PVD mayor’s election: complicated city, not class warfare


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class-warfare-2014In the 2014 Providence mayoral election, municipal unions broke unanimously for Buddy Cianci, as did the Teamsters and others. When a huge margin from the East Side put Jorge Elorza over the top, Cianci’s union supporters immediately called it “class warfare,” saying there were two Providences—the East Side and everywhere else.

The data don’t support this assertion in general or in the particulars. It would be more accurate to say that the two Providences are the northern and western suburban precincts and everywhere else. But even this is too broad truly to capture the results. Like most things in life, it’s complicated.

Who won what by how much?

Alex Krogh-Grabbe, who was an Elorza operative and ran his website, produced this map of precinct level data drawn from the Board of Elections website. This map is different from other maps you might have seen because Mr. Krogh-Grabbe went to the extraordinary effort to hand collate precinct data, which is the only way to render these data into a manipulable format.

(This means he went precinct by precinct, hand copying the results into a spreadsheet or JSON file, then mapping that to precinct boundaries. The heavy lines are not the city’s wards but some sort of neighborhood breakdown. Great will be the day that all these data—precinct results, precinct boundaries, ward boundaries, etc.—are available from the city and state in open data standards. Until then…)

This map shows that there are many cities, or more aptly put, one complicated city. Cianci won most strongly in the most northern and western suburbs; Elorza won most strongly east of the Moshassuck River. In between, there is an interesting and complicated patchwork of support, with more of the city breaking for Elorza than for Cianci.

Look, for example, at the Valley. Two precincts that don’t just abut but seem to over-cross each other, broke more than 20% for each candidate. Likewise, the Jewelry district and Hospital district abut, but broke strongly in opposite directions.

Cianci clearly has support on the South Side, but Elorza countered in Elmwood, the West End and Reservoir. In a shock to many, Elroza took Federal Hill by a narrow margin.

Class warfare? Not so much.

Those crying “class warfare” need to step back and consider that Providence might be more complicated than they’d like it to be. Consider, for example, that Fox Point broke for Elorza by more than 20 percentage points or that Mt. Hope did the same by more than 10. Olneyville, Reservoir, deep in the West End and the brutal section of Smith Hill between Smith and Orms (my first PVD ‘hood) broke for Elorza.  Elorza also won portions of Hartford and Silver Lake. Not one of these neighborhoods fits the profile convenient to the argument that only rich, white people support Elorza.

It could be that the East Side / South Side coalition was a short-lived experiment that won’t be repeated. Or it could be that changing demographics and changing attitudes have produced a new electoral equation in the city. Or it could be that Buddy Cianci made a whole lot of people a whole lot of money during his multiple terms in office, and that money trumps pretty much everything.

Whatever happened in this election, I am certain of one thing: it wasn’t class warfare.

Providence should pass a parking tax


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accessibleparkingpic
Map of Pittsburgh courtesy of Streetsblog. Click on the image for more information.

Cities with less parking do better economically and environmentally, so getting Jorge Elorza firmly behind a parking tax should be one of our top concerns.

When asked whether he would support a parking tax during his administration, Jorge Elorza blew a dog whistle for potential supporters and opponents, saying in effect “not now.” On balance, Elorza’s reply makes me confident that the mayor-elect’s administration will institute a parking tax if Providence voters push him on the issue. A parking tax is one of the most important economic development and transportation initiatives that the mayor could take on, and progressives should ready themselves to ask for its passage.

I feel comfortable trumpeting the impending passage of a parking tax because of the particular caveats Elorza had with passing one. He at first said “we can’t adopt it right now”, but then added this:

The larger reality is that our citizens are already over taxed, and we can’t consider adding anything new to that burden. Over the long term, if we can manage to lower some of the other taxes – property tax, the car tax, etc. – I would consider a parking tax, because it’s much more progressive tax. First, it requires visitors to the city to share a portion of the tax burden, unlike the property and car taxes, which only impact residents. It also incentivizes other forms of transportation and ride sharing. (my emphasis)

Why do I think such a seeming non-answer is hopeful? Because the caveats are built into the proposal itself. Proponents of a parking tax ask that the city tax parking, and use 100% of the revenue to reduce other taxes. A parking tax means a tax cut on your house or apartment. We should take this as a yes and start pushing Elorza to keep his promise. Yours truly much prefers a lowered property tax to a lowered car tax for obvious reasons, but even a lowered car tax in return for a parking tax wouldn’t be a non-starter.

Pittsburgh currently has the highest parking tax in the country, at 40% of value, and it brings in more revenue than income taxes for the city (I would favor a parking tax arrangement that also taxes “free” parking–see article here–but getting commercial lots to pay a tax would be a start). Allowing Providence to tax parking could create the right balance that would both favor development and create a fairer environment for ordinary people.

As a type of de facto carbon tax, a parking tax works much better than, say, the gas tax, because if the mechanism that discourages driving works to actually reduce vehicle miles traveled, the result will be an economic situation that favors less driving even more. When drivers reduce their vehicle use, gasoline tax revenues are reduced, and programs like public transportation budgets suffer. Raise the tax to get more revenue, and driving is reduced yet again. But drivers who shun the parking tax by driving less will leave lot owners with less revenue, not transit agencies. The owners of lots, who previously may have calculated that it was worth developing nothing and taking a fee each day from commuters, might get a different idea. On the other hand, if drivers continue to park, the city collects revenues which can be put into property tax reductions. This, too, would encourage infill. So we have a positive feedback loop.

A parking tax dodges some of the objections people could have to a land tax. Residents with big yards don’t need to worry that the city is going to try to punitively charge them for green space*. And a parking tax would favor smaller businesses that often struggle to compete with big boxes, but which produce more benefit with less cost to cities. Big business need not even worry so much, since catching up would simply mean following the set of incentives the city is offering. Got parking you’re not using? Build another store on it, or lease it out to developers for housing.

The parking tax, unlike the car excise tax, has the advantage of taxing non-residents as well as residents, making it a more progressive way of pricing the cost of automobiles to society. This set up also answers a critique I’ve heard of the car tax, which is that some people may find themselves unable to give up a car due to long exurban commutes out of the city. A parking tax would inherently tax those who work in the urban core the most, meaning that city residents who normally drive from nearby neighborhoods to their jobs in the core out of convenience would likely be the first to change their habits and use other methods to get to work, while those who live on the South Side but work out in the boonies at a Walmart would be unaffected. Since a parking tax would raise the effective cost of driving to the core while lowering the cost of living there, many residents would experience the parking tax as a break-even tax or even a tax reduction.

A parking tax, by lowering property taxes, would encourage infill. Currently, the city frequently awards tax stabilization agreements (TSAs) to downtown developers to help ameliorate the city’s huge parking crisis and get new building stock. TSAs have a built-in logic that makes economic sense, but residents nonetheless have good reason to feel annoyed at them. With very high property and commercial taxes (Providence has the highest commercial taxes of any city in the country, in fact), it just doesn’t make sense to develop parts of Downcity without some reduction in cost, so TSAs get something where the city might have gotten nothing. But instituting a parking tax will help to lower these overall tax burdens in a more equitable way. Now, not just those with connections to City Council, but also renters or homeowners in every  neighborhood of the city, will see a reduction in their taxes.

The parking tax should also please progressives because it asks for as much as it gives back. TSAs fundamentally lower taxes for certain people without any immediate short-term plan for revenue. In a city facing yet another fiscal shortfall in the coming year, that’s a problem. Raising revenue for the city from a parking tax while giving that revenue back would be a more balanced approach.

The immediate challenge for the parking tax will be getting a City Council resolution in favor of its passage. Based on my best advice from talking to a variety of city and state officials, I understand that the legislature would have to give Providence authorization to institute a parking tax. I know there are some who have said they’re interested in helping with this effort, but first City Council has to move forward.

I’m going to be working with City Council to build support for a parking tax in the coming year, and I hope that RI Future readers will join individually and as organizations to call on Council and the mayor-elect to pass it.

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*I don’t contend that this is something that really happens under a land tax, as, in fact, land taxes often effectively act as parking taxes, but what I would say is that this clarifies the issue in voters’ minds.

What next in ward 3?


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ward3-2When RI Future first broke the story of Marcus Mitchell’s write-in campaign, the mainstream media wouldn’t give it so much as a mention. But on the Wednesday after the election, it was big, big news. Ahead by a mere 22 votes in the “machine count,” Mitchell would ultimately lose to the incumbent Kevin Jackson on the mail-in ballots.

Regardless of anybody’s opinions of either candidate or their campaigns, we all should recognize that we have witnessed a near-historic exercise in the power of electoral participation. As I have written repeatedly, candidates running unopposed in the primary and/or general election are the hallmarks of a political machine, and political machines destroy communities.

Whether you like it or not, a large portion of Ward 3 made a powerful statement that they were dissatisfied with Jackson’s leadership and wanted a new voice. That portion of the ward proved just smaller than those who supported Jackson. And that’s how it goes in an electoral government.

The question now is: how will Jackson respond to the uprising against him?

Respond or retaliate?

There was a sense in the final week leading up to the election that the real winner in Ward 3 would be Ward 3. Suddenly faced with a serious challenge, Jackson remembered that there was a ward to be taken care of. Seemingly overnight, all the dangerous trip hazards that had lingered for many years on the commercial section of Hope Street were fixed.

But now that we’ve all recovered from the euphoria and/or depression and/or hangover, it has occurred to some in the Mitchell camp that rather than responding to their long-ignored issues, Jackson may chose to retaliate against those who opposed him. He was Cianci’s co-chair, the thinking goes, and we all know how Mr. Cianci dealt with such issues.

So far, I have heard nothing either way, nor was I out looking for it. This man does not live by politics alone. Were I one of Jackson’s advisers, my counsel would be to win over his detractors by acting on their behalf…you know, like an elected representative. Four years is time enough to heal the wounds and rebuild the coalition.

Conversely, those opposed to Jackson may well be wondering why they didn’t challenge him earlier. The conventional wisdom was that his stronghold would prove unbreakable. But if a last-minute, write-in candidate can take him to a hand count of the mail-in ballots, imagine what a proper campaign for the Democratic primary could achieve.

Jackson likely knows this as well. At a certain level, it doesn’t matter what he does over the next three-and-a-half years. If I were a gambling man, I would bet folding money that there will be a Jackson-Mitchell rematch in 2018 and this time for the Democratic primary.

Just like with the Mitchell write-in campaign, remember, readers: you heard it here first!