Immigration reform won’t draw Latinos to GOP


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legalize-my-momSenator Lindsey Graham recently said that without immigration reform the Republican Party would be in a “demographic death spiral.” Unfortunately for the Republican Party, even if the House of Representatives manages to pass a similar immigration bill as the Senate did, Republicans are unlikely to win over Hispanics, particularly young Hispanics who make up the future of the Latino vote and are the largest segment of the voter-eligible Latino population.

Although 55% of Latinos report that immigration is the most important issue facing the Hispanic community, once immigration reform is passed, Latino voters will have to choose their candidates based on other issues and given where they fall on the vast array of social and economic policy issues, Latinos are unlikely to vote for the current Republican lineup anytime soon.

Let’s look at where Latinos stand on the issues. We’ll start with social issues since that is often the place where Republicans claim they will resonate with Latino voters. Indeed, Latinos are more religious than the population at large and are more likely to be members of socially conservative denominations (approximately 68% identify themselves as Roman Catholics and 15% say they are evangelical Protestants). However, even given this fact, the numbers don’t look good for Republicans:

  • 68% of Latinos ages 18-29 support same-sex marriage. In fact, over 50% of all Latinos favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry and 60% of Latinos say that homosexuality should be accepted and not discouraged.
  • Young Latinos are very pro-choice. 53% of those 18-29 say abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

However, Latinos overwhelmingly say that it is not these “moral” issues that they care about. In 2011, 75% of Latinos polled said that politicians should be focusing on economic issues such as jobs, taxes, and the minimum wage. So let’s look at where they stand on the size of government and economic issues. Again, the picture is not good for Republicans.

  • 75% of Latinos say they would rather have a larger government that provides more services than a smaller government with fewer services.
  • 82% say they think the government needs to do more to solve problems. Only 18% think that a smaller government is better.
  • 60% say that the government should ensure that everyone has access to health care (and 60% say Democrats are closer to their position on health care). More to the point, very few Latinos support repealing Obamacare and 73% oppose reducing spending on Medicare.
  • 84% say they want the Environmental Protection Act to do more to limit air pollution and 86% say they support President Obama using executive powers to limit pollution that causes global warming.
  • 77% say they support raising taxes on the wealthy as a way to balance the budget (including over 50% of those Latinos who identify as Republican) and only 8% say they would support a spending cuts only approach.

Although 43% of Latinos say they would be more open to voting for a Republican if “they take a leadership role” in passing immigration reform, only 14% of Latinos say they identify with the Republican Party.  Given where the Latino electorate appears to fall on other salient issues, this number is unlikely to change anytime soon, even if immigration reform manages to get through the political labyrinth of Congress.

If Superman goes housing, make it mixed income


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The Superman Building from Smith Hill. (Photo by Bob Plain)
The Superman Building from Smith Hill. (Photo by Bob Plain)

With the fate of the Superman building unknown, downtown Providence could look very different in a few years. I’m relatively new to Rhode Island, but don’t want the state’s most well-known building to be housing only for the uppercrust.

Such redevelopment could not only gentrify downtown and push low income residents further out of Downcity which limits their ability to get to work and partake in the dynamic life of the city, but it also limits the ability of the city to attract the “creative class” that has been time and again pointed to as a way to rejuvenate a city’s economy (most recently by Governor Chaffee in his NYT justification for signing the same-sex marriage bill).

The thing is, there is a way to both revitalize downtown and ensure that it does not lock out either the poor that need access to the services (like the busses) and the jobs that the city has to offer or the creative class that may one day have the money to purchase high-income residences but maybe not the first time they buy or rent a home.

What Providence needs is a good model for integrated housing success. That can be found in Montgomery County, MD.

As early as 1974, Montgomery County developed a mixed income housing plan that required all new developments to include low and middle income housing if they wanted to build high-income housing. A pretty thorough description of Montgomery County’s plan can be found here, but the model breaks down to three components:

  • All new housing developments have to include a) a section of low income housing b) a section of middle income market rate housing.
  • A sizable chunk of the new housing is available for the county to purchase through it’s housing administration.
  • The housing administration then uses the low income housing for two things: 1) for section 8 voucher recipients and 2) to help low income residents purchase their first properties.

What Montgomery County developments mainly look like now is a dream for land use planners. It is more racially and economically integrated than most of the U.S. and it is relatively sustainable.

The thing is, the plan also resulted in some other not-necessarily foreseen consequences: good schools and a sustainable government structure.

Instead of having all the poor and poorly prepared students housed in schools segregated from the high performing schools which results in a bifurcated system where the poor kids get locked into low performing schools and the rich kids either opt out of the system or stay in locally based high performing public schools not available to kids from across town, Montgomery County has diverse AND high performing schools.

In fact, Montgomery County is ranked as one of the best school systems in the country. And what’s more, they have done better than almost all other school systems at decreasing the race and economic gap in test scores. The reason is obvious—struggling students are not all housed together in struggling schools. Instead struggling students are placed in the same schools (with the same funds) as high performing students. No school is overwhelmed by struggling students, they each have a mix to work with.

But they also have enough money to do so since the tax base includes people from all walks of life—not just the poor and not just the rich.

But if people can’t be persueded by what’s best for all incomes, we might want to consider what’s best for the future economic growth of the city. The “creative class” does not necessarily start life rich. They are artists, technicians, programmers, and engineers. They are also almost uniformly young–too young to have much financial capital at their fingertips for down payments on high-priced homes. Their careers are usually marked by relative poverty (or at least relative lower middle classism) as they embark on starting new businesses or enter their first jobs in tech firms. So if they can’t find housing close to what the city has to offer, they will go to a different city where they can get around without a car and still be able to access the cultural life they thrive on.

Montgomery County has a thriving technology industry and they are second to Boston in the number of biotech companies that are housed within their borders. Most of these were once start-ups where the owners and workers made very little in the first few years, and those companies that have found their footing and turned into money making ventures have stayed because their workers like where they live.

Family Planning: The Economics Of Kids


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I just had my second child. Due to this, my childcare bill is now over $2000 a month. As a result, almost half of my family’s take-home salary is spent on childcare and childcare related expenses. It does not surprise me when people ask why we are sending our children to daycare instead of staying home.

I usually have to take the time to explain to them that short-term economic planning in this case makes little long term sense. Every year that one of us is out of the workforce, our long term earning potential is decreased. That means that 20 years from now when our kids are grown, we will make less than we would have if we had stayed in the workforce. We also would not earn any social security credits, or have the ability to put away for retirement. That means that if one of us stays home today because it makes financial sense to do so, we are more likely to be poor when we are older.

Unfortunately, most people don’t make these types of long term decisions.

Perhaps more importantly, I know several people in which it would actually cost them more to have their kids in day care than it does for one parent to stay home. In every situation in which this has been the case, one parent has decided to stay home until their kids are in school despite the long term consequences. They simply can’t make ends meet on a day to day basis if their kids are in daycare.

So, why is this the case? Lilian Faulhaber makes a great argument in her recent NYT op-ed. She argues that the tax system systematically discourages middle class women from working. The thing is, while it is normally women, it is not always women. The tax system simply discourages middle class families from having both parents in the workforce.

While she does not address this, in his State of the Union address, the President called for funding for universal public pre-school. Having a high quality public preschool program would at least decrease the amount of time that parents stay out of the work force even if the tax code stays the same.

Beware Recent Grads: Sequester Tolls For Thee


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I’m surprised we haven’t seen more sequester protests from the ranks of the recently graduated given this demographic will likely be most-affected by the long term cuts being rolled out. Here’s why.

Since the recession hit, the number of underemployed college graduates has skyrocketed. According the Associated Press, about 50 percent are either out of work or working in a job for which a college degree is unnecessary. Look across the counter at Starbucks, these days your barista is just as likely to have a college degree as not.

The recession has produced a marketplace where recent graduates are competing with people who have years of experience for the same jobs. Whereas college grads used to exit college to fill entry level jobs, now they are competing for entry level jobs with people who have been working for 5 or 10 years. (Better that than no job at all).

One of my students, who graduated last year, exemplifies this trend. After graduating with honors from URI with a double major in Economics and Political Science, she moved back to Arizona. She completed several prestigious internships while at URI and when she left she got a fellowship to go work in Mexico and learn Spanish. If anyone should have been able to find a job immediately, it’s her. Yet when I spoke with her a few weeks ago, she was perplexed because she could not get even get an interview for a secretarial position.

The situation she is experiencing is one in which she is competing with the recently laid off. Instead of competing for those entry level jobs with other recent grads, she is competing with people who have been in the workforce for 5 to 10 years and lost their job when the economy soured. Experience wins when jobs are scarce and supply is high. It’s a basic law of supply and demand. Right now supply is high but demand is low.

While this is distressing in the short term given the large amounts of student debt most of these college graduates have, the long term earning impact is what has me concerned. If these students take jobs for the next 5 years as baristas and waitresses, then when the economy recovers and there is a demand for entry level workers, they will be at a disadvantage against the students graduating then.

The end result: the college grad who is either unemployed or underemployed for an extended period of time has a more difficult path to gainful employment.

This is where the sequester comes in. Our economy is still quite fragile and the sequester is undeniably going to lead to a new round of layoffs. Layoffs will start with government positions and government contractors but the cuts in spending will reverberate through the economy leading to lower spending and demand for other goods and services which should lead to more layoffs in the private sector.

These new layoffs are going to make the job market for our new graduates even more difficult.