Elections didn’t used to be this way in Rhode Island. If you ran for federal office and won, you were pretty much guaranteed an unassailable position from which to plot your next step in life; be that a higher federal office, a cabinet position, retirement, or death. In fact, for roughly three out of four of our federal officers, that’s still pretty much the case. But our newest addition to our federal delegation isn’t finding it so easy.

Yes, the latest news out of WPRI’s pollster Fleming & Associates is that incumbent U.S. Representative David Cicilline has a 4.3% lead among likely primary voters over challenger Anthony Gemma, with 19.9% of voters undecided. Rep. Cicilline triumphed with a 14.1% lead over Mr. Gemma and slightly larger leads over David Segal and Bill Lynch in 2010; a year that had older voters motivated in a right-wing backlash against Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.

The poll ultimately shows that Rep. Cicilline draws strong support from 18-39 year-olds, and has an advantage among female voters. It also shows that according to voters, his apology hasn’t had much impact or made them less likely to vote for him. However, the key issue that 45.7% of voters cared about was “Economy/Jobs”. “Providence Finances” came in fifth at 7.3%, behind “Best Chance to Win in November” (7.9%), “Experience” (11.3%) and “Character” (23.8%).

The good news for Rep. Cicilline is that his job approval ratings are higher among primary voters than the general electorate; in February, just 19.6% of registered voters said that Rep. Cicilline’s job performance was “Excellent” or “Good”. Among likely primary voters, that number is 32.1%. Not stunning, but not terrible either. And since 33.8% of voters rank his performance as “Fair” (whatever that means), there’s a cushion there.

The other good news, one that cuts both ways, is that Anthony Gemma remains an unknown quantity to most primary voters, 45.4% said they didn’t know enough to give him a favorability rating. Among those who did, 37.7% ranked him as “Very” or “Somewhat Favorable”. WPRI’s Joe Fleming points out that this allows Mr. Gemma to build himself up, or alternatively, allows Rep. Cicilline to tear him down.

Mr. Gemma Trying To Ride Two Horses At Once

Mr. Gemma has had some serious issues already. Beyond the initial SNAFU when his announcement devolved into him abandoning it in an attempt to avoid the press, Mr. Gemma has been embroiled in trouble over whether he’d be a sore loser if he fails to triumph in the primary in September; and lingering questions of just how committed he is to the Democratic Party. After a meeting with the Democratic City and Town Committee Chairs Association, Mr. Gemma was blasted by Tiverton Democratic Town Committee chair Mike Burk, who claimed that Mr. Gemma would mount an independent campaign if he lost. Portsmouth Democratic Town Committee chair says that Mr. Gemma said he’d merely write his own name in.

But beyond the he-said, he-said of that particular exchange, Mr. Burk also claimed that Mr. Gemma’s 2012 campaign was reminiscent of his 2010 campaign, which sounded more like he was running for governor than for U.S. representative. Indeed, he’s promised 10,000 jobs to Rhode Island, a claim which sounds far-fetched even if he was running for governor, much less a junior representative in a party likely to be in the minority in the 113th Congress.

Also undercutting him is a problem of insincerity. Having claimed to be the progressive in the race, Mr. Gemma comes from a strong business background, one that was cited for 32 labor violations. He did not vote in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary (one of the closest presidential primary races in recent history), and only affiliated as a Democrat prior to his first run in 2010. He also has said that he is anti-abortion, but would not vote against a woman’s right to choose. Which doesn’t signal strong convictions more than it signals a willingness to do what’s necessary to get elected; a criticism Mr. Gemma has lobbed against Rep. Cicilline on more than one occasion.

Brendan Doherty Lies Waiting in the General

Regardless of which Democrat wins, they’ll run up against Republican Brendan Doherty. Between a WPRI Newsmakers interview where he came out in favor of letting all of the Bush tax cuts expire and a recent statement that he favored the reinstatement of Glass-Steagall to separate commercial and investment banks, Mr. Doherty now has an economic policy far to the left of many Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives. It should be noted he also has said he favors “right to work” legislation and that Rep. Cicilline has signed onto a bill to reinstate Glass-Steagall and supports ending the Bush tax cuts for those earning more thant $250,000 a year.

But Mr. Doherty’s statement on Glass-Steagall (repealed in the early 1990s under the neoliberal bonanza of the Clinton presidency) raises the specter of accusations during his primary campaign that he was merely a Republican-in-name-only, something which is not helped by Mr. Doherty also having a lead among unionized workers versus Rep. Cicilline in the last poll in which they were matched.

If the economy remains the number one issue for voters, Rhode Island’s Congressional District 1 may have a thunderous battle over economic policies that tilt towards the left if Mr. Cicilline makes it through. On the other hand, Democratic primary voters may face a more traditional interventionist vs. laissez-faire economic debate.

It used to be that federal office in Rhode Island was a secure perch. But even if Mr. Cicilline fails to survive this, his successor, imperfect as the leading two candidates for it are, may face a similar struggle in 2014.

The line I’ve been toting is that Congressman David Cicilline isn’t as beatable as his approval ratings suggest. First off, I doubt that his approval ratings are low because of his time in Congress, where’s he’s been a reliable progressive vote (as he was always going to be). What seems to be the zeitgeist is that Mr. Cicilline is disliked because Providence is having budget issues.

I still think without a progressive anti-Cicilline in the primary race, progressive voters who fear that Mr. Cicilline might lose aren’t going to abandon him. Progressives are warming up right now, though they haven’t caught fire (they seem to have a knack for picking disappointing candidates).

If soon-to-be-announced primary opponent Anthony Gemma runs as he did last cycle – like he was running for a different office – then the only way he’ll win is through voter antipathy towards Mr. Cicilline, and not for any love of Mr. Gemma.

Let’s consider that possibility for a second. If you’re a progressive, here’s the question I have to ask: where do you go from there? Who do you vote for in November? Do you vote for Brendan Doherty and give a seat to the Republicans on the off-chance that Doherty will be defeated in 2014? Do you vote for Mr. Gemma, a right-wing Democrat who appears more likely to side with the Republicans than the Democrats and who’s competence you don’t have much faith in, but if elected is likely to stay there for years to come? Or do you just skip voting in CD1 come November?

I’m suspecting the last one for many progressives. The issue is that there is no “white knight” in the wings. Since progressives are over-reliant on the Democratic Party, there’s no way to do an end-run around the Democratic nomination process and run a progressive independent. That independent would also have to be well-financed and well-known (and at least popular with a decent swathe of Rhode Islanders); or otherwise risk media marginalization (a very stark possibility). If Mr. Cicilline goes down in a primary duel with Mr. Gemma, that will be it. Two non-progressives will battle for the center-right of Rhode Island voters.

It’s a sad problem to have. The only progressive candidate is terribly flawed, making what should be an easy waltz to reelection an obstacle course.

For instance, type “Anthony Gemma” in any search engine. See the first result? “Anthony Gemma for Congress 2012.” He’s also taken a leave of absence as CEO of Mediapeel after selling it to Alex and Ani. Mr. Gemma needs to stop beating around the bush and announce already. The ongoing speculation feels like it’s being used as an attempt to drum up buzz, and it’s not helping him. He has been running since he lost in 2010. We know this. I saw Facebook advertisements back in 2011. Mr. Gemma has been attacking U.S. Congressman David Cicilline since the latter took office, every chance Mr. Gemma gets. It’s long past time for him to announce.

Unfortunately for Mr. Gemma, Democrats don’t want him. Maybe it’s the fact he only affiliated with the Democrats when he decided to run for U.S. Congress the last time. Maybe it’s that, as WPRI’s Ted Nesi put it on Newsmakers, “he’s sounding more like a Governor or an EDC chairman” than a congressional candidate. Joe Fleming also makes clear in that video that Mr. Gemma has almost no support from the left or the establishment wings of the Democratic Party, and even his support among its right wing will be shaky. The Party will lock shields around Mr. Cicilline.

Mr. Gemma doesn’t belong in politics. He belongs in business, where he can at least hide somewhat from public view and people are less inclined to challenge him openly. Unfortunately for the all-but-declared primary contender, politics is a public process, where scrutiny comes at you whether you want it to or not. Which is why it’s interesting to see that the candidate’s campaign page on Facebook suddenly leaped up in likes during the month of February.

Just as interesting are the subscribers to his personal page. Who are the 20,000+ people subscribed to Anthony Gemma’s Facebook? And here’s a better question: what’s up with many of their unusual names? And why do most like “Unicorn City Film” as a movie? Or why do Kevin Ubtryvh and Heideo Uthrdl have the same 16 friends (and only 16 friends), the exact same likes in sports teams, music, books, movies, and television, and yet somehow aren’t friends and grew up and went to schools in completely different places? Why are a large majority of their friends sporting the last name “Hic” or else some slight variant on that? Is Penix Jermainebrianne even a real person, or should her parents (assuming they exist) simply be examined for naming her such? Why do so many of Mr. Gemma’s Facebook subscribers follow this basic pattern of an odd first name followed by a last name made up of two names which are usually first names?

Mr. Gemma is about to go up against David Cicilline, a well-financed opponent who has a strong base of support among the Democratic Party apparatus. But Mr. Cicilline may have the money and ground games ready, he doesn’t have anything like Mr. Gemma’s Facebook numbers; totaling a mere 3,456 likes (this is comparable with numbers put up by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse). Mr. Gemma racked up 41,764 likes on February 23rd alone (a date he issued a press release attacking Mr. Cicilline; this doesn’t usually brings tens of thousands to click “Like” on one’s Facebook page). Looking just at his Facebook numbers, Anthony Gemma should be Rhode Island’s most popular politician. Which is why he sits 13 points behind Republican candidate Brendan Doherty in the latest WPRI poll (in comparison, Mr. Doherty has only 5,523 likes).

Now, there’s no conclusive proof that Mr. Gemma is not popular in Germany, Spain, Indonesia, and Dubai; countries where many of his subscribers are from. There’s no conclusive proof that Corinem Yers doesn’t exist (he’s also a fan of Unicorn City Film). But these people don’t show up on a Google search in any other place except Facebook. In contrast, most people tend to at least show up  somewhere other than Facebook, because they have lived full lives. Examples include websites for their colleges, or their jobs, or in newspapers, or even the online white pages. Maybe those following the not-yet-a-candidate are merely people who are so cloistered from modern society they’re only allowed limited Facebook access. And maybe Anthony Gemma appeals to those people. In which case, he should be applauded to reaching out to a forgotten segment of our society.

But alternatively, people (especially those who are a bit tech savvy) could take a look at this and come away thinking one thing: Anthony Gemma is utilizing bots to inflate his social media numbers. Even if that’s not true, the appearance is what matters. Anyone looking for big numbers is going to think that more likes on Facebook equals a better candidate. But therein lies a problem. If your social media followers aren’t dedicated, if they aren’t real, then you’ve just lost a social media battle. To technologically competent people, nothing’s worse than a social media phony. People might begin to think like Facebook user Alex Avalos, who put it thusly to Anthony Gemma:

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Updates: RIFuture has attempted to contact Mr. Gemma for a response, but so far, he has not yet responded.

Sadly, an astute reader has pointed out that the Facebook account Penix Jermainbrianne no longer exists.

We also have been getting some emails and Facebook responses about this story. Readers have pointed out that Mr. Gemma’s Twitter followers are likewise odd, and he seems to be able to rally online support in online polls. Last election cycle, the Providence Journal‘s PolitiFact was unable to conclusively evaluate claims made by Mr. Gemma’s campaign about his status on LinkedIn. Likewise, a couple of readers have said this recalls late last year when Republican Presidential candidate Newt Gingrich was revealed to have followers who were roughly 80% dummy or inactive accounts. However, that was evaluated to be not far off from a standard political account. The second-to-last paragraph of that story leaves us with the idea that we should apply caution to all online interactions and not take things at face value.

So there is no smoking gun to suggest that Gingrich, or any of these politicians, bought any of their followers. But what this kind of analysis also reveals, says Topsy [a social media search company], is how hard it is to say which Twitter accounts are for real and which aren’t. Spam bots are getting more sophisticated; many now have fake profile pictures, fake bios and generate fake tweets. “The fact is, a large proportion of all Twitter accounts are inactive anyway,” says Ghosh [Topsy co-founder].