What’s really wrong with the master lever


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Bob Plain has spent a lot of time in a back and forth with Ken Block about the issue of eliminating the straight-party option (a.k.a. master lever), even bringing in Speaker Gordon Fox to defend its place on the ballot. I’d like to move the debate away from questions of political motivation and toward some facts. My argument is simple; the straight-party option discriminates against the elderly, African-Americans, those with less-education, and those with less experience using technology.

Voting is the interaction of four factors; the voter, the ballot, the machine used to tabulate the results, and the institutions governing the election. Typically studies about how voters behave have to rely on aggregate level data because of the secret ballot. As I will show later we now have micro-level information about voter behavior that will demonstrate problems with the straight-party option, particularly for some groups of voters.

In Rhode Island state law dictates that a paper ballot be used and the names of candidates be arranged by office [referred to in the literature as an office bloc ballot compared to the older party-column design].  Paper ballots are the only way to produce a truly verifiable trail for recounts (though Carlos Tobon can attest other changes in state law are needed to ensure that) and RI shouldn’t consider moving away from their use. There is no better system for verifying the results than the use of paper.

State law also requires use of an optical scanner to tabulate the results. While there are advantages to touch screen voting, particularly for accessibility, optical scanners with the requisite paper ballots are much better than black box touch screen systems. Optical scanners are by no means infallible, just read this scary report from the Brennan Center to see why we need to start auditing the results of our scanners.

The final pieces of the puzzle are our institutional structures. Typically in a Rhode Island election you have a number of different offices (federal, state, local) and ballot questions (state and local) that are a result of the many institutions that govern us. This too plays into why the straight party option is harmful.

Straight-party voting becomes a problem because of the interaction of those four factors.  Optical scanners, for all their positive properties, cannot tell the voter that they have made an inadvertent error on the ballot.  One of the few redeeming qualities of the old mechanical voting machines (sometimes referred to as the lever machines) was that when you pulled the actual “master lever” the only way you could bullet vote was to physically undo your vote for an office and then bullet vote (see pictures) and if you undervoted for it was literally staring you in the face.

Machine with straight-party option not selected.
Machine with straight-party option selected.
Machine with straight party overridden.

Compare the old machine to the current paper ballot (see pictures below).  With the new ballots and scanners if you chose the straight party option nothing on the ballot will tell you what choices you made (or did not make) further down the ballot.  And if you make a change, the ballot does not indicate what impact that might have on other parts of the ballot.

Paper ballot with straight party option not selected.
Paper ballot with straight party option selected.
Paper ballot with straight party option overridden.

Of course because of the secret ballot we cannot know what the voter was really thinking when they used the straight party option and whether what we perceive to be undervotes and errors are intentional.

Fortunately, social science comes to the rescue.  Several political scientists conducted an extensive experiment funded by the National Science Foundation (funding attacked recently in an amendment born out of the ignorance of Senator Tom Coburn) using the same type of ballot and brand of scanner (albeit a newer model) that we have here in Rhode Island.[1]  Because their work was experimental, they could interview voters and examine their ballots to determine if the voters’ expressed preference were captured in the tabulation and thus avoid the ecological inference problem.  And because they were using an experimental design they used a diverse set of participants and could test for how the interaction of ballot [similar in design to Rhode Island], machine [same brand, newer model than Rhode Island], institutions, and humans worked.

The best way to present the results is to quote directly from the authors:

 Our research demonstrates that ballot design matters. It influences the number of errors of commission—that is selecting an unintended candidate—and omission—so-called undervoting.  Voters who use standard office bloc ballots make fewer candidate-selection errors than those who use ballots with a straight-party option. These are the most serious type of error because not only do they deprive a candidate of a vote, they also give it to one of the candidate’s opponents. Wrong candidate errors also occur with substantial frequency—as the 2000 presidential election showed. Ballot style does not have a uniform effect on all voters. Older, less educated, and Black voters, are more likely to commit wrong candidate errors when using a ballot with a straight-party feature than a standard office bloc ballot. The same is true of voters who are using a specific voting system for the first time.[2]

Put into plain English, the researchers found that when using paper ballots with optical scanners and an office block ballot design, older, less-educated, African-Americans and those with less exposure to the optical scan voting machine all had more problems casting the correct vote when the straight-party option was available.  It’s not that they undervoted (failed to cast a vote down ballot), but they actually voted for a candidate other than the one they intended to vote for.  There were instances where the presence of the straight-party option led to undervotes, but that problem was minimized by the optical scan system, and dwarfed by the problem of actual errors being committed by the voters.

In Speaker Fox’s interview with Bob Plain he says, “you have to presume that they [voters] know what they are doing and that they are using the master lever.”  We believe that the analysis we highlight here shows that, unfortunately, many voters do not.  The mix of voters, ballot design, machine type and institutions we currently have just doesn’t work.

Hopefully providing this analysis allows us to move past the arguments about political motivation for removing the straight-party option.  Quite simply, its presence does a disservice to a significant number of voters by preventing them from having their true preferences recorded as a cast vote.  The bill to remove the straight party option has been “held for further study” once again this year.  We have provided all the “study” that is needed to prove that it’s time for it to go.


[1] Paul S. Herrnson, Michael J. Hanmer, Richard G. Niemi, The Impact of Ballot Type and Voting Systems on Voting Errors, April 2008, accessed at http://www.bsos.umd.edu/gvpt/apworkshop/herrnson-hanmer08.pdf.

[2] Ibid, pp. 20-21.

Did Michelle Rhee cheat, as Comish Gist suspected?


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One of the reasons it doesn’t work so well to threaten teachers with their jobs if their students don’t improve their standardized test scores is it incentives cheating. The news didn’t make that big of an impact when it happened recently in Atlanta, but now Michelle Rhee, the superwoman or scourge of the so-called education reform movement, is on the hot seat for potentially overseeing cheating rather than education reform while she was in charge of the schools in Washington D.C.

In a post titled “Michelle Rhee’s Reign of Error,” PBS News Hour education correspondent John Merrow uncovers a new memo indicating Rhee may have had reason to suspect that an overabundance of erasure marks was cause for concern: perhaps teachers were changing wrong answers to show improvement because Rhee’s hard-line reform efforts weren’t producing results.

While the story sheds more light on why high stakes performance metrics may have more in the way of unintended consequences than so-called education reformers are letting on, it’s doubling-interesting for Rhode Island because Merrow reports that Deborah Gist was the first to call Rhee’s attention to the potential concern when our education commissioner worked under Rhee in D.C.

About halfway down the very long story that is making very big waves in the politics of public education:

The official who had spotted the problem and urged Rhee to investigate has kept her mouth shut. Five months after she had informed Rhee of the widespread erasures, Deborah Gist resigned to become State Superintendent in Rhode Island. Rhee now publicly praises her efforts there.Sandy Sanford, who earned roughly $9,000 for his work on the memo, has been paid at least $220,000 by DCPS for various services.

What’s wrong with the ed. reform movement


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Photo by Sam Valorose.

While it is great that so much emphasis is being placed on the misuse of NECAP testing there is much more that needs to be looked at regarding how our present youth population is treated by the education system.

Recent studies indicate that nearly 1 in 5 school aged youth are taking prescription medications. In addition, the abuse of medications like Adderall, Klonopin and Oxycontin has resulted in a number of kids becoming addicted, going to jail and/or overdosing (sometimes death resulting).

I point this out because being a young person today is proving to be more stressful than for the last generation. Sure, each era has its concerns, but for today’s kids the pace of the world is often difficult to keep up with.

In trying to keep up with the tests, extra school requirements, after school activities, friends, navigating through cyberspace, parents etc., etc. some young people either shut down or are given medications to keep up. In an odd way a Cottage Industry has been created – benefiting testing companies, pharmaceutical manufacturers, psychiatrists and so-called education reformers.

While all of this goes on, kids are being exploited and miseducated. With little emphasis on applicability, today’s education system is oftentimes perfunctory. Even kids who ‘keep up’ are cheated. For those who struggle it is remediation, medication, dropping out, counseling and/or a feeling of failure.

We are creating an alienation factory. Too many are prescribed powerful medications so they can remain on the conveyor belt.

There is much more to the NECAP story than just the test. Where once child development was central to how we taught kids – test scores have become the major player. Where once Piaget, Erikson, Gardner and Montessori were discussed, young students are now educated as if in a Dilbert episode.

Addressing the importance of the NECAP is essential. However, doing so is only a part of the battle. The stress being placed on today’s youth is enormous. Somehow we have to step back and look at this.

I am amazed that we are allowing this all to occur under our noses. There are school officials afraid to speak for fear of losing their jobs. There are politicians supportive of all of this reform stuff because it can be supposedly measured by tests. In the end the kids pay the heaviest price. Years from now many will wish they had spoken up.

Conventional wisdom shift on Raimondomania


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I love that Ted Nesi kicked off his weekend column by invoking the concept of conventional wisdom. It’s a topic that came up often last week about why RI Future does what it does in the manner in which we tend do it.

Conventional wisdom, I explained to Ted in an email, is why I devote so many posts to critiquing the mainstream media (here in RI, one newspaper and one or two radio and TV stations each) and the marketplace of ideas (the rest of the collection of communicators who, from Twitter to TV, broadcast our thoughts): for good, bad or indifferent this relatively-random though not-all-that-eclectic chattering class is largely responsible for what the rest of the residents know about Rhode Island. We foment and solidify conventional wisdom.

Think about it: most Rhode Islanders don’t actually know the first thing about life on Smith Hill or local politics beyond the headlines, tweets and soundbites that the chattering class feeds them – some of whom themselves are getting their information second hand! I almost wrote a piece a few weeks back about how, of course, the media is responsible for Chafee’s approval rating – whatever it happens to be – the real question is whether he deserves the approval rating he has.

Conventional wisdom is also what makes Forbes blogger Ted Siedle’s posts on Raimondomania so politically consequential for Rhode Island. He wrote his first post in response to an Institutional Investor article that said she “defies conventional pension wisdom.”

But prior to the Siedle posts conventional wisdom in Rhode Island held that Gina Raimondo was a benevolent reformer who had enriched Rhode Island at the expense of the unions (which, by the way, the chattering class, as an organism, tries real hard to paint as Public Enemy #1). Sure, Mike Downey and I had publicly called her a Wall Street Democrat, but we’re part of what the chattering class by and large sees as the dastardly special interest known as labor. And, for what it’s worth, me and Mike are pretty easily dismissed by said chattering class…

A Forbes.com columnist known as the Sam Spade of Money Management, not so much though.

The Siedle posts pointed out the indisputable fact that the manner in which Raimondo has invested the state’s pension fund will be a huge boon for the hedge fund managers and venture capitalists who get the work while many experts including Warren Buffett believe it is a bad bet for Rhode Island. That hadn’t been reported yet.

I believe the Siedle posts shifted the conventional wisdom on Gina Raimondo. Whereas it once held that she had taken from labor and given to the taxpayer, it now also holds that she then subsequently gambled that windfall with her Wall Street cronies who are the only guaranteed winners in ever-unfolding drama that conventional wisdom dubbed “pension reform” until Forbes.com called it “a money grab.”