiello.  Mike McCaffrey, the conservative Democrat from Warwick who chairs the Senate Judiciary committee, which has jurisdiction over most gun legislation, has also received thousands of dollars from the controversial gun lobby.  So did former Speaker Bill Murphy, the Democrat who is currently the chief lobbyist for the gun interests in Rhode Island.

Shortly after I filed the campaign finance complaint, the NRA closed down its Rhode Island PAC.  In the settlement, the NRA agrees to follow campaign finance law should it reopen its PAC.

 

Bill Murphy representing former state senator accused of embezzlement


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Former Speaker of the House Bill Murphy is a lobbyist who opposes payday lending reform. (photo by Ryan T. Conaty. www.ryantconaty.com)
Former Speaker of the House Bill Murphy is a lobbyist who opposes payday lending reform. (photo by Ryan T. Conaty. www.ryantconaty.com)

Bill Murphy, the right-wing former House Speaker, the lobbyist for the gun people and the payday lenders, and the man at the center of Rhode Island’s conservative movement, is standing up for one of his own.  He’s defending Patrick McDonald.  McDonald, the former South County state senator who was defeated by Jim Sheehan in 2002, is perhaps most famous for topping the unpaid campaign fines list.  For not making the required financial disclosure statements, the Ethics Commission slapped him with another fine.  Now, he’s facing embezzlement charges.

Also representing McDonald is Norman Landroche, a right-wing former representative from West Warwick.  Let me be clear:  I have no problem with conservative ex-politicians representing another conservative ex-politician.  Nor do I think it is fair to assume that McDonald is guilty, since we really do not know.  What really impresses me about this story is that it provides a tiny glimpse into the often-hidden world of the right-wing Democratic* machine that runs our state.  It reveals a surprising feature of the Rhode Island right, one vital to their unparalleled success–the deep network of strong personal loyalty that binds them all together.

It would be easy for the right to get bogged down in personal fights, for vendettas and drama to seethe beneath the surface, occasionally exploding across the pages of newspapers and blogs.  During the tumultuous period from 2002 to 2004, when Bill Murphy rose to power, there was ample room for a divided coalition to emerge.  Instead, the conservative movement grew even tighter.

When John Harwood resigned the speakership under the cloud of scandal, he is widely understood to have pulled the strings to have Bill Murphy to replace him, with Murphy’s core support coming from Harwood’s right-wing committee chairs (like Brian Kennedy, who is still in power today).  Crucially, Frank Anzeveno, Harwood’s chief of staff, kept his position as the Speaker’s top aide.  Gordon Fox, who had served as Harwood’s Finance Chair, became Majority Leader.  Deputy Whip Rene Menard moved up to Whip.  The core team remained in place.  In a feature from the Phoenix, Steven Stycos quotes one of my favorite representatives, who sums it up perfectly:

Voicing an opinion shared by many others, state Representative Edith Ajello (D-Providence) says Murphy and Fox “are not outsiders, they’re insiders.” And she adds that their election has “the appearance of a hand off” from Harwood.

So when Harwood backstabbed Murphy, deciding he wanted the Speakership back, and Murphy said no, the stage was set for an epic battle, one that threatened to rip apart the Rhode Island right in a fury of nasty, internal squabbles.  Instead, Frank Anceveno remained loyal to Murphy.  The team closed ranks.  Harwood’s bid fizzled.  Providence conservative John DeSimone became the face of the leadership challenge.  The challenge met with relatively little support, although it gained steam when Menard endorsed it in August.  But only a few weeks later, when Paddy O’Neil defeated Harwood in a primary challenge, the revolt died altogether.  When the dust settled, Murphy, Fox, and Anceveno were safely enthroned as the leaders of one of history’s most successful political movements.  Relatively unimpeded by internal squabbles, aided by a friendly Senate and Governor, the House conservatives were able to pull off a bold, audacious, improbable goal–the imposition of much of the national Republican Party’s agenda in an incredibly liberal state.  The rich got their tax cuts.  Government jobs were cut to the bone, giving our state the second lowest percentage of public sector employees.  To help protect local conservatives and give ammunition to national Republicans, they passed the voter ID law.  Unsurprisingly, Rhode Island’s economy collapsed.  (For more, I suggest reading this blog.)

It would have been easy to pursue retribution, but Murphy’s team largely folded DeSimone into the machine.  Although DeSimone mounted an unsuccessful challenge when Fox succeeded Murphy, Fox was quick to mend fences.  Murphy even got the state to reimburse Harwood for the money he spent defending against an ethics complaint.  Menard remained on the outside as a principled, if very conservative, critic of leadership until moderate Mia Ackerman defeated him in 2012.  Charlene Lima, a Cranston moderate and Harwood critic who been brought on as Deputy Whip in a concession to the sensible wing of the House, left leadership to become one of its most strident and passionate opponents.  But Lima was never part of the conservative establishment.  Inside the core right-wing network, there were very few defections.  They all became Murphy men.  (Or in rare cases, Murphy women.)

None of this would have been possible had the conservatives not bound themselves together in a web of friendship and loyalty.  I may fundamentally disagree with their politics.  I may fundamentally disagree with their ethics.  I may fundamentally disagree with how they use their power to squash dissent.  I may fundamentally disagree with how they have governed Rhode Island.  But I have to respect their personal loyalty.  Without it, even with their undisputed political talents, they would never have been able to get as shockingly far as they have.

So I am not angry that Murphy and Landroche are representing McDonald.  Indeed, it speaks to one of their (few) good qualities.

*In fairness, I should note that the machine is somewhat bipartisan–by all accounts, the lobbyist Bob Goldberg, a former Republican senator, plays a vital role.

Huge Win: Gordon Fox Reverses on Voter ID!


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George Nee and Gordon Fox get reacquainted with each other on election night. (Photo by Bob Plain)
George Nee and Gordon Fox get reacquainted with each other on election night. (Photo by Bob Plain)

Gordon Fox, the conservative Speaker of the Rhode Island House of Representatives, sent shock waves through the Democratic Party when he got a voter ID law passed.  Ignoring a plea from the Chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, Fox created a publicity nightmare for the Democrats and a beloved talking point for the right.  That is why it is so critical that he’s now reversed his position, according to reporting from Ian Donnis of NPR.  This is a huge win for the Rhode Island left!

I want to thank the more than 1,800 concerned citizens who signed our petition to repeal the law.  I want to thank Jim Vincent and the NAACP for their tireless work fighting to restore voting rights.  I want to thank the new Providence DSA chapter, which made repealing voter ID their top priority.  But most of all, I want to thank every member of Fox’s liberal district who called him to ask him to change his position.  When DSA and the Progressive Democrats canvassed Fox’s district to pressure him to change his position, I was overwhelmed by the response we got on the doors.  People really understood the issue, they were furious about it, and they made their voices heard.  This victory belongs to them.

Experienced observers of the state house will note that Fox routinely blocks legislation he publicly supports.  In 2013, although he endorsed an assault weapons ban, he still denied it a vote, effectively killing the extremely popular bill and earning himself some glowing praise from Tea Party Representative Doreen Costa.  (I personally suspect the thousands of dollars he took from the NRA might have had something to do with it.)

During the 2012 election, he promised to introduce a sunset to the voter ID law.  In 2013, not only did he break that promise, but he actually tried to tighten the law even further.  By keeping the amended version of the repeal bill secret until right before the House Judiciary Committee voted on it, Fox tricked the pro-voting members of the committee into voting for a bill that would allow even fewer IDs to be accepted at the polls in 2014.  Fortunately, Representative Larry Valencia, who sponsored the bill, was able to pull it before it reached the floor.

So we will still have a huge fight ahead of us.  But Fox’s reversal means we might just win this battle.

Exeter could still lose on the gun issue that sparked failed recall


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Exeter-Four-300x192On Saturday, the people of Exeter spoke decisively. Rejecting the gun lobby’s attempt to overturn the results of the 2012 election, they overwhelmingly voted against the recall of the four Democrats on the five-member town council. But will this matter for the issue this whole election was fought over—fixing the small town’s “shall issue” concealed carry permitting loophole? Sadly, the answer is probably no. Why? Because the NRA still controls the General Assembly.

Many Rhode Islanders are shocked to learn that House Speaker Gordon Fox, House Majority Leader Nick Mattiello, Senate President Teresa Paiva-Weed, and Senate Majority Leader Dominick Ruggerio—all Democrats—have each taken thousands of dollars from the NRA. And I believe those contributions are illegal. (The NRA’s Rhode Island PAC shut down in response to a complaint I filed alleging major violations.) As if that were not enough, the chief lobbyist for the gun people is former House Speaker Bill Murphy, who is nominally a Democrat. All this in a state that favors an assault weapons ban by a 37-point margin.

Even though reform advocates probably have the votes for an assault weapons ban on the Senate Judiciary Committee, conservative chairman Mike McCaffrey (who has also received thousands of dollars from the NRA) refuses to call a vote. Although the House Judiciary Committee is chaired by true Democrat Edie Ajello, who has never taken a dime from the NRA, Speaker Gordon Fox refuses to let her call a vote either. A few weeks ago, Fox told me privately that he will not allow any substantive gun control measures to move in the 2014 session.*

The interesting question is whether he will extend this ban to something as minor as a tweak in permitting authority. In many ways, it makes political sense for him. Letting a measure this tiny get a vote would allow Fox to pretend he is doing something about gun violence, while avoiding actually doing anything about gun violence. Of course, if he is so deeply ideologically committed to the NRA that he opposes any step forward, he will once again deny the people of Exeter this small public safety measure, a measure they clearly want. It is up to Gordon Fox.

*Speaker Fox denies saying this to me, according to his office.  I stand by my words.

Was this David Cicilline’s best vote yet?


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cicillineLast Thursday, David Cicilline cast one of his best votes in Congress, voting against the latest budgetary assault on economy.

It is not easy to defend the austerity “deal” struck between Paul Ryan and Patty Murray.  On its face, it looks bad.  In exchange for $85 billion in austerity, this deal would pare back $65 million of the sequester cuts.  That is what Democrats get.  (Remember how the sequester cuts were supposed to affect Republican and Democratic priorities equally?)

The austerity measures do not include any Democratic priorities like closing tax loopholes for the rich or large corporations.  Instead, the most prominent provisions are pension cuts for federal workers and a big hike to air travel fees.  Of course, there is also the usual mess of blatant right-wing giveaways, like opening more of the Gulf of Mexico up for offshore drilling.

In many ways, this is the sort of “deal” we have come to expect.  Any stimulus must be paired with steeper austerity.  For those of us who believe that we should be passing a jobs bill and fixing the economy, it is a disappointment we have become sadly accustomed to.  Since the 2010 elections, we have been losing the broader budgetary battle–and losing it spectacularly.

None of this is the main reason Congressman Cicilline voted no.  For there is something much worse about this deal–it does not extend benefits for the long-term unemployed.  As the Congressman put it so eloquently on the floor of the House, “just three days after Christmas, 1.3 million Americans struggling to find work will be immediately thrown out into the cold and lose their unemployment assistance, including 4,900 Rhode Islanders.”  To put that in context, nearly as many Rhode Islanders will lose unemployment benefits as the 6,500 Rhode Islanders Gordon Fox threw off of Medicaid this year!  It is easy to see why Nancy Pelosi had to resort to “embrace the suck” as her main argument for voting yes.

While some may fantasize that passing the budget deal will not kill any shot at passing Senator Reed’s bill to extend benefits (which Senator Whitehouse has cosponsored), it is hard to see the House passing it outside of a deal.  Make no mistake, a vote for the budget deal is a vote against unemployment insurance.  David Cicilline has the sense to recognize this.  His no vote on this dangerous deal might just be his best vote yet.

Exeter confirms polling: RI supports gun reform


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gun-controlWhenever I try to convince state legislators that they should support basic, common-sense gun safety reforms, I frequently run into a puzzling obstacle. Members of the General Assembly irrationally believe they would pay a political price for opposing gun safety legislation. The people of Exeter just destroyed that argument.

This belief has always borne little relation to reality. Guns are a rare issue where we have decent Rhode Island polling. According to well-regarded national pollster PPP, the people of Rhode Island favor an assault weapons ban by a 37-point margin—ten points more than Obama carried this state by. Although Obama lost two state House seats, he lost them by less than ten points, and he won every single state Senate seat. Most likely, every single member of the General Assembly represents a district that supports an assault weapons ban.

Taken in November, a Projo/WPRI poll paints the same picture. By an extremely narrow margin, even Ocean State Republicans are more likely to say our gun laws do not go far enough than go too far. When Independents and Democrats are included, “not far enough” beats “go too far” by a much larger margin of 35 points. Given that the pollster, Fleming and Associates, is notoriously conservative, these numbers are probably soft. (They missed the race between David Cicilline and Brendan Doherty by 11 points.)

Because the real election for most seats in Rhode Island is the Democratic primary, these numbers heavily underestimate just how politically silly it is to oppose gun safety legislation. Among Democrats, support for an assault weapons ban is an absolutely brutal 86%-9%. By a nearly identical margin of 87%-8%, Rhode Island Democrats are more likely to trust Barack Obama on guns than the NRA. Yet the entire top Democratic leadership of the General Assembly—House Speaker Gordon Fox, Senate President Teresa Paiva-Weed, House Majority Leader Nick Mattiello, and Senate Majority Leader Dominick Ruggerio—each took thousands of dollars from the NRA. (The NRA’s Rhode Island PAC recently shut down in response to a campaign finance complaint I filed.)

Despite all the evidence, the conventional wisdom on Smith Hill is still that there is a political price to be paid for supporting reform. Probably because the gun people are so loud, far too many Democrats still doggedly believe that their districts oppose reform. The people of Exeter proved them wrong.

Exeter is hardly favorably turf for gun safety advocates. Obama only won the town by six points. As one of the most rural parts of the state, one might think it would have a relatively high rate of gun ownership. This was an off-cycle election, where the NRA’s famed organizing muscle would play to the best advantage. And most importantly, this was a general election not dominated by the more liberal Democratic primary electorate. Yet we still won convincingly. Exeter voters defeated the recall 63%-37%.

If we can win on the gun issue in a general election in Exeter, we should be able to easily win on this issue in a Democratic primary in, say, Warwick.  Senator Michael McCaffrey, take notice.

Math error in Taveras’s pre-K plan


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Providence Mayor Angel Taveras delivers the annual State of the City address.
Providence Mayor Angel Taveras delivers the annual State of the City address.

I believe I have discovered a math error in Angel Taveras’s pre-kindergarten plan.  Instead of $24.6 million, the total annual cost should actually be $55.2 million.

The “Ready Rhode Island” plan is only designed to provide one year of preschool, right before kindergarten, and the math error centers around confusing the figures for all preschoolers with the figures for just four-year-olds.  Here are the key passages:

About 10,800 students are enrolled in public first grade, and we can expect a similar number of enrollees in Pre-K. Subtracting the number of students enrolled in Head Start and Preschool Special Education implies that approximately 5,200 children can benefit from state sponsored pre- kindergarten.

The plan then continues:

We will start by creating slots for 2,650 children to enroll in a high-quality, full-day pre-kindergarten program. Accounting for the percentage of Rhode Island four-year-olds already served by another public program, Rhode Island would achieve a 76% pre-kindergarten enrollment rate, among the highest in the nation.

Unfortunately, the critical assumption here–that public preschool programs cover slightly more than half of Rhode Island’s four-year-olds–is not correct.  However, from the links, it is clear what mistake Taveras’s policy team made.  They subtracted the total number of preschoolers, ages zero through four, enrolled in Head Start (2,966), Preschool Special Ed (2,565), and the Rhode Island Prekindergarten Program (108) from the expected number of four-year-olds (10,800).  Essentially, they confused figures for four-year-olds with figures for all preschoolers.If you just look at four-year-olds, only 21% are covered by a public program, leaving 5,940 new pre-kindergarten slots needed to meet Taveras’s goal of 76% coverage.  Using the plan’s assumed annual per child cost of $9,300, correcting the numbers raises the real annual cost to $55.2 million, up from the original $24.6 million.

Universal preschool for four-year-olds is a fantastic idea that would meaningfully improve the lives of thousands of Rhode Island families.  Unfortunately, Angel Taveras’s “Ready Rhode Island” plan does not present a realistic proposal for achieving that goal. Because of a math error, it understates the cost by more than a factor of two.

It is disappointing that this admirable idea was presented to Rhode Island in the form of a proposal that was not yet ready for prime time.  Hopefully, the Taveras campaign will release a new proposal that corrects the math error and includes a viable revenue stream to pay for the true cost.

I spoke with Taveras’s team about this yesterday morning, but as of press time, they have yet to get back to me with their response.

Come support the Progressive Democrats this Friday!


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prog dems hero adThis Friday, December 6, at 6:30 pm at Waterplace Restaurant (1 Finance Way, Providence), the Progressive Democrats are going to be holding our Progressive Hero Award fundraiser.  We’re going to be honoring Congressman David Cicilline and Representative Larry Valencia.

A past recipient of the Progressive Hero Award, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse will be on hand to introduce David Cicilline.  Representative Teresa Tanzi, a progressive champion who represents Narragansett and South Kingstown, will be introducing Larry Valencia.

Both our honorees have a long list of accomplishments, and I can only list a few:  Larry Valencia took the lead in the fight to repeal our right-wing voter ID law, and David Cicilline played a vital role in the battle to defend Social Security.  Representative Valencia was one of only 20 representatives to vote against throwing 6,500 Rhode Islanders off Medicaid, and David Cicilline signed the Grayson-Takano letter pledging to never vote to cut Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security.  Larry Valencia’s bill to repeal the 2006 tax cuts for the rich has earned him a well-deserved reputation for fiscal responsibility.  David Cicilline’s support for the Amash Amendment to restrain the NSA’s worst excesses, his opposition to SOPA, and his support for regulating marijuana like alcohol have earned him a well-deserved reputation as a champion of civil liberties.  And, despite the opposition of a vocal minority of their constituents, Representative Valencia and Congressman Cicilline have consistently supported sensible gun reforms that balance the safety of our children with the original intent of the Second Amendment.

Click here for more info:

http://www.ripda.org/?p=682

Click here to reserve your tickets:

https://www.wepay.com/events/progressive-hero-award-ceremony

Come Support Maria Cimini Tonight (Thursday)!


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Maria Cimini

Maria CiminiMaria Cimini is one of my favorite politicians in the state of Rhode Island.  Far too few state representatives understand the plight of working people like she does.  When conservatives attack economic growth and the 99%, she is there on the floor of the House making passionate and moving speeches defending those who are too often left voiceless.

There are far too many reasons to support Representative Cimini for me to list, but here are the two that lie closest to my heart:  Her signature initiative, paring back the tax cuts for the rich, is perhaps the most important budgetary goal, not just of the Rhode Island progressive movement, but of the Democratic Party nationally.  And in the last legislative session, she was one of only 20 state representatives to vote against the brutal cuts to Medicaid that threw 6,500 Rhode Islanders off the popular single-payer program.

So please join me in supporting Maria at her fundraiser tonight, which will be held at the Elmhurst Pub (670 Smith St., Providence, RI), starting at 5:30.

Contributions can be made online here: http://www.mariacimini.com/en/donate.html

Cicilline, Langevin support expanding Social Security


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cicillineElizabeth Warren recently made news when she endorsed the effort to expand Social Security.  Organized by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, this campaign has been one of the top priorities for progressives in Washington.  That is why it matters that both of Rhode Island’s Congressmen, David Cicilline and Jim Langevin, have signed onto this effort.

Conservative voices in both parties have proposed cutting Social Security by switching to a less generous inflation metric, chained CPI.  Chained CPI would severely underestimate the cost inflation seniors face.  The bill Warren endorsed, the Strengthening Social Security Act, proposes to switch to CPI-E, a special consumer price index calculated specifically for the elderly.  By adopting to this more accurate metric, this proposal would expand the program and help tens of millions of seniors make ends meet.

The rationale behind this bill is as simple as it is bold.  Instead of just defending against the right wing’s assault on Franklin Roosevelt’s signature achievement, progressives are going on the offense.  We are not just saying, “Don’t cut Social Security.”  We are saying, “Expand it!”  Instead of playing defense all the time, we are finally fighting back.

Senators Whitehouse and Reed are both firm defenders of Social Security, and they have both come out strongly against the proposed cuts.  They have yet to officially cosponsor the effort to expand the program, but neither have many Senators who have publicly supported the bill, including progressive champions Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Mazie Hirono (D-HI).

Congressman Cicilline has been a national leader in the fight to preserve the dignity of a secure retirement for America’s seniors.  He signed the Grayson-Takano letter pledging to vote against any cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security.  He introduced a resolution against the proposed chained CPI cuts to Social Security.  Jim Langevin was an original cosponsor of Cicilline’s resolution, and together our Congressmen worked very hard to gather more cosponsors.  Most House Democrats have now signed on.  That is a fairly monumental achievement, and it should be celebrated more in Rhode Island.  It is because of the efforts of our Congressmen that we can definitively say that most Democrats in the House of Representatives oppose this dangerous attempt to chip away at seniors’ last and best lifeline.  Indeed, it is largely for his leadership on Social Security that we will be honoring Congressman Cicilline at our upcoming Progressive Hero event Friday, December 6.  Tickets can be purchased here.

 

Taveras’s record on unemployment


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On a December 2012 episode of Newsmakers, Providence Mayor Angel Taveras had this to say in defense of Providence’s high unemployment rate: “Our rate is 12%, and when I started, it was 13.7%.”  Given the economic devastation that has befallen our capital city under Taveras’s leadership, these numbers are likely to play a major role in the upcoming gubernatorial campaign between Taveras, Raimondo, and Pell.

So it’s important to understand what’s so deceptive about that 13.7% figure.  It all has to do with seasonal adjustments.  Taveras took office in January, when there’s typically a surge in unemployment as workers get laid off at the end of the calendar year.  That 12% figure was from October, when unemployment stays low as seasonal workers are hired for the holiday season.

The state and federal unemployment rate figures you usually see have had a seasonal adjustment applied to them by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although there is no Providence-specific seasonal adjustment, if you apply the Rhode Island adjustment, the unemployment rate in January of 2011 was really 12.8%, and in October of 2012, it was really 12.5%.  Not much improvement.

Ultimately, I think the best way to assess Taveras’s unemployment record is by comparing it to Rhode Island’s.  I have plotted them together, indexing to 100 in January 2011 when Taveras took over.

Providence Unemployment Rate

The beginning of Taveras’s tenure was marked by a massive surge in the unemployment rate in the spring.  In the fall it fell, nearly matching the RI rate.  Next spring it surged far above the RI again, and next fall it fell again.  Now it’s once again rising above the RI rate.  This pattern of surging unemployment in the late spring is the classic signature of massive fiscal austerity, where public sector layoffs accelerate as the end of the fiscal year approaches.  In a normal economy, the peak from private sector layoffs in January will be much bigger than the public sector layoffs peak around June.  In the austerity-laden Rhode Island economy, those peaks are nearly the same size.  But in Providence, the public sector layoffs peak completely swamps the January one.  That’s the sign of truly extreme austerity.

The tough truth for progressives is that Taveras has been one of Rhode Island’s biggest austerity zealots.  He has closed schools and pools with disturbing fervor, while hiking property taxes to mind-bogglingly insane heights.

There’s no denying the mess Providence faces.  If Taveras had really wanted to fix Providence, he probably would have had to push for the same boring solution that other blue state cities have taken to get themselves out of similar messes–a municipal income tax, which would largely replace the property tax.

You can make a credible argument that the right-wing General Assembly would have blocked an income tax in their bid to keep property taxes high and protect Rhode Island’s regressive tax system.  But Taveras never even tried.  Instead, he just cut jobs and raised taxes on the middle class.  Providence has paid the price in unemployment.  Since Taveras took office, the capital city’s economy has systematically lagged Rhode Island’s.

Thank you Ken Block!


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Ken Block

Ken BlockI don’t agree with Ken Block on very much.  But I am here to thank him–for running for governor as a Republican.  What has always bothered me about Block is that he used his “Moderate Party” label to portray his Republican views as somehow moderate.

But then he became the leader of the conservative group RI Taxpayers, which takes more unabashedly right-wing positions like denying rights to immigrants denied documents.  And now he has come out as a Republican.

The biggest problem Rhode Island liberals have always had is that Republicans scramble ordinary politics by running for the General Assembly as Democrats.  As Ann Clanton famously put it when she was Executive Director if the Rhode Island Republican Party, “We have a lot of Democrats who we know are Republican but run as a Democrat–basically so they can win.”

Block could have walked this well-tread path, a path that so many talented Rhode Island conservatives have taken.  It is the path that gave us a House Speaker and Senate President who have each taken thousands of dollars from the NRA, passed a voter ID law, and slashed taxes for the rich more aggressively than nearly any other state.

But Block has chosen a different route.  He has chosen to be honest with the voters about his political beliefs.  I really respect him for it. I wish more conservatives would follow his lead.

GOP Rep: House Majority Leader Mattiello is ‘on our side’


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MattielloOne of the most clarifying moments in Rhode Island politics is when the small handful of conservative Republicans in our state admit just how conservative the Democratic leadership of the General Assembly is.  This nugget showed up in a post by Tea Party Republican Michael Chippendale on the RI Gun Blog:

After this past session’s overwhelming victory for gun owners, the progressive caucus openly chastised – and literally had a screaming match with the Majority Leader (who is on our side), and Speaker Fox for failing to get the Assault Weapons ban passed as well as the other anti-gun legislation.

Representative Chippendale is calling it like it is.  Nominally a Democrat, House Majority Leader Nick Mattiello has an A+ rating from the NRA.  They’ve flooded him with thousands of dollars of campaign contributions–contributions that are probably illegal.

Chippendale also reveals that “70% of the House of Representatives knows, respects, and covets the NRA rating and endorsement system that occurs each election year.”

This isn’t the first time Rhode Island’s tiny group of real Republicans has praised the Democratic leadership of the House of Representatives for their right-wing extremism on guns.  Here’s Tea Party Representative Doreen Costa thanking Speaker Gordon Fox for being “very, very kind to us gun folks”:

Debunking the Business Tax Climate Index


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List of states by median household income, including Washington DC.  Data from the Census Bureau.
List of states by median household income, including Washington DC. Data from the Census Bureau.  Data accurate as of 2012.  Newer data cannot be accessed due to the Republican party’s unfortunate decision to shut down the government.

I once had the following conversation with a state senator:  She proudly told me that she favored letting the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy expire. So I asked her, “what about Rhode Island’s tax cuts for the wealthy?” “Well,” she told me, “we have to worry about our business climate.”

It is a disturbingly common refrain. Conservatives constantly point to business climate rankings that put Rhode Island towards the bottom. A few months ago, the state Senate, in collaboration with the right-wing lobbying group RIPEC, released a very silly report entitled “Moving the Needle” that harped on these curious business tax climate surveys. The most famous of these rankings is the Business Tax Climate Index put out by the Tax Foundation, a very conservative think tank. A few days ago, the Tax Foundation put out its 2014 rankings, giving our great state 46th place. There was the predictable flurry of bloviating about how this means we need to cut income taxes for the rich even more than we already have. So I felt it was time for a thorough debunking of the Index.

Part of the reason conservatives need statistics like the Index is that blue states tend to score a lot better than red states do on most conventional economic indices, like median household income.

Judging by real numbers, the blue states clearly are much wealthier than the red states. Many of the red states that do do well—Alaska, Wyoming, and North Dakota—have strong economies because they have large amounts of natural resources, not because of their economic policies. Red states, simply put, are generally economic disasters. So if conservatives want to argue things are worse in the blue states, they need to make up new numbers. That is precisely what the Index does. The Index supposedly measures how effective a state’s tax system is at promoting business. But it is actually just a fancy way of distorting tax data to favor conservative tax policies.

Before we jump into the weeds, I need to define two critical pieces of tax jargon: progressive taxes and regressive taxes. A progressive tax is a tax where you pay a higher rate the more you make, and a regressive tax is where you pay a lower rate the more you make. Most of the Index is designed around favoring regressive taxes. Simply put, the more aggressively a state redistributes wealth from the 99% to the 1%, the better it scores on the Index. So let’s break down the top five distortions:

1. Tax Weighting

This is the most important distortion. The Index examines five different taxes and weights them as follows:

Individual Income Tax — 32.4%

Sales Tax — 21.5%

Corporate Tax —  20.2%

Property Tax — 14.4%

Unemployment Insurance Tax — 11.5%

These weights are not derived from an estimate of how much each tax affects businesses. Instead, they come from how much each tax varies from state to state. This results in the oddity that the tax weighted highest—the individual income tax—is a tax few businesses pay. And the tax that the Index’s 2013 report admits plays the most important role in determining business location—the property tax—is weighted the second lowest. Perversely, the Index punishes states for shifting the tax burden from businesses to individuals. Now, there is a good reason the income tax makes the top of the list—it is one of the few progressive taxes states assess. Here is how the tax burden gets distributed in Rhode Island:

Chart from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.
Chart from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.

2. Excluding fees and charges

The Index does not incorporate all taxes. The biggest omission is fees and charges, which are the most regressive, anti-business component of taxation. A state that raised revenue exclusively through sky-high licensing fees, highway tolls, business chartering fees, code violation penalties, speeding tickets, parking tickets, drilling fees, mining fees, logging fees, and pollution charges would receive a perfect rank on the Index because none of those taxes would be included. But all of those taxes very much affect businesses.

3. Punishing lower tax rates for the middle class and small businesses

When the Index assesses the income tax and corporate tax components, it strongly penalizes progressive tax systems and favors more regressive tax systems. First, the Index ranks states by the top rate, and then it applies a penalty for having lower tax brackets for businesses and corporations that are less well off. The results can be absurd. States are severely punished for cutting income taxes for the middle class or cutting corporate income taxes for small business. If you make less than $300,000, which nearly everyone does, you pay higher taxes in Massachusetts than Rhode Island:

Income tax rates in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
Income tax rates in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

But the Index ranks Massachusetts’s income tax 13th, well ahead of Rhode Island’s 36th place ranking. The same logic applies to corporate income taxes. If a state creates a bracket with lower taxes for smaller businesses, the Index will penalize it. This merely reflects what conservatives believe the tax system should look like. It has nothing to do with helping businesses. Indeed, it is exceptionally difficult to imagine how increasing taxes on small businesses could possibly improve the business tax climate.

4. Further diluting property taxes

Even though the 2013 Index admits that property taxes are the most important factor in business location decisions, they have the second lowest weight. Even that does not tell the whole story, since property taxes are further watered down by lumping gift and estate taxes into the property tax category.

5. Punishing tax deductions that help businesses

Perhaps the strangest component of the Index is the penalties it imposes for tax credits designed to spur growth. These include job tax credits, research tax credits, and exemptions from sales taxes for basic goods like medicine and food. Although conservative orthodoxy favors simple taxes without exemptions, it is very hard to see how tax credits for businesses could possibly impose a serious burden on businesses. This peculiar hatred of deductions yields some quite comical results. Take Delaware for instance. With a corporate tax code that gives it far and away the most businesses per capita of any state in the union, Delaware is a famous corporate tax haven. So one might expect Delaware to rank highly on the Index’s corporate tax ranking. But it ranks last. Why? Because Delaware has quite high tax rates but enormous exemptions for out of state income. And the Index does not like exemptions.

Throughout its 56 pages, one theme shines abundantly clear—the Index prefers more regressive taxes.  Needless to say, this has nothing to do with the business tax climate.  It is just about right-wing ideology.

The sad truth is that a slavish obsession with these conservative business tax climate reports has created a seriously unfriendly business tax climate in Rhode Island. We have slashed income taxes for the wealthy and dumped much of the burden on businesses in the form of higher property taxes and fees, especially in core business areas like Providence. It is time to recognize these silly reports for what they are—right-wing propaganda that should not be taken seriously.  That’s how national Democratic pundits treat them.

Gina could hurt Democrats in general election


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wall-street-indyBrown’s recent gubernatorial poll has received a lot of attention.  The dubious primary results, which show Raimondo beating Taveras in a Democratic primary where most voters aren’t Democrats, have been widely mocked.  (For comparison, a Taveras internal by a reputable pollster put Taveras up 19 points.)  The general election portion, however, is significantly more plausible, although nearly a quarter of registered Democrats are mysteriously missing.

One nugget from Brown’s poll is especially interesting.  Even though the poll shows Raimondo winning the primary, Taveras still fares better than Raimondo in the general.  Raimondo beats Fung by only 1.7 points.  In a state as blue as Rhode Island, that’s a horrendous margin for a Democrat.

Of course, in the topsy-turvy world of Rhode Island politics, where Democrats are often just as conservative as Republicans, this makes perfect sense.  Because Raimondo is so far to the right, many Taveras voters hate her, and they simply won’t vote for her in the general.  In particular, workers whose pensions she helped cut will find it especially hard to vote for Raimondo.  Fung may get a lot of spite votes.

Raimondo’s problems go far beyond the handful of Democrats who will actually vote for a Republican.  The real concern is all the Democratic base voters who will stay home.  Many of these voters might reluctantly tell a pollster they would vote for Raimondo, but if it is raining, if it was a long day at work, if there is something good on TV, it would be hard for them to take an hour out of their day to vote for a candidate they dislike.

Even this is painting too rosy a picture for Raimondo. If she makes it to the general, she will enter it after a bruising primary drowning in a deluge of negative ads.  Having faced no opposition in the Republican primary, Fung will be flush with cash and ready to pounce.  If Raimondo is really only two points up before the mud has started flying, it is very hard to see her emerging the final victor.

Many observers believe this is a good poll for Raimondo, but if it were real, it would pose a very serious threat. When a deeply flawed candidate leads in the primary, threatening what should be an easy general election victory, that’s the rare recipe for the national party establishment to get involved in the primary.  Raimondo had better hope the Brown poll is wrong.  If more polls like this one emerge, expect electability to be a major argument against her candidacy.

Taibbi is still missing the real story


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taibbi democracy nowI want to thank Matt Taibbi.  Unlike many national journalists, he admits when he goes far too easy on Rhode Island Democrats.  On Friday, he published a new article acknowledging Raimondo’s party affiliation and tying her to the national trend of conservative Democrats in the Wall St. camp.  If you ignore a glaring and egregious spelling error, it’s a great piece.  Taibbi ends with my favorite line, “Readers, if I’m missing something, please let me know.”

That’s an invitation I can’t turn down.

There is still much that bothers me about Taibbi’s approach of going soft on Rhode Island Democrats.  I wish, for instance, that he wouldn’t use the deceptive right-wing phrasing “pension reform” to describe the pension cuts.  But I have a much more foundational critique.  He is missing the bigger story–what has happened to the General Assembly.

Raimondo, as Taibbi rightly notes, is very similar to a number of conservative Democrats around the country with strong ties to the finance industry.  But this sort of pro-finance attitude is a fairly common feature of the modern Democratic party.  Sadly, the conservatism of General Assembly Democrats takes on an entirely different character.

Most out of state pundits forget this, but the legislature that so gleefully passed the pension cuts is the same legislature that passed a voter ID law.  These are the people who gave us a D+ rating from NARAL Pro-Choice America–the worst of any solid blue state.  It was these so-called Democrats who pushed through the steep 2006 tax cuts for the rich that blew up the budget in the first place.  The top four leaders of the Democratic caucus in our state legislature–House Speaker Gordon Fox, Senate President Teresa Paiva-Weed, House Majority Leader Nick Mattiello, and Senate Majority Leader Dominick Ruggerio–have each taken thousands of dollars from the NRA.  And I believe those contributions were illegal.  (The Board of Elections is still deliberating on my complaint.)

Down the line, the policies the General Assembly’s leadership has enacted have not been the policies of ordinary Wall St. conservative Democrats.  They have been the policies of Republicans.

As Ann Clanton famously put it when she was Executive Director if the Rhode Island Republican Party, “We have a lot of Democrats who we know are Republican but run as a Democrat–basically so they can win.”

Raimondo is not as extreme.  When leadership wanted to skip a pension payment during the recent budget battle, Raimondo and some of the more moderate conservatives in the House balked.  I don’t know how true this is, but she does claim that she opposed one of the more odious components of the pension cuts.

On social issues, Raimondo makes a cleaner break from the extremists in the General Assembly.  She is pro-choice.  Unlike the leaders of the General Assembly, she is not an NRA Democrat.  Although she never issued a full divestment statement, she did pressure a distributor to stop distributing assault weapons, and she did send out a press release saying she would look into divestment.  (Full disclosure: I led an unsuccessful calling campaign to try to get her to issue a formal divestment statement.)

Let me be clear.  I am no fan of Raimondo.  I plan on voting against her in the primary.  But I understand that she is not as conservative as the nominally Democratic leadership in the General Assembly.

I trust Rhode Islanders to stand firm against the money tsunami and vote Raimondo out of politics this September.  In a gubernatorial race, there is enough press scrutiny that it is very hard for this sort of conservative to win.  But in tiny, low-turnout Democratic primaries for General Assembly seats, where politics has more to do with personal connections and money than issues, candidates far more conservative than Raimondo routinely win easily.  That’s the core problem Rhode Island faces.  And that’s the story I wish Matt Taibbi would cover.

Does the General Assembly lag RI in religious diversity?


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State House Holiday Tree
State House Holiday Tree

Steve Ahlquist writes, “With 113 seats in the General assembly, there is not one legislator that publicly identifies as atheist or Humanist.”  That gets me wondering–what other religious minorities are represented in the General Assembly?

My religion does have some representation.  There are two Jews in the Senate, Gayle Goldin and Josh Miller.  (Interestingly, they are also the only two Senators on record supporting the full range of basic Democratic Party policy positions–a woman’s right to choose, marriage equality, an assault weapons ban, a repeal of voter ID, and a repeal of the tax cuts for the rich.)  In the House, the only Jew is Mia Ackerman, a Democrat representing Lincoln and Cumberland.

But that’s just for my religion.  As far as I know, the whole rest of the legislature is Christian.

Rhode Island is a majority-Christian state, but we do have substantial numbers of Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Shintos, Buddhists, Atheists, and members of other religious minorities.  But far and away the largest religious minority in Rhode Island is the “nones”–spiritual people who reject organized religion.  Nones are not atheists–they do wholly reject a higher power–but they do not adhere to an organized religion.  Probably the most prominent none politician in America is Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema (D-Arizona).  Many nones are not vocal about their religious beliefs.  Perhaps some legislators do not identify with a religion.  Are there any representatives of our state’s largest religious minority in the General Assembly?

If I’m missing someone, please let me know in the comments.

MSNBC doesn’t understand Rhode Island


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photo id lawMSNBC does some great reporting.  But when it comes to Rhode Island, America’s left-leaning news channel is missing a good scoop.

For example: Last night, All In with Chris Hayes (incidentally, a fantastic show) displayed a map showing the states that with photo ID laws in effect and the states where laws are going into effect in upcoming elections. Rhode Island was missing.  We should have been on the list of states with photo ID beginning in future elections.

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Hayes attributes the information to the National Conference of State Legislatures, but the NCSL confirms what we already know–the photo ID portion of the Ocean State’s voter ID law phases in in 2014.

According to legislative spokesman LarryBerman, the 2012 non-photo voter ID rules will apply in Woonsocket’s November election, but the 2014 election will require a photo ID unless the General Assembly repeals the law during the 2014 session.  

To be honest, I have a lot of sympathy for Hayes and his team.  In the midst of working flat out to deliver some truly stunning reporting on the government shutdown, I can understand how All In might not think to check whether a deep blue state like Rhode Island would have passed such a Republican law.

Also understandable is Rachel Maddow’s April segment on gun control in Rhode Island:

Nine bills that include a ban on assault weapons and high capacity magazines and improving the reporting of mental health information to the state’s background check systems. It’s fairly comprehensive package, these nine bills.

Now, in terms of whether or not this fifth state is likely to pass the legislation they’re considering, it may helpful (sic) to consider the partisan background of what the legislature looks like in Rhode Island.

Yes, do not adjust your television sets. It really is that lopsided.  There are eight Republicans for the 29 Democrats in the state Senate. And there are six Republicans for the 69 Democrats in the statehouse. Wow.

Rhode Island will have a debate over these measures and some may be changed by virtue of the debate, but this partisan breakdown in the state means these measures will likely pass.

Maddow’s bold prediction was wrong.  The bills failed spectacularly.  The assault weapons ban and even the patch that would have closed a loophole that helps minors access guns never even got a vote.  The only bills that moved were two token bills to increase penalties for having a stolen gun or a gun with the serial numbers shaved off and a third to set up a study commission.  As tea party Rep Doreen Costa (R-North Kingstown) said in her floor speech on the bills that did move, “we’re all really happy.”

Maddow’s prediction was not so absurd.  In any other state, she would have been completely correct.  But not in Rhode Island, where the Speaker of the House, the President of the Senate, the House Majority Leader, and the Senate Majority Leader–all Democrats–have each taken thousands of dollars from the NRA.  And I believe those contributions were illegal.  (The Board of Elections is still deliberating on my complaint.)  As Doreen Costa put it, Speaker Gordon Fox (D-Providence) was “very, very kind to us gun folks.”

See Costa’s speech here:

I should note that there are two small errors in Maddow’s piece.  Her party numbers for the Senate seem to be the old breakdown from before the 2012 election, with the one Independent left out for some reason.  The second error had to do with the package itself.  There was no bill to fix mental health information reporting in the package.  Instead, there was a bill to set up a committee to think about maybe putting in a bill to do the reporting.  It’s a pretty important difference.

I hope MSNBC will issue a correction.  But what I really want is for them to cover the real story, the story of right-wingers taking over the Rhode Island Democratic Party.


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