Progressive Dems deliver letters to congressmen


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Each month, members of the Progressive Democrats of America across the country drop letters at the offices of our national representatives.  Here is the letter we are delivering to our Representatives this month.  This is the Cicilline letter.  The main difference in the Langevin letter is that Langevin did not support the Amash-Conyers amendment.

Right-wing state legislators in states like North Carolina, Texas, and Rhode Island are launching an unprecedented assault on the right to vote.  It is time to take a stand and protect the most fundamental right of our democracy.  At the same time, we remain in a severe jobs crisis because of conservative austerity policies.  We must restore growth.

Thank you for signing onto Rep. Lewis’s H.R. 12: The Voter Empowerment Act, which would simplify and modernize the voting process, offering equal access for every citizen.  In the spirit of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., we call on you to mark the 50th Anniversary of the historic March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom by cosponsoring, speaking out, and supporting the following legislation:

  • H.J. Res. 44: Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States regarding the right to vote.
  • H.J. Res. 43 Removing the deadline for the ratification of the Equal Rights Amendment.
  • Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment and Training Act, H.R. 1000.
  • H.R. 1579: The Inclusive Prosperity Act, a stronger version of the Harkin-DeFazio compromise bill you have cosponsored.  Without a large number of Democrats endorsing a fully robust financial speculation tax, the compromise effort runs the risk of being watered down even further.

We would like as well to thank you for supporting the Amash-Conyers amendment to stop the indiscriminate tapping of phone calls and collection of emails from millions of Americans.  We are very pleased that you recognize that this type of surveillance weakens our most fundamental right to privacy while doing nothing to enhance the overall security of this country.*

Finally, we join with the George Wiley Center to thank you most sincerely for fighting to maintain the SNAP program, and we ask that you provide us with the names and contact information for your staffers responsible for all of these issues.

*In the Langevin letter, this paragraph reads:  “We would also like to thank you for holding a town hall meeting where we and other constituents could explain our concerns with your vote against the Amash-Conyers amendment.  This amendment would have stopped the indiscriminate tapping of phone calls and collection of emails from millions of Americans.”

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Progressive Dems deliver letters to RI senators


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Each month, members of the Progressive Democrats of America across the country drop letters at the offices of our national representatives.  Here is the letter we are delivering to our Senators this month.  (This is the Whitehouse letter.  The Reed letter is nearly identical.)

In the Spirit of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., we call on you to mark the 50th Anniversary of the historic March on Washington by cosponsoring, speaking out, and supporting Senate 123: The Voter Empowerment Act of 2013.  Right-wing state legislators in states like North Carolina, Texas, and Rhode Island are launching an unprecedented assault on the right to vote.  It is time to take a stand and protect the most fundamental right of our democracy.

We are also writing to encourage you to introduce a Senate version of Representative Keith Ellison’s Inclusive Prosperity Act (H.R. 1579).  Also known as the Robin Hood Tax, this financial speculation tax would generate hundreds of billions of dollars to fund job creation, help the economy, and protect the social safety net.  Ultimately, the goal of the Inclusive Prosperity Act is to strengthen the Harkin-DeFazio compromise bill you have cosponsored.*  Without a large number of Democrats endorsing a fully robust financial speculation tax, the compromise effort runs the risk of being watered down even further.

We would like to thank you for your work to prevent a hike in student loan interest rates.  We do believe it would have been wiser to make a stronger bill like Elizabeth Warren’s the initial Democratic offer, allowing for Senator Reed’s bill as the final compromise.  However, we view it as an extremely positive development that a group of anti-debt Senators got organized to fight this battle.  The wing of the party with sensible views on economic issues has been far too silent for far too long.  We hope that our Senators will continue to work with Elizabeth Warren, Mazie Hirono, Barbara Boxer, Richard Blumenthal, and other pro-growth Senators to fight for common sense policies designed to help restore growth to our lagging economy.

Progressives find it frustrating that, even though there is widespread agreement among economists (including fairly conservative ones) that monetary stimulus programs should be expanded, liberals in Congress do not push for more easing.  Instead, liberals, if they do weigh in on monetary policy, tend to defend Bernanke (who was, let us not forget, a Bush nominee) against the extremist Ron Paul/Ayn Rand stance of the modern Republicans.  Even some of the most moderate of today’s Republicans would like to see an actively deflationary monetary policy of the sort that caused the Long Depression in the late Nineteenth Century.

As a result, monetary policy winds up falling somewhere between where Bush’s Fed would like it and where Paul Ryan would like it.  What this means is that monetary policy has been so tight that the Fed has actually allowed the inflation rate to fall below its target (a target that liberals would argue is far too low).  This is such a violation of old-school conservative monetary policy that we recently had the spectacle of the notedly hawkish conservative James Bullard voting against Bernanke’s monetary policy because it was so tight!

If Democrats in Congress were willing to push for more expansionary monetary policy, we would probably wind up with roughly centrist policy, which would probably entail pushing unemployment down to around 5-6%, allowing inflation to rise to around 4-5%.  This would make Obama very popular and ensure that we keep the Senate in 2014 and the Presidency in 2016.  We fear that a status quo candidate like Yellen, while better than Summers, might actually continue with Bernanke’s plan to “taper” monetary stimulus programs in 2014, weakening the economy right before the 2014 elections and handing the Senate to the Republicans.  But if even a small handful of Senators push for an expansion of monetary stimulus, we will likely prevent the looming monetary austerity package.

We strongly encourage our Senators to push for an expansion of easing programs to fight low inflation and high unemployment.  So while we are happy that you signed onto the letter because its implicit goal was to oppose Summers, we still do have considerable concerns about Yellen and would prefer a more pro-growth Fed Chairwoman, with Christina Romer probably being the most realistic acceptable choice.

Finally, we join with the George Wiley Center to thank you for fighting to maintain the SNAP program, and we ask that you provide us with the names and contact information for your staffers responsible for all of these issues.

*Senator Reed has not cosponsored Harkin-DeFazio.

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Stop calling the pension cuts a ‘reform’


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enron pension“Pension reform.”  It’s a phrase we’ve all heard.  We’ve heard it from right-wing pundits and conservative politicians.  We’ve heard it from ALEC.  We’ve heard it from RIPEC.  We’ve even heard it from labor leaders, progressive politicians, and the august pages of this blog.  I’m embarrassed to say I’ve heard those words tumble out of my mouth.  And that’s a problem.

Rhetoric matters.  Conservatives never say they want to cut Social Security, they say they want to “reform” it.  It’s the same story with Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, and welfare.  And pensions.  At the national level, liberals occasionally slip up and say, “entitlement reform,” but most liberals and unbiased journalists call cutting Social Security “cutting Social Security.”  So it is a touch odd that in Rhode Island we adopted this right-wing phrasing whole cloth.  Somehow, everyone started calling the pension cuts “pension reform.”

It’s time to stop.  A few months ago, the Rhode Island Progressive Democrats made a decision.  We decided we were going to call the pension cuts exactly what they are–pension cuts.  I’m asking you to join us.  Call the cuts cuts.  Whenever you hear anyone say, “pension reform,” correct them.

The correct phrase is “pension cuts.”

Whitehouse just introduced an awesome bill


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Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse at Forward on Climate rally
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse at Forward on Climate rally
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse at Forward on Climate rally. (Photo by Jack McDaid.)

Working with Elizabeth Warren, Sheldon Whitehouse just introduced what I humbly submit is the second-best bill introduced in this Congress.  He introduced the Marquette fix.

This is a bit of a wonkish issue, but it’s also a BFD, so please bear with me for a moment.  Basically, this bill would overrule Marquette v. First of Omaha, the 1978 Supreme Court decision that was the biggest bank deregulation in American history.  What Marquette did was deceptively simple.  It said that when a bank chartered in one state makes a loan in another state, it’s the laws of the state in which the bank is chartered that apply, not the laws of the state in which the loan is made.  That seems innocuous, but here’s what happened after the decision came down:  South Dakota and Delaware completely deregulated their banking industries, and a bunch of banks chartered themselves in those states, effectively wiping out the vast majority of sensible state-based banking safeguards.

Usury laws were the most important banking restriction to fall.  A hard cap on interest rates, usury laws used to prevent banks from charging ridiculously high interest rates.  But South Dakota and Delaware do not have usury laws, which effectively allows all US banks to charge whatever interest rates they want to.  That’s a big deal.  Before Marquette, the business of abusive consumer lending really could not exist, and it was actually somewhat difficult for banks to cheat their customers.  Obviously, things have changed.

Perhaps most importantly, blue states no longer have the power to protect their citizens from banking abuses.  States like California and Massachusetts might like to protect their citizens from the banks, but they are essentially powerless.  Unsurprisingly, Rhode Island has some fairly right-wing lending laws.  Our usury rate is pretty high (21% or 9% above the Wall St. Journal prime rate, whichever is higher), and one of Bill Murphy’s first acts as Speaker was to put in a special carve-out for credit card issuers.

Because of Marquette, this is largely irrelevant, but there are some things we can do to combat banking abuses.  Payday lenders, interestingly, do not really have Marquette protection because of federal regulations, and states can and do regulate them.  (Of course, with former Speaker Murphy lobbying for the payday lenders and Gordon Fox as Speaker, that’s a long way from happening in Rhode Island.)

What Whitehouse’s bill does is grant states the ability to set cap interest rates.  If this bill passed, blue states would actually have the tools they need to really crack down on abusive practices by the big banks.  And immediately, a large body of pre-Marquette law would slam back into place.  We would have usury laws again.

The odds for this bill are slim, but I’m glad to see Senator Whitehouse keeping the conversation alive, and I’m glad to see Senator Reed, long a quiet champion of financial reform, cosponsoring this excellent piece of legislation.  Good work, Senators!

Why the Sakonnet River Bridge tolls matter

Sakonnet River BridgeIt’s not often that I disagree with Bob Plain, but I think he underestimates the importance of the battle over the Sakonnet River Bridge tolls.

There are three important things going on here:
First, as progressives, we should oppose tolls as a matter of principle.  Because everybody pays the same rate no matter how much you make, tolls are one of the most regressive taxes out there, hitting those who can least afford to pay the hardest.  They also waste a ton of time.  By sending people way out of their way to avoid them, tolls waste a lot of gas, which is bad for the environment.  Unlike income taxes, they do do serious damage to the economy.  Oh, and they’re quite expensive to collect.  Ending the income tax cuts for the rich makes more sense.  Even raising regressive property and sales taxes makes more sense.

Secondly, this is yet another example of House leadership breaking promises.  After having put in a compromise on the tolls to secure the East Bay representatives’ votes on the budget–votes necessary for the budget’s passage–Fox changed course and added the 10-cent toll.  Although just the latest example of House leadership going back on its word, this time it put real fury on the floor.  That night, the ranks of the anti-Fox caucus swelled considerably.

If leadership keeps this up, progressives should have the votes to block another right-wing budget come this time next year.

Finally, and most importantly, this battle is about how we plan on paying for the delayed maintenance on our infrastructure.  Traditionally, infrastructure is funded through bonds, but for reasons that remain unclear to me, we have decided not to fully fund maintenance when we do our infrastructure bonds.  As a result, we have to spend quite a bit more money replacing bridges.  The obvious thing to do would be to do a simple deferred maintenance bond and start a practice of pre-funding maintenance in the original infrastructure bond issues.  Because the Fed has given us a one-time opportunity to borrow at very low interest rates–and because deferring maintenance usually winds up costing more later–we are wasting tons of taxpayer money by not floating a huge infrastructure maintenance bond before interest rates rise.  That’s before you even get into all the jobs an infrastructure bond would create.  (I know Keynesianism is a hard sell on Smith Hill, but that doesn’t make it any less correct.)

But that’s not what the General Assembly is planning on doing.  In her floor speech on the tolls, conservative Senate President Paiva-Weed did not mince her words about where the right-wing leadership is heading on this issue.  “The fact is, we need to start looking at user fees,” she declared.  Translation:  Instead of taking advantage of a free lunch on maintenance bonds, we will be funding repairs on the backs of those who can least afford to pay.

So no, the toll battle is not a bunch of meaningless whining about ten cents.  It is about progressive taxation, it is about a breach of trust, and it is about Keynes.

Progressive Dems thank delegation for Farm Bill


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sheldon whitehouse healthcare copyEach month, members of the Progressive Democrats of America across the country send letters to our national representatives. Last month, our top priority was killing the Farm Bill because of its draconian cuts to food stamps.  In a surprise victory, the Farm Bill went down in the House.

By voting against the Senate bill, Senators Jack Reed and Sheldon Whitehouse were crucial players in one of progressives’ few national wins. We’re very proud of their leadership.

Below is an example of the letters we sent to our congressional delegation, cosponsored by the George Wiley Center:

Thank you for voting against the Senate Farm Bill because of its irresponsible cuts to food stamps!  Your leadership is inspiring.  All around the country, members of the Progressive Democrats of America are delivering letters to their Representatives and Senators urging them to join with you and Senator Reed to stand up for the voiceless millions going hungry in America.  We cannot afford to lose this fight.

In a fit of austerian cruelty, the heartless budget cutters in the House propose to slash $20.5 billion from this vital program.  Democrats cannot let this happen.  If Washington insists on intellectually bankrupt austerity policies that keep millions out of work through no fault of their own, surely the least Congress can do is let the unemployed eat.  We urge you to stay strong and continue to oppose any farm bill that cuts food stamps.

Also known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), food stamps are one of the most effective government programs.  Average benefits provided under SNAP are only $133.41 per person per month—not even $1.50 per meal.  Yet nutritional assistance is among the most powerful economic stimuli, with benefits that flow directly and immediately into the economy, boosting aggregate demand and creating jobs. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack confirmed, “Every dollar of SNAP benefits generates $1.84 in the economy.” Conversely, decreasing SNAP would cause increased health care costs and incite crime, diminish productivity, stunt childhood development, and impose other collateral damage on innocent American families.

We are proud to be represented by the two Democratic Senators who refuse to vote for a farm bill that cuts this critical lifeline.  Please keep fighting!

Thank you for your time and attention,

The Rhode Island Progressive Democrats of America and the George Wiley Center.

Progressives should vote against the budget


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George Nee and Gordon FoxProgressives have always had a complicated relationship with House Speaker Gordon Fox.  Though deeply concerned that Fox’s very conservative economic policies are destroying our state, we have always supported the House leadership team because Fox’s likely successors, Helio Melo and Nick Mattiello, are even more conservative than he is.

When Speaker Fox faced the progressive voters of the East Side in November, they were angry—angry at the bevy of red-state legislation Fox had actively pushed for.  Fox promised to change.  He promised to sunset the ALEC-backed voter ID law he supported, a law he passed even though the chairwoman of the national Democratic Party called him to beg him to reconsider.  He promised to consider not bailing out Wall Street on the 38 Studios deal he helped orchestrate.  He promised to work with progressives on scaling back the tax cuts for the rich, tax cuts he had once promised would create jobs.  He promised, in essence, to govern like the Democrat he once was.  It has now become clear that he does not intend to honor those pledges.  Jolting sharply to the right, Fox has launched a campaign against Democratic values.  Here is a sample of his recent right-wing moves:

  • He is handing Newport Grand a million-dollar bailout.
  • He is forcing through a much, much larger bailout of the 38 Studios bondholders.
  • He is throwing 6,500 Rhode Islanders off Medicaid.
  • He is skipping a pension fund payment, in a gratuitous middle finger to labor.
  • He is refusing to roll back some of the tax cuts for the rich and instead raising taxes on the middle class through steep tolls on the Sakonnet River Bridge.
  • He is paring back Chafee’s already minuscule municipal aid package, forcing the City of Woonsocket into receivership.
  • He is blocking the family planning expansion under ObamaCare.
  • Like the US Senate’s filibustering Republicans, he is refusing to let an assault weapons ban or background checks reporting get a vote.
  • Finally, not only did he break his promise to sunset the voter ID law, he snuck in a provision to tighten voting restrictions even further.  Telling the members of the Judiciary Committee that they were voting to freeze the current law to prevent the harsher 2014 restrictions from coming into effect, they refused to release the actual bill in time for everyone to read it.  A violation of the trust the statehouse runs on, this move tricked many pro-voting committee members to vote for this red-state-style assault on our democracy.

When she was the Executive Director of the Rhode Island GOP, Ann Clanton famously admitted, “We have a lot of Democrats who we know are Republican but run as a Democrat — basically so they can win.”  Progressives cannot help but look at Gordon Fox’s recent record and conclude that he is indeed one of those Republicans hiding in the Democratic Party.  We urge the General Assembly to stand up for Rhode Island values and stop this conservative onslaught.

We are not the only ones who are angry.  We have heard from a large and growing body of furious Representatives that there will be a serious effort to vote down the budget to stop the 38 Studios bailout.  If the progressive bloc in the House breaks away from leadership on this issue, we can block this right-wing budget and force something a little more reasonable.

So we call on progressives to vote this budget down.  We understand the power of leadership and all the practicalities that entails, but if any progressives are forced to vote against their conscience, we sincerely hope that it is in exchange for a more moderate budget.  And we call on Gordon Fox to return to the principles he ran on.

Progressive Dems dismayed by Chafee’s support for Gist


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RI4M_chafeeThe following is an open letter to Governor Chafee from the Rhode Island Progressive Democrats in response to the renewal of Education Commissioner Deborah Gist’s contract:

Working teachers have gotten together with their leadership to give voice to the despair they feel over the conditions in the Rhode Island schools.  One of those troubling conditions is the Commissioner’s insistence that the state use a standardized test to determine whether students can graduate from high school and as a means of evaluating teachers—the very test that is specifically designed for improving curriculum and specifically not intended for the purposes for which Commissioner Gist plans to use it.  Many educational researchers have repeatedly indicated that the testing frenzy is totally counterproductive to the educational outcomes of students and the data is proving that. Even Bill Gates, who, since 2009, put enormous resources behind qualitative testing, has recently made a turnaround in his thinking. Students need to be engaged and involved in their educational experience. Superintendent Gist’s fixation with testing is the antithesis of engagement. It is factory model teaching.

Another area of concern is Superintendent Gist’s background and alliances within the country’s educational community.  Her association with Eli Broad, for example, indicates an agenda that has more to do with the privatization of schools and the elimination of teachers’ unions than it does with providing an excellent education for Rhode Island students.

Finally, the teachers have repeatedly spoken about the condescending attitude the superintendent exhibits toward teachers, parents, and students in almost every interaction. Her unwillingness to even entertain suggestions is becoming legendary throughout the state.

Every public meeting has become a vote of no confidence in the Superintendent of Rhode Island Schools from teachers around the state. This same sentiment was reflected in the Providence Journal poll where readers were invited to vote on whether Supt. Gist’s contract should be renewed and an overwhelming number voted no. The unions commissioned another poll where 400 plus teachers were called at random with the same negative results. Do you really think that extending the contract of a Superintendent who is held in such low regard by the very people she is supposed to lead is in the best interest of the children of Rhode Island?

When you were first running for governor, the Rhode Island Progressive Democrats invited you to participate in a formal endorsement process where members of our Executive Board asked you and other candidates—each separately—to comment on issues facing Rhode Island. One segment was devoted to education and, when you were asked about your thoughts on charter schools and mayoral academies, you were eloquent in your response about how you were not a big fan of these kinds of schools because they drew money away from the regular public schools, and you felt the state should be committed to an equally high quality education for all our students rather than special treatment for a relatively small segment of the population.  As an organization we were delighted with that response and highlighted it in messages we sent out to our whole organization urging them to not only vote for you but to actively work for your election. We remain mystified by what appears to be a complete reversal from the ideals you espoused during that interview. If the commitment to Rhode Island school children you expressed when running for governor was authentic, it is hard to understand the basis for a decision to renew Deborah Gist’s contract.

At the very least, we would urge you to delay the vote and assign a member of your staff to do some investigation into the latest research on high-stakes testing and the people who are backing these type of “reform “ efforts, what their agenda really is, and exactly who stands to gain from such “innovations.”  You certainly need to have that information before making an informed decision, and you need to share it with the Board of Education so they too have all the facts before their vote.

In last month’s poll, 60% of working teachers said they would not take up teaching if they had to do it over again.  That is a heart-breaking statistic.  We have no greater resource than the intelligence and skills of our youth and no better guardians than their teachers.  Please show them the respect and the care they deserve.

Congressman Cicilline stands with Sen. Warren


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elizabeth warrenElizabeth Warren made waves recently when she introduced the Bank on Students Loan Fairness Act, which would offer students the same low interest rate the Federal Reserve offers big banks through the discount window, currently around 0.75%. This strong proposal highlights one of the most destructive, anti-capitalist practices of our government.

The Fed, which is partially owned and controlled by the banks, has been offering those very banks very low interest loans. Even though the abyss of private sector debt crippling ordinary consumers remains the primary force holding down aggregate demand, the Fed has refused to take more aggressive action to lower the real interest rates ordinary Americans pay on that debt. Warren’s bill would change that.

The sort of populist message that made the Democratic party the electoral juggernaut it once was, this bill has garnered considerable support from red state Democrats. Of the seven Senate cosponsors, four hail from states that voted for Romney and McCain. What these Senators see in Elizabeth Warren’s brand is that old-school FDR Democratic party, that pro-growth Democratic party that once swept to victory in today’s red states by catastrophic margins. Economic populism made the party great. If we return to it, we will be great again.

That is why it is so important that David Cicilline signed on as a cosponsor of the House version of Warren’s bill. It is a vote of confidence in the true vision of the party. Congressman Cicilline deserves to be recognized for his strong stance on this issue. You can give him a call to thank him here:

David Cicilline: (202)-225-4911

Unfortunately, Langevin, Reed, and Whitehouse have yet to sign onto Warren’s bill. Each of them has a good record on financial issues and should be winnable. If you’d like to see them join Elizabeth Warren, you can give them a call here:

Jim Langevin: (202) 225-2735

Jack Reed: (202) 224-4642

Sheldon Whitehouse: (202) 224-2921

A key ally of Warren on the banking committee, Jack Reed has introduced a compromise bill that keeps the interest rate on student loans from doubling but doesn’t push to lower them. Compromise is important. But it should never be your opening offer. Without a bold progressive proposal like Warren’s, Reed’s compromise will be seen as what the Democrats want. It will be the place Republicans start bargaining from. So the best thing Senator Reed can do to protect his bill is cosponsor Senator Warren’s.

PolitiFact RI once again shows right-wing bias


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I was going to write about this this weekend, but the Huffington Post beat me to it.

PolitiFact is well-known nationally for its conservative bias. In Rhode Island, where PolitiFact has partnered with the right of center Providence Journal, this bias was recently on full display. Recently, they went after David Cicilline for saying on Newsmakers that the Social Security payroll tax is currently assessed on about 83 percent of income, down from a peak of “approximately 90 percent of the income generated in this country…which was sort of where it has been historically.”

This is true. Even PolitiFact admits that both numbers are correct. In order to justify a “mostly false” rating, they claim that Cicilline’s muttered qualifier, “sort of where it has been historically,” amounted to saying that 90 percent was the historical average, not the peak. That sort of unreasonable quibbling could arguably justify a “mostly true.” But there really is no defending a “mostly false” rating.

In fact, PolitiFact was guilty of some misleading of their own. The percentage of earnings taxed started at 92 when the program was implemented in 1937, dipped down to a low of 71 in 1965, and rose to a peak of 90 in 1982 and 1983. It has since declined to 83 percent. In their quest for a “mostly false,” PolitiFact neglected to mention the fact that the figure started at 92 percent, giving the impression that 90 percent was the all-time peak, instead of the closest the income percentage ever came to returning to its starting point.

The cap on social security taxes is one of the most regressive features of America’s tax system. To help address this, Obama added a 0.9 percentage point high-income surcharge on the Medicare tax and cut the Social Security tax by two points. Here’s what that looks like in chart form:

payrollTaxRate

Sadly, this pro-growth, highly progressive Social Security tax cut recently expired, falling victim to austerity politics.

What This Parking Garage Has to Do With 38 Studios

The parking garage in question.  Captured on Google Street View.
The parking garage in question. Captured on Google Street View.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the River Park Square Parking Garage in Spokane, WA has not been a major topic of conversation in Rhode Island.  But it should be.

You see, it was paid for by a nonprofit semipublic economic development corporation known as the Spokane Downtown Foundation.  Lacking the credit for the loan, the Spokane Downtown Foundation issued $31 million in moral obligation bonds backed up by the credit of the City of Spokane.  Then, as revenues from the parking garage came in under budget, the Downtown Foundation was forced to default.  Start to sound familiar?

Here comes the key bit:  The credit rating of the Downtown Foundation plummeted to D (ultimately winding up as a Not Rated), but the credit rating of the city’s general obligation bonds did not meet nearly so dire a fate.  Anticlimactically, Moody’s knocked the general obligation bonds down only one notch to A2.  S&P, however, took a more critical view, knocking them down to BBB.

Perhaps the most critical question swirling around the 38 Studios fiasco is what would actually happen if we defaulted.  The travails of the River Park Square Parking Garage offer a rough sketch:  The EDC’s credit rating would implode, but Rhode Island’s main general obligation bonds would see a much smaller effect.  How small an effect remains uncertain, unfortunately.

My guess is that our hit would be substantially less than Spokane’s.  Because of a legally murky agreement to back up the debt with municipal parking meter revenues, there was significant doubt about the legal ability of Spokane to default on its moral obligation bonds (a concern not applicable to the 38 Studios bonds).  In fact, the ensuing tangle of lawsuits ultimately forced the city to repay the bonds, although Spokane did receive $11.2 million from a settlement.  Moreover, the parking garage bonds represented a much larger portion of Spokane’s debt than the 38 Studios bonds represent to Rhode Island, and the parking garage scandal probably did reduce the ability of the city to repay its general obligation bonds.  Given the $20 million in legal fees the city ultimately wound up shelling out, those concerns were amply justified.  Defaulting on the 38 Studios debt, on the other hand, would likely not meaningfully damage our ability to repay our general obligation bonds.

And then there’s the fact that credit markets have not punished us for a much larger default on pension obligations–obligations that actually were legally binding.

Unfortunately, I was not able to answer the most critical question–how the downgrade affected the interest rate.  So I hope someone with more time and knowledge of bond markets than I will look into the matter more closely.

Let me be clear.  Although I do suspect that defaulting on the 38 Studios bonds would save us money in the long run, I am by no means certain.  But because of the River Park Square Parking Garage, we can constrain the bounds of speculation.

Tell the NRA: not in RI


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The campaign for common-sense gun reform in Rhode Island is in trouble.  Speaker Gordon Fox and Senate President Paiva-Weed both support the strong bills Governor Chafee introduced, but they have described them as a starting point for talks.  And it is not looking good.  State Rep. Linda Finn tells me, “Rhode Islanders favor an assault weapons ban by a margin of 64% to 27%, but we aren’t hearing from them.  We’re just hearing from the NRA.”

Here's what the anti-reform crowd looked like at the Senate Judiciary Hearing last Thursday.
Here’s what the anti-reform crowd looked like at the Senate Judiciary Hearing last Thursday.

The gun lobby is running ads and flooding state legislators with calls and emails.  If we want to keep Rhode Island from becoming yet another NRA victory, we need you to take action.  Here’s what you can do.

Send emails to your state legislators using this link:

http://www.blastroots.com/campaign/RImoms

Use this link to look up your state legislators’ phone numbers, and give them a call:

https://sos.ri.gov/vic/

And join us at the state house tomorrow (Wednesday, May 1) for the House committee hearing.  At the Senate hearing, we were outnumbered ten to one.  The hearing will start around 5:00 and go until around midnight, but we need people starting at noon, so come when you can and leave when you need to.  Our staging area will be Room 7A in the basement.

David Cicilline Signs Grayson-Takano Letter


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Thank you Congressman Cicilline for standing up against cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security!

When Barack Obama proposed cuts to Social Security in his current budget, progressives were horrified.  Fortunately, in the First District of Rhode Island, we have a congressman who opposes this dangerous unraveling of the New Deal.  David Cicilline has signed the Grayson-Takano letter, formally committing to never voting for cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security (http://act.boldprogressives.org/survey/survey_ss_grayson/#fullletter).

This is a critical move.  As American family budgets continue to be squeezed, and retirement savings continue to dwindle, Social Security is more important than ever.  We cannot afford to lose this fight.

As a member of the Budget Committee, Congressman Cicilline is in a strong position to help defend these core Democratic achievements.  But he needs allies.  Let’s hope more congressmen follow Cicilline’s lead.

In Budget Vote, Cicilline Betrays Progressives


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As I predicted on Tuesday, Congressman Cicilline voted against the Progressive Caucus’s budget on Wednesday. For a vice chair of the Progressive Caucus, this is a major break—especially after Rhode Island progressives have made it very clear they do not want Cicilline to abandon House progressives.

This is a tough vote for Rhode Island progressives to swallow.  The progressive community threw our all into getting Cicilline reelected.  We are his base.  We chose not to attack him on previous votes where he has betrayed the progressive agenda because we thought it might damage him.  David Segal, a progressive who ran against Cicilline in 2010, opted not to run in 2012.  But he refuses to stand up for progressive values.

In a statement posted to RI Future in response to my post on Tuesday, Cicilline spokesman Rich Luchette argued that “it is absurd to suggest that David is anything other than %100 committed to protecting Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits.” Cicilline did sign a letter specifically opposing such cuts in a sequestration deal, but only in a sequestration deal.  However, the concern I raised was not that he would support such cuts in a sequestration deal but that he would support them in a grand bargain deal.  The letter Cicilline signed would not bar him from supporting those cuts in a grand bargain deal.  The letter he refused to sign would.

This is not a difficult issue.  If Cicilline believes his position has been misrepresented by his actions, all he has to do is sign the Grayson-Takano letter pledging never cut Social Security, Medicaid, or Medicare.  If he continues to refuse to sign it, his position will be clear.

Similarly, if Cicilline opposes sequestration, all he has to do is cosponsor the Cancel the Sequester Act.  The mainstream Democratic plan, which Cicilline supports, replaces sequestration with more acceptable austerity that has no chance of passage.  It cedes the ideological ground that we must be doing austerity in a jobs crisis, a battle Democrats will never win.  Had Democrats supported repealing the sequester, the debate would have been between Republicans who support the sequester and Democrats who oppose it.  Instead, it is between Democrats who want a Democratic version of the sequester and Republicans who want a Republican version of the sequester.

One doesn’t have to be a very active observer of politics to know that Democrats and Republicans would not come together on a sequester plan even vaguely acceptable to liberals.  When Democrats refused to call for a repeal of the sequester, it ensured the sequester would happen.  If Cicilline persists in opposing repealing the sequester, his position will be clear:  He prioritizes deficit reduction over jobs.

On Tuesday, I predicted Cicilline would abandon the Progressive Caucus and oppose the Caucus’s budget.  Yesterday, he proved me right.  This is about as clear a sign as you could imagine that Cicilline does not stand with progressives on economic issues.  If he had felt at all conflicted, he could have, like Jim Langevin, at least chosen not to vote one way or the other.  This vote indicates that he may soon be contemplating an exit from the Caucus.  Again, if he sees this concern as unwarranted, all he has to do is pledge he will never leave the Progressive Caucus.

Let us be clear, progressives are not going to vote against Cicilline in the general election.  We are not going to vote for a conservative primary challenger.  The question is whether we will continue to pour our limited resources into a candidate who does not stand up for our values—instead of state and local candidates who do.

This is not an idle concern.  During the 2012 election, for instance, members of the Progressive Democrats knocked on more than 3,000 doors for Cicilline in East Providence.  Had we instead been canvassing for Bob DaSilva (who lost by less than 2%), Bob DaSilva almost certainly would have won.

If Cicilline would like to see his base work for him instead of on General Assembly races, he has some explaining to do.  I encourage him to begin that process by defending his vote on RI Future.

Will Cicilline Abandon Progressives On Budget?


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Many progressives worked hard to reelect David Cicilline. I spent a lot of my summer and fall knocking on doors for him instead of helping out progressives in tight General Assembly races. When everyone was piling on Cicilline a year ago, we were defending him. We took a lot of flack, but we knew that we could not let progressives lose such a heavily Democratic seat. The sad thing is, that may be happening anyway—because Cicilline is making worrying signs of an exit from the Progressive Caucus.

The first warning signs came when Cicilline refused to sign the Grayson-Takano letter pledging not to cut Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid.  That sent a shiver of fear down the neck of Rhode Island progressives who worry this is setting up for a vote in favor of a grand bargain that sells out the middle class by cutting these essential programs in the middle of a jobs crisis.

Then he refused to cosponsor the Cancel the Sequester Act. This common-sense initiative of the Congressional Progressive Caucus cancels the sequester. Does not replace it with a slightly less devastating austerity package. Just cancels it. Ends this messy debate with no damage to the economy. It is about the most common-sense progressive initiative you can think of. But Cicilline still has not signed on.

But when I called Cicilline’s office (202-225-4911) last Thursday to ask why he is not standing with the rest of the Progressive Caucus on these basic economic issues, a staffer told me something even more disturbing: Cicilline’s budget plan is not the Progressive Caucus’s budget, the Back to Work Budget. It is the standard House Democratic budget.

Budget votes are a statement of core principles. They are usually the most important vote a legislator will make on economic issues. Not supporting the Progressive Caucus budget would be about as clear a sign as you could make that Cicilline is planning on leaving the Progressive Caucus.

The Back to Work Budget is not particularly progressive. It completely capitulates on the terms of the debate with a fiscally irresponsible focus on deficit reduction instead of jobs or debt in the real economy. Unlike the Ryan budget, which is a conservative wish list, the Back to Work Budget is a compromise package that leaves out most progressive goals. It contains only very limited stimulus, no housing plan, no plan to stop climate change, no Medicare for All, and no private sector debt relief. Instead, it is a compromise designed to attract conservative Democrats. But it is still the only budget actually focused on economic growth. It should be an easy, non-controversial vote.

The Back to Work Budget is coming up for a vote tomorrow. I sincerely hope that staffer was mistaken. Rhode Island will be watching.

State of the State Analysis: No Recovery Package


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Governor Chafee’s State of the State speech, announcing his budget proposal, strikes a fine balance between solutions and inaction. Woefully inadequate as his proposals are, Governor Chafee does appear to have a reasonable grasp of the problems facing our great state.

On social issues, Chafee proposes popular, common-sense solutions like tweaks to gun laws and ending marriage discrimination, but when it comes to his core task, revitalizing the state’s economy, it is a different story. After accurately laying out the multitude of problems facing our state, the governor proposes to do nearly nothing.

Unlike Carcieri and the General Assembly, Chafee understands that we cannot simply dump more problems onto already strapped municipal budgets. Since 2007, state aid has fallen by 60%, devastating communities all around Rhode Island. To fill this $150 million hole, Chafee has recommended $20 million.

Noting that “there is simply no more important investment we can make than in our schools and the potential of our students,” the governor makes a powerful case for investing in education. But his proposal to maintain and fully fund the current school funding formula is hardly a bold investment in the future. Nor is the proposal for a $6 million increase in aid to CCRI, RIC, and URI, which will only materialize if those institutions freeze tuition and make $6 million in cuts.

Chafee correctly points out that Rhode Island’s refusal to maintain our infrastructure winds up costing us more in the long run. “We must invest in our infrastructure,” he insists. However, the $14 million the governor is proposing for maintenance at vocational schools cannot be counted as a serious commitment to infrastructure. That figure is less than a hundredth of what the American Society of Civil Engineers estimates we need spend on water infrastructure alone.

Largely contracted out to a business lobby, the “Moving the Needle” report produced by the state Senate harps on the business tax climate indices, which Republicans have invented so that there can be economic metrics red states will do well on. Chafee is right to reject these silly rankings. And this refusal to play by Republican rules allows him to see that “the property tax is the real major barrier to economic growth.”

This is strong rhetoric. But the governor’s tiny down payment on state aid to cities and towns will do little to alleviate property tax hikes.

Perhaps Chafee’s boldest proposal is to cut the special tax exemption that CVS benefits from and use the revenue to pay for a reduction in the corporate income tax from 9% to 7%. Getting CVS to pay a higher rate is probably a good thing for Rhode Island, although as a free-market liberal, I am highly susceptible to the argument that our current tax code discriminates against retailers for no good reason. If the Woonsocket-based chain agreed to a tax hike in negotiations with Chafee, then we owe them a debt of gratitude.

A cut in the corporate tax rate, however, is rather silly. If you want to reduce taxation on businesses, it would do far more good to the economy to focus on tax cuts that help startups and small businesses or remove market distortions. This is hardly a controversial principle. Rhode Island’s tax code is unusually hard on small businesses, the engine of our economy. For instance, the $500 minimum tax, which is levied even when a business has no profits, is essentially meaningless for large, successful corporations, but can impose a serious burden on small start-ups. Similarly, the network of licensing fees Rhode Island is famous for barely matter to large corporations but can be a nightmare for small ones. Another option that would be more beneficial to small businesses would be to adopt a progressive corporate income tax instead of the flat 9% rate we have now. Chafee could have taken any of these proposals to maximize the effect of his tax cut. Instead, he chose to cut corporate taxes in one of the least beneficial ways. Bolder business tax cuts, apparently, were off the table.

While Chafee clearly understands the problems facing our state—municipal budget cuts, weakened educational institutions, crumbling infrastructure, and an anti-business tax code—he proposes to do basically nothing about any of these problems. The reason is simple. He refuses to end the tax breaks for the rich that created this budget mess in the first place. Without new revenue or debt, there is no way you can fund a recovery package. These are the cold, hard facts of math.

RI – What Went Wrong: Have We Learned Lessons?


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What is so sad about the mess Rhode Island has fallen into is that it was completely avoidable.

Governor Carcieri did not have to launch a jihad against public sector employment. Nor was it necessary to hand massive tax breaks to the wealthy. Had we avoided those tax breaks, we wouldn’t have had to slash municipal aid and send property taxes through the roof. Had we not raised property taxes, we would have a stronger housing market, and had we not engaged in massive austerity, the rest of our economy would be doing better as well. If our unemployment insurance tax rate were less punitive, then fewer businesses would have gone under. None of this had to happen.

It seems that things are finally looking up for the Rhode Island economy. Unemployment is falling, despite a regional recession, and numerous other economic indicators are showing positive signs.

There remain many road blocks ahead for our economy, as we deal with the aftermath of 38 Studios, municipal budget disasters, and other legacies of the Carcieri era, so it is by no means clear that these positive trends will continue, but there is certainly more cause for optimism now than we have had for quite some time.

As Leonard Lardaro, an economist at URI, puts it, we’re “in a recovery the magnitude of which almost nobody in this state seems to fully comprehend.” But we should not take this as evidence that the economy of the Ocean State is suddenly being managed well. Rhode Island is a severely depressed economy with relatively strong fundamentals. If you don’t keep kicking it, it will recover, even if the transition is only from terrible to mediocre leadership.

Carcieri is gone, it is true. But the very conservative General Assembly was fully complicit in Carcieri’s blunders, earning them effusive praise from the Wall St. Journal. As Dan Lawlor puts it, “it is remarkable how much of his vision was enacted, sometimes excitedly, by the Democratic General Assembly and its leaders, specifically Gordon Fox and Theresa Paiva Weed.”

There is much truth to this.  Although it is hard to argue that pro-choice, pro-marriage Fox isn’t at least a moderate improvement over his predecessors, as House Majority Leader, he was a major proponent of the income tax cuts at the heart of Rhode Island’s problems.

After a bruising reelection battle, Fox made mild noises about potentially being more open to sensible tax reform, but given his past record, it is unclear whether anything will come of this.  Nominally a Democrat, Paiva Weed shares Fox’s rather extreme economic conservatism, but she does not share Fox’s more moderate social views.  Indeed, she is probably the primary obstacle to marriage equality passing in 2013.

Although Chafee is pushing for some distinctly insufficient reforms, they will probably mostly fail, and it is hard to imagine the General Assembly putting together anything remotely up to the task.

What must be done is actually quite straightforward.  We need a jobs bill and tax reform: We need to reverse Carcieri’s austerity by rehiring the teachers, firefighters, and policemen whose jobs he cut. We should also make new investments in critical areas, restoring our crumbling roads and bridges, creating bicycle infrastructure and commuter rail lines, expanding and improving URI, and building tons of medical schools to take advantage of the extreme demand for new doctors. We should begin paring back property taxes and fixing budgets by restoring aid to cities and towns and allowing them to levy local income taxes to offset property taxes.

To pay for all this, we should restore the pre-2006 income tax rates and create new brackets for the wealthy, with a top marginal rate of at least 13%. We also need to restructure the hugely regressive unemployment insurance tax as a simple and constant flat, low rate, a reform that could easily raise revenue while making the tax code much less regressive and much more business-friendly.

With the current conservatives in office, almost none of this will happen. But it is definitely worth fighting for.

RI—What Went Wrong: Competitiveness


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The devastating effect of property tax hikes and the less significant effect of a high unemployment insurance tax, discussed in previous columns, probably explain most of the portion of the unemployment gap that’s not explained by austerity. However, there is one more factor that might play a minor role in weakening our economy with respect to other states’. That factor is competitiveness. By competitiveness, I am not referring to the argument popular among conservatives that Massachusetts somehow has a more “competitive” individual income tax rate than Rhode Island. All that’s necessary to debunk that myth is to plot the tax rates:

Income tax rates in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
Income tax rates in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.*
List of states by median household income, including Washington DC. Data from the Census Bureau.

What I am referring to is actual competitiveness. Although the Ocean State GOP would have you think otherwise, Rhode Island is not the poorest state in the union. Actually, we rank a bit above the average. The issue is that we are much poorer than the other blue states that surround us, as the rankings of states by median household income show.

As a blue state with a long history of unusually conservative government, this is to be expected. It does, however, have some consequences for our economy. By being a moderately wealthy state surrounded by much more successful states, we get many of the disadvantages of affluence with few of its benefits. One way this manifests itself is the strength of our currency. Because the Northeast is a wealthy region, it has a strong dollar, but this is more of a regional trend than a state-based one. A strong currency makes it harder for a state to compete in trade, which is why we want the Chinese to let their currency strengthen. This probably results in a trade deficit for Rhode Island, but the government does not track the trade positions of individual states, so it is impossible to know for sure. At the same time, we also suffer from competition with wealthier neighboring states, which can offer both lower taxes and better government services because of their wealth, as Josh Barro points out in Forbes. Competition probably explains a small portion of our unemployment gap, but the bulk of the blame falls on massive austerity and unusually silly tax polices.

There is little we can do about these structural disadvantages, but we can definitely learn from our mistakes.  Read tomorrow’s column, the last in this series, to find out how.
(Due to an editorial error, this piece ran out of order. It should have ran on Friday.)
*Graph updated to correct for an error (an out of date Massachusetts tax rate).

RI – What Went Wrong: Unemployment Insurance Taxes


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Another singular component of Rhode Island’s tax system is unusually high unemployment insurance taxes. Unemployment insurance taxes don’t get very much attention (they are excluded from the graph of the distributional effect of taxes in the previous column, for instance), but they can have a very real effect on the economy, particularly in a time of high unemployment. The unemployment insurance tax system is hideously complex, with four different components and rates that go up when the company conducts layoffs. The result is a payroll tax that hits the working class far harder than anyone else, as this graph shows.

Unemployment insurance tax rates in Rhode Island, including the Employment Security Tax, the Job Development Fund Tax, the Temporary Disability Insurance Tax, and the Federal Unemployment Insurance Tax.

High unemployment insurance taxes can help exacerbate an economic collapse because once a business is forced to make layoffs, its tax rate can skyrocket. This tends to help push struggling businesses over the line, and Rhode Island’s high unemployment insurance tax rate pushed us over the line. In the Tax Foundation’s 2013 Business Tax Climate Index, the gold standard for biased conservative tax climate rankings, the unemployment insurance tax is the only tax category where Rhode Island ranks last.  There is relatively little evidence that a better tax climate ranking helps a state become more competitive, but there are real competitiveness issues that do matter, and they are the subject of tomorrow’s column.

RI – What Went Wrong: Property Tax Hikes


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In the previous installment, I discussed the large income tax cuts for the rich that hit Rhode Island in 2006, a major change to the economy that was followed by an early plunge into recession.  Unlike the federal government, states can’t offset income tax cuts with debt. So they have to offset them by either cutting spending or raising other taxes. Rhode Island took both approaches.

A critical mechanism for financing the income tax cuts for the rich was slashing the aid that the state government sends to the cities and towns. These severe cuts resulted in a wave of municipal budget crises that we are all too familiar with. Cities and towns closed part of the gap through severe cuts, but they also responded with drastic property tax hikes. Property taxes are notorious for being unusually bad for the economy. Even the Tax Foundation, a very conservative think tank, agrees that property taxes have a bigger effect on business location decisions than any of the other major taxes. Simply put, property tax hikes are very hard on business. The pain is not distributed evenly; property taxes hit small businesses especially hard. The problem is especially severe because the aid cuts were worst in Providence and Woonsocket, where businesses are disproportionately located, so the property tax hikes were worst in areas with the most businesses.

The other side of the economic devastation wrought by property taxes is the property tax on families, which squeezes budgets hard and reduces demand. Because the middle class is more likely to spend its money in ways that are good for the overall economy, shifting the tax budget to the middle class is a big blow to the economy. Redistributing wealth from the middle class to the rich is an especially bad idea when the vehicle is property taxes, because higher property taxes do extensive collateral damage. In the long term, property taxes create perverse incentives that lead to bad urban planning, extensive sprawl, and economic segregation of schools, but they also do serious damage to the housing market. The primary cause of the second Bush recession was the bursting of the housing bubble that inflated during most of Bush’s term in office. Like every state in the union, Rhode Island saw its housing market collapse. This was not the time to raise property tax rates sky high.

In much the same way as austerity begets more austerity by crashing the economy, property tax hikes can lock an economy into a vicious cycle, where higher property taxes depress the housing market, which in turn reduces revenue and requires higher property tax rates. States with large property tax burdens are particularly vulnerable to this feedback loop. Rhode Island, of course, is one of those states with large property tax burdens. Here’s how our tax revenue breaks down by the kind of tax:

Breakdown of Rhode Island tax revenue by type. Data from www.usgovernmentrevenue.com.

One of the consequences of our high property taxes is that our tax system is even worse than usual about taxing the 99% at a higher rate than the 1%. In Rhode Island, the bottom 20% pay a rate of 11.9%, and the top 1% pay a rate of only 5.6%. You can see how the burden breaks down in this (slightly out of date) graph from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy’s “Who Pays?” report. (For a fuller discussion of how this works, see Ted Nesi’s excellent piece in Providence Business News.)

Tax distribution in Rhode Island broken down by the Institute for Taxation and Economic Policy. This study was done on 2007 rates but updated for changes to the tax code up to 2009.

 


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