On Citizens United anniversary, candidates should come to the table


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Four years ago today the U.S. Supreme Court released its decision in the case Citizens United v. FEC.  In the four years that have followed we’ve seen an explosion in outside money in our elections at both the local, state, and national levels.  That money is used to fund advertisements that are overwhelmingly negative and increasingly mysterious in their origins.

There are two ways actual citizens can unite in reaction.  One is to amend the Constitution to ensure that money does not equal speech and corporations are not people.  Another, much easier way, is to pressure candidates into signing a People’s Pledge.  We’re on the cusp of that in the Democratic primary for Governor here in Rhode Island.

Back on October 23rd Mayor Angel Taveras signed a version of the People’s Pledge that would restrict outside spending by committing candidates to give to charity 50% of the value of any outside spending that occurs on their behalf.  This morning Treasurer Gina Raimondo tweeted her support for the idea.

We’re 2/3rds the way there folks.  Now two things need to happen for us to make it all the way.  First, we need to have Clay Pell join in the commitment.  Second, the candidates need to sit around the table and come to agreement.  Today we’re offering this lovely conference table here at the Common Cause Rhode Island office for them to use.

photo

Do your part by reaching out to the candidates and encouraging them to come to the table.

The new Raimondomania


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Gina Raimondo
General Treasurer Gina Raimondo (D)

On Monday, General Treasurer Gina Raimondo kicked off her campaign to be the Democratic nominee for governor by announcing a broad platform. Among them, rebuilding public school buildings, an assault weapons ban along with tougher gun control, college loan forgiveness, raising the minimum wage and indexing it with cost-of-living-adjustments, providing universal pre-K, allowing undocumented workers access to drivers’ licenses, utilizing social impact bonds to fight poverty and social problems, and holding Wall St. accountable.

Had it been announced by any other candidate it would’ve been hailed as the most progressive platform laid out by a RI gubernatorial candidate in a generation.

Even the campaign of Mayor Angel Taveras, who is running for governor in the same primary, didn’t fault it. When asked by The Providence Journal if they disagreed with a single point, Taveras’ campaign manager replied, “no.”

But progressives didn’t hail it as a high-watermark in years of their organizing and work. As architect of the 2011 pension cuts that wreaked havoc on public sector employees in the midst of Rhode Island’s stalled “recovery” from the recession, the general treasurer still has light-years to go to win back the unanimous left-wing support she enjoyed when she waltzed to victory in 2010. Since ushering pension cuts through the General Assembly, the treasurer has remained remarkably out of sight with the exception of a few financial literacy courses and support for payday lending reform. The effective use of the bully pulpit that she displayed in 2011 was noticeably lacking in 2012 and 2013. Her most high-profile media appearances have been to defend pension cuts or argue for the repayment of the moral obligation bonds secured for the 38 Studios fiasco (another of the many dark clouds that hang over Rhode Island politics).

The 2011 pension cuts have been characterized by national critics such as Ted Siedle and Matt Taibbi as a Wall St. cash-grab, and so local progressives seized upon the under-the-radar concept of social impact bonds (SIBs) to tie the treasurer more closely to Wall St. Longtime fiscal policy observer Tom Sgouros asked in his evaluation of the concept whether Raimondo intended “to promote the public good, or sell it?”

Social impact bonds are easy to tar and feather. First, they contain the word “bond” and Rhode Islanders have seen a string of negative implications of what happens when bondholders come looking for money. The reality is that the treasurer used language out of step with the U.S. federal government. The Feds have used the more accurate “pay-for-success contract” to describe the concept. If the bond doesn’t produce success, there’s no payment from the government; which is why this is attractive to governments. The risk falls on the private investor, rather than the public purse. And unlike the 38 studios bonds, if a SIB fails to register satisfactory results, investors don’t get their money back. They lose it.

Second, their pedigree includes Goldman Sachs. Yes, the investment bank was a major backer of an initiative by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg to use the bonds to reduce recidivism among 16-18 year olds leaving Rikers Island. But the concept was initially begun at HMP Peterborough in the U.K. There the backing was from a collection of philanthropies rather than an investment bank. Other U.S. attempts have used a blend of charity and private funding. The left-leaning Roosevelt Institute suggested that SIBs “have the potential to be an important tool in the poverty-fighting arsenal.” Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government even has a guide for state and local governments on how to manage SIBs.

Third, the concept has been so low-key in Rhode Island that even our paper of record, The Providence Journal, suggested that Raimondo “had introduced a new concept to Rhode Island’s political lexicon.” In reality, the idea had been consigned to business reporting until Raimondo mentioned it Monday. Rhode Island’s very own Social Enterprise Ecosystem Economic Development (SEEED) has been exploring SIBs already (and bringing them to the attention of both Raimondo and Governor Lincoln Chafee). Master’s students at Brown’s Taubman Center also researched the concept focusing on recidividism.

So it’s neither a bond (at least not as we’ve become accustomed to them in Rhode Island), nor created by Goldman Sachs, nor a concept unique to the treasurer and her venture capital background. We may be entering a new Raimondomania. Whatever comes out of the treasurer’s mouth is instantly controversial. You can count on the media to cover it, and you can count on progressives to denounce it if they’re not familiar with it; usually with the words “Wall Street” to boot.

Yes, the treasurer is deserving of tough criticism. She’s repeatedly made it clear that our contract with the workers who built our state is less important than our contracts with bondholders who were already insured against losses. She made a previously backwater office a major part of the political landscape, achieved a stunning legislative success, and then squandered the next two years by not vociferously pushing the progressive agenda she was elected on. All of the treasurer’s platform ideas could’ve been pushed for and passed in the General Assembly throughout her current term. She rarely lent her weight to these causes. And there’s no EngageRI to provide muscle to rebuild public school buildings or offer college-loan forgiveness.

But the progressive response to Raimondo’s progressive platform is typical of the left-wing infighting that all too often prevents success. Instead of achieving the 99% of things they agree upon, the left will slaughter one another over the remaining 1%, stymieing progress and allowing conservatives to win policy changes they needn’t have.

Social impact bonds are a prime example of this. Yes, the optimal outcome would be for the state to invest in the solutions and save itself the maximum amount of money possible, to be reinvested elsewhere. However, our state legislators have proven unwilling to do the heavy lifting themselves, preferring instead to look towards business for solutions. Social impact bonds aren’t ideal, but they’re better than doing nothing. If they fail to work, they cost the state nothing. Most importantly, they achieve the progressive goal of helping people immediately rather than in some fantastical future when progressives control both chambers of the General Assembly and the governor’s office and are able to pass their agenda without resistance. Perhaps social impact bonds will be the kick that makes our legislators realize they could just save all this money instead of passing a share of the savings on to private investors.

There is a very real possibility that Raimondo will win the primary and then go on to being the first elected Democratic governor since Bruce Sundlun. Should that come to pass, progressives will have a duty to fight Raimondo if and when her agenda damages the economic health of our state and hurts our people. But when a Governor Raimondo’s agenda aligns neatly with the progressive agenda, then it’s time to applaud and support it. If progressives can’t recognize that even the most controversial part of Raimondo’s platform moves Rhode Island closer to alleviating societal ills then how can they lay claim to being the champions of the downtrodden and dispossessed?

Social impact bonds: ‘do they promote public good, or sell it?’


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raimondo fist pumpGina Raimondo “kicked off” her campaign for Governor yesterday, and wouldn’t you know it, but the centerpiece of her policy proposals will be a new invention of Goldman Sachs, the “social impact” bond.

What, you might ask, is a social impact bond?  The idea is that some great source of capital like, oh, I don’t know, Goldman Sachs, lends some community millions of dollars to improve early-childhood education. Perhaps they build a new pre-K facility, or even use the money to pay some teacher salaries. A wealth of evidence shows that this kind of investment pays a return of sorts because the kids who enjoy this better education are less likely to become teen parents or teen lawbreakers. It stands to reason, therefore, that the community so enriched by this investment can repay the bond by sending to Goldman Sachs the money that would have been spent on the welfare or jail that those teens didn’t need. How’s that for a win-win?

From the perspective of the public budget, you’re really no further ahead, of course, since the money you were going to spend on jails is spent on paying Goldman instead, but at least you have this shiny new school, and fewer criminals, too.

Of course if your pre-K students grow up to be peaceable, responsible, taxpaying, and generally lovely adults — who happen to live somewhere else — well, you can’t make an omelette without cracking a piggy bank, right?

Snark aside, what do we really have here?  Is it a good idea or not? Is this a way for communities to access funds for desperately needed investments, or is it a new way for the financiers who burned down our economy just a few years ago to rape the public funds — again?  Bear in mind, please, that there is a substantial risk here. Research about the future costs of jail and welfare are estimates, made to illustrate various cost/benefit analyses. They are not carefully calibrated prices. The weight of evidence says there will be savings, and the side benefit is happy people and less crime. To me, that’s enough to argue for investment, but the happy people and less crime parts of the benefit aren’t going to help pay off a loan.

It might be worth asking at this point, why those communities can’t afford to invest in these improvements the evidence says will pay off. Oh, right, it’s all the tax breaks of the past decades. Did you know that business taxes used to be the third most important source of revenue to the state of Rhode Island?  Now they are fifth, behind the lottery and all the fees collected by various departments. Did you know that the richest Rhode Islanders paid over three times the income tax of the average taxpayer in 1996, and in 2011, a bit more than twice?  Over the past decades, our state and nation have cut taxes repeatedly in a vain and misguided attempt to stimulate the economy and things have only gotten worse for everyone except those whose taxes were cut.

So now that we can’t afford to make these investments in education and infrastructure (not to mention the human capital our business community claims they want access to but won’t pay for) here’s a new plan: take money from the rich, not as taxes, but as loans, and in return pay them the benefits that used to be thought of as belonging to everyone. And if the benefits don’t actually pan out, do you imagine that the financiers will be at risk?

It’s easy to imagine a community in dire straits, seeking to salvage the futures of some of its residents, with such a desperate and risky scheme. Business owners on Federal Hill used to find themselves wondering in the same way if they should ask the mob for help. But to imagine — no, to actually see and hear — a gubernatorial candidate suggest that this is a good idea on its own merits is appalling. The idea is a disgrace, a wholesale sellout of the very concept of the public good.

So what do we learn here?  First, that the creativity of people paid millions of dollars to think of new ideas to make more money is nearly boundless. Over the past decades, we offered a bargain: tax cuts for rich people in exchange for a better economy. But they used the money to buy political power and used it to extract still more money from the rest of us. They are already on the way to owning the world. Here is yet one more way for the fabulously wealthy to solidify their control of our politics and our world.

The other thing we learn?  That clearly Gina Raimondo is not at all worried by the idea that she might be perceived as too closely tied to the wolves of Wall Street. The question she should answer: does she want to promote the public good, or sell it?

Math error in Taveras’s pre-K plan


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Providence Mayor Angel Taveras delivers the annual State of the City address.
Providence Mayor Angel Taveras delivers the annual State of the City address.

I believe I have discovered a math error in Angel Taveras’s pre-kindergarten plan.  Instead of $24.6 million, the total annual cost should actually be $55.2 million.

The “Ready Rhode Island” plan is only designed to provide one year of preschool, right before kindergarten, and the math error centers around confusing the figures for all preschoolers with the figures for just four-year-olds.  Here are the key passages:

About 10,800 students are enrolled in public first grade, and we can expect a similar number of enrollees in Pre-K. Subtracting the number of students enrolled in Head Start and Preschool Special Education implies that approximately 5,200 children can benefit from state sponsored pre- kindergarten.

The plan then continues:

We will start by creating slots for 2,650 children to enroll in a high-quality, full-day pre-kindergarten program. Accounting for the percentage of Rhode Island four-year-olds already served by another public program, Rhode Island would achieve a 76% pre-kindergarten enrollment rate, among the highest in the nation.

Unfortunately, the critical assumption here–that public preschool programs cover slightly more than half of Rhode Island’s four-year-olds–is not correct.  However, from the links, it is clear what mistake Taveras’s policy team made.  They subtracted the total number of preschoolers, ages zero through four, enrolled in Head Start (2,966), Preschool Special Ed (2,565), and the Rhode Island Prekindergarten Program (108) from the expected number of four-year-olds (10,800).  Essentially, they confused figures for four-year-olds with figures for all preschoolers.If you just look at four-year-olds, only 21% are covered by a public program, leaving 5,940 new pre-kindergarten slots needed to meet Taveras’s goal of 76% coverage.  Using the plan’s assumed annual per child cost of $9,300, correcting the numbers raises the real annual cost to $55.2 million, up from the original $24.6 million.

Universal preschool for four-year-olds is a fantastic idea that would meaningfully improve the lives of thousands of Rhode Island families.  Unfortunately, Angel Taveras’s “Ready Rhode Island” plan does not present a realistic proposal for achieving that goal. Because of a math error, it understates the cost by more than a factor of two.

It is disappointing that this admirable idea was presented to Rhode Island in the form of a proposal that was not yet ready for prime time.  Hopefully, the Taveras campaign will release a new proposal that corrects the math error and includes a viable revenue stream to pay for the true cost.

I spoke with Taveras’s team about this yesterday morning, but as of press time, they have yet to get back to me with their response.

Until the job Is done


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kennedy in newport

Why does a politician continually raise his sights and leave a job that represented complete satisfaction at one time for a higher position?

Part of the reason lies in the normal desire to move ahead, perhaps the more important part lies in the recognition that a greater opportunity to determine the direction in which the nation and world will go lies in higher office. I’ve come to understand that the presidency is the ultimate source of action.

-John F. Kennedy

There are no small parts, only small actors.

-Proverb

I’ve seen it suggested recently that Angel Taveras shouldn’t leave as Providence mayor to run for governor. The common refrain is some variant on “the job isn’t finished yet.” It’s a similar criticism to that lobbed at U.S. Rep. David Cicilline; that he “cut and ran” from Providence just as the city entered a budget crisis (I believe that Cicilline was the last mayor who wasn’t term-limited and could’ve served indefinitely).

It’s a question that I’ve scoffed at. After all, why would eight years matter more than four years? If you believe someone shouldn’t leave office until every problem a government faces is solved, why not go the old Roman method: appoint a dictator until the crisis is over. See how many dictators for life we end up with.

But it wasn’t until I was watching Part 2 of PBS’ documentary on JFK that an answer appeared. About 13 minutes in, the JFK quote above was played from a dictaphone. And gave me reason to reflect on that question. Why seek a higher office when you’re already good at what you do?

Part of the criticism leveled at the Mayor of Providence is that the citizens of Providence have been blessed with mayors they’ve been pretty happy with. Each time in recent years when the mayor leaves, they’ve been faced with a plethora of choices that are all sort of unknown or not satisfactory to the diverse interests that reside in the state’s capital city. If the polls can be believed, Angel Taveras is perhaps the most popular politician in the state. It’s little wonder that Providence’s citizens would want such a figure to remain aboard.

But why should he? Even if he remained for another four years, by the time he left, Providence would still have problems. Any community, no matter how well managed, is going to have issues crop up. We are, after all, imperfect human beings. The terms of office aren’t organized around issues, they’re organized around arbitrary numbers of years. Every politician can’t all be President James Polk, who came into office with a few goals and refused to run for a second term when he accomplished all of them in his first four years.

So with the opening in the governor’s office, it’s fine for a politician like Taveras to seek a greater source of action. Why does a legislator seek to be in leadership? Why do advocates seek to take political office in the first place. If you’re driven by a mission, whether that be a cause or your own ego (or more likely, a heady mixture of both), why not?

But we as voters might think about taking into account the Peter Principle: “people rise to the level of their incompetence.” Which is why I’ve included the second quote, a famous proverb, above. It’s a rare politician who decides to look downward. Off the top of my head, I can think only of John Quincy Adams who took up a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives after his presidency, and Jerry Brown of California who served at Mayor of Oakland between his two times as Governor of California.

We might pause to ask ourselves why this is. Smaller roles may be more mundane, and less imbued with the power to act, but they’re important nonetheless. We forget how much power a local government has to shape our outlook, our options, and our lives.

Taveras still popular outside of the chattering class


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The State House in late November. (Photo by Bob Plain)

Influential progressives and others from the chattering class may be turning away from Providence Mayor Angel Taveras, but their suspicions haven’t seemed to seep into the minds of average Rhode Islanders yet.

After a rough first few weeks running for governor, Taveras still seems to be the most popular candidate, according to a new Fleming Associate poll paid for by the Providence Journal and WPRI.

But while the poll shows a plurality of people believe Taveras is best equipped to fix the economy and he enjoys the highest favorability ratings of the five assumed candidates, the most telling indicator for the left may be that 60 percent don’t yet know enough about Clay Pell. In the entire poll, the only thing respondents agreed on more was that they don’t yet know Ken Block.

Here’s the Providence Journal story on the poll and here’s the WPRI version. Maybe the most fascinating thing about this poll is how the two rival news agencies handle the exact same data?

But please comment below and let us know what you think is the most interesting thing about the latest look into what regular Rhode Islanders think of the field and some of the issues.

Progressive dissatisfaction and the Democratic primary


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Clay, Angel or Gina: who will be the best for the progressive movement in RI?
Clay, Angel or Gina: who will be the best for the progressive movement in RI?

In the last few years the General Assembly has passed legislation that slashed pensions, cut taxes on the wealthiest Rhode Islanders, recklessly combined the State’s boards of education, and instituted a discriminatory and unnecessary Voter ID law. And, of course, all while under the auspices of the Democratic Party.

It’s no secret then, that progressives are dissatisfied with the status quo of Rhode Island. There have been victories; notably marriage equality. But marriage equality only arrived after a compromise of civil unions riled up enough people that there was a large-scale campaign to gain true equality before the law. Full progressive change in Rhode Island happens when there is a confluence of outrage and money.

What has tided progressives over is a series of compromise: the most progressive change possible, the most progressive candidate possible. U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, U.S. Rep. David Cicilline, and Gov. Lincoln Chafee are all beneficiaries of this. While some of them have not been the most progressive candidate in their races, they have been the most progressive candidate possible.

But recent events in New York City and Boston have empowered progressives across the country, and Rhode Island progressives especially have taken note (sandwiched, as they are, between those two regional poles). Candidates with explicitly progressive campaigns have won mayoral races in those cities in off-election years. The New York City example of Bill de Blasio is especially hopeful. NYC has a population of somewhere around 7 times larger than the entirety of Rhode Island, which despite a Democratic majority has been ruled by non-Democrats since 1994, the last full year in which there was a Democratic governor in Rhode Island.

If it can happen in New York and Boston, then it can happen here, the reasoning goes. As Rhode Island progressives eye the governor’s race, they may start drawing parallels with New York City. This may explain the hoopla over Clay Pell, the untested scion of Rhode Island’s greatest political legacy.

There are a few factors to consider. First, progressives may believe they are the Democratic Party, but that’s ultimately false. Many of Rhode Island’s Democrats are more accurately described as “Christian democrats” generally socially conservative but supportive of social justice and welfare. These are the elder type of Democrats, part of the party before the progressives split from the Republicans. The reality is that Rhode Island’s Democratic Party incorporates three general sections; the progressives, the Christian democrats, and the neoliberals. There are also some genuine conservatives.

However, of these three wings, the progressives are by far the most politically dangerous and important. Time and time again they’ve proven they can break or make Democratic candidates. Therefore, it’s not surprising to see all Democratic candidates in the gubernatorial primary proclaim themselves progressives.

Progressives have a pastime of DINO-hunting, which generally means weeding out the Christian democrats or neoliberals. But as the gubernatorial race approaches, they may find themselves hunting progressives-in-name-only instead. I doubt I’m wrong in thinking that progressives believe that if the first elected Democratic governor is coming in 2014 they’ll allow that governor to be anything short of a true-blue progressive.

Providence Mayor Angel Taveras is especially vulnerable to the whims of progressive fervor. He’s managed to position himself somewhere between the neoliberal position and the progressive position. Meanwhile, General Treasurer Gina Raimondo has been firmly defined as part of the neoliberals; the “Wall St. Democrats.” But that line-walking is not playing as well as it should. On a recent appearance on WPRI’s Newsmakers, when pressed by Ted Nesi, Taveras was unable to draw a distinction between himself and Raimondo in terms of actual policy, suggesting that it’ll come out in the campaign.

On one hand, that’s correct; and politically it’s unnecessary to draw a distinction this early when Rhode Islanders won’t be paying attention for another year or so. But on the other, those contrasts should be clear already, especially as activists begin examining the candidates closely and building enthusiasm for campaign season.

Taveras’ vulnerability is clear in Clay Pell, as ill-defined a candidate as ever there was. We know virtually nothing about him beyond the name, a brief biographical sketch, and that his wife is Olympian Michelle Kwan. Yet Pell is bending progressives towards his center of gravity, and that should be worrying this early. His grandfather was also a relative unknown who defeated two former Governors for his U.S. Senate seat.

Despite their strengths, one shouldn’t think of the progressives as a wholly deciding factor though. For one thing, the movement is, like most things in Rhode Island, fractious and full of personalities. With the disbanding of Ocean State Action, the main meeting table and organizing presence for progressive groups has been removed. For another, what gets defined as truly “progressive” is open to debate. And finally, while the gubernatorial race will gain the most attention, the real power lies in the General Assembly, where progressives will have to focus on electing more friendly candidates as well as protecting those they already have.

2014 will be a serious test for progressives in Rhode Island. Can they elect a governor who represents their values? Can they take a controlling majority in the Assembly? And should they manage that, will they be able to produce results and right Rhode Island after years of neoliberal failure?

Clay Pell garners more progressive support


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Photo from People.com
Photo from People.com

In yet another sign that Angel Taveras isn’t guaranteed to garner the progressive vote in his bid for governor, Sam Bell of the RI Progressive Democrats said he and his organization are considering endorsing Clay Pell instead.

Pell, the ProJo reported yesterday, met with the group of left-leaning, politically-active progressive Democrats last week.

“I was very impressed,” Bell told me last night, saying the 31-year-old political novice gave the group a firm commitment to work towards greater reproductive freedom for women but didn’t offer pointed policy positions on the economy or education.

Bell was an early and ardent supporter of Taveras, but said he is reconsidering that support now that the electoral choices are coming into focus. He said he was concerned about Taveras aligning himself with conservative Democrats like Cumberland Mayor Dan McKee and Sen. Maryellen Goodwin, a close ally of Senate President Teresa Paiva Weed. He also cited Taveras’ support for charter schools as a reason to question the Providence mayor’s progressive credentials.

“The race has been changing rapidly,” Bell said.

Pell is expected to tack to the left of Taveras and Raimondo on education and tax reform and has received early support from the teachers’ unions who have every reason to suspect that neither more well-known likely Dems will have their best interests in mind: Raimondo slashed their pensions and Taveras closed schools, laid off teachers and supported Achievement First.

Divide between Taveras, Raimondo: how they play the game


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raimondo taverasI agree with Sam Howard who suggests there isn’t a giant gap in the policy priorites of Angel Taveras and Gina Raimondo, but I don’t think that means there would be many other similarities in how each would governor Rhode Island.

On WPRI Newsmakers Sunday, Ted Nesi asked Taveras about a post Howard wrote on this blog, specifically: “I don’t see much, policy-wise, that differentiates the two candidates. I think Gov. Raimondo will make policy choices that a Gov. Taveras would also make, and vice versa.”

Taveras dove into his well-versed “Head Start to Harvard” campaign narrative and Nesi responded: “But I think that’s Howard’s point, you will have different biographies but then once you take office you both will govern in pretty similar center-left Democratic fashion.”

I don’t think they would govern in similar styles and I haven’t seen tons of evidence that Raimondo will govern in a center-left Democratic fashion. Or, at least, that’s certainly not how she accomplished her signature political victory.

Here’s how Bob Walsh, executive director of NEARI, parsed the difference in their approaches to cutting public sector pensions to WPRI in December of 2012 (watch the whole episode to see what the political landscape looked like just 11 short months ago!).

For me, and probably for many voters, policy differences aren’t the biggest factor in deciding for whom we pull the lever. It’s how you play the game.

Taveras’s record on unemployment


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On a December 2012 episode of Newsmakers, Providence Mayor Angel Taveras had this to say in defense of Providence’s high unemployment rate: “Our rate is 12%, and when I started, it was 13.7%.”  Given the economic devastation that has befallen our capital city under Taveras’s leadership, these numbers are likely to play a major role in the upcoming gubernatorial campaign between Taveras, Raimondo, and Pell.

So it’s important to understand what’s so deceptive about that 13.7% figure.  It all has to do with seasonal adjustments.  Taveras took office in January, when there’s typically a surge in unemployment as workers get laid off at the end of the calendar year.  That 12% figure was from October, when unemployment stays low as seasonal workers are hired for the holiday season.

The state and federal unemployment rate figures you usually see have had a seasonal adjustment applied to them by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although there is no Providence-specific seasonal adjustment, if you apply the Rhode Island adjustment, the unemployment rate in January of 2011 was really 12.8%, and in October of 2012, it was really 12.5%.  Not much improvement.

Ultimately, I think the best way to assess Taveras’s unemployment record is by comparing it to Rhode Island’s.  I have plotted them together, indexing to 100 in January 2011 when Taveras took over.

Providence Unemployment Rate

The beginning of Taveras’s tenure was marked by a massive surge in the unemployment rate in the spring.  In the fall it fell, nearly matching the RI rate.  Next spring it surged far above the RI again, and next fall it fell again.  Now it’s once again rising above the RI rate.  This pattern of surging unemployment in the late spring is the classic signature of massive fiscal austerity, where public sector layoffs accelerate as the end of the fiscal year approaches.  In a normal economy, the peak from private sector layoffs in January will be much bigger than the public sector layoffs peak around June.  In the austerity-laden Rhode Island economy, those peaks are nearly the same size.  But in Providence, the public sector layoffs peak completely swamps the January one.  That’s the sign of truly extreme austerity.

The tough truth for progressives is that Taveras has been one of Rhode Island’s biggest austerity zealots.  He has closed schools and pools with disturbing fervor, while hiking property taxes to mind-bogglingly insane heights.

There’s no denying the mess Providence faces.  If Taveras had really wanted to fix Providence, he probably would have had to push for the same boring solution that other blue state cities have taken to get themselves out of similar messes–a municipal income tax, which would largely replace the property tax.

You can make a credible argument that the right-wing General Assembly would have blocked an income tax in their bid to keep property taxes high and protect Rhode Island’s regressive tax system.  But Taveras never even tried.  Instead, he just cut jobs and raised taxes on the middle class.  Providence has paid the price in unemployment.  Since Taveras took office, the capital city’s economy has systematically lagged Rhode Island’s.

Thank you Ken Block!


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Ken Block

Ken BlockI don’t agree with Ken Block on very much.  But I am here to thank him–for running for governor as a Republican.  What has always bothered me about Block is that he used his “Moderate Party” label to portray his Republican views as somehow moderate.

But then he became the leader of the conservative group RI Taxpayers, which takes more unabashedly right-wing positions like denying rights to immigrants denied documents.  And now he has come out as a Republican.

The biggest problem Rhode Island liberals have always had is that Republicans scramble ordinary politics by running for the General Assembly as Democrats.  As Ann Clanton famously put it when she was Executive Director if the Rhode Island Republican Party, “We have a lot of Democrats who we know are Republican but run as a Democrat–basically so they can win.”

Block could have walked this well-tread path, a path that so many talented Rhode Island conservatives have taken.  It is the path that gave us a House Speaker and Senate President who have each taken thousands of dollars from the NRA, passed a voter ID law, and slashed taxes for the rich more aggressively than nearly any other state.

But Block has chosen a different route.  He has chosen to be honest with the voters about his political beliefs.  I really respect him for it. I wish more conservatives would follow his lead.

Firefighters come out early for Taveras


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firefighters unionPaul Reed, president of the Rhode Island State Association of Firefighters, said he can’t remember any candidate for governor getting such an early and influential endorsement. But his members saw a stark difference in the way Angel Taveras negotiated pension cuts with Providence fire fighters than how Gina Raimondo approached a similar task at the state level.

“I think he would have negotiated with us,” Reed responded when I asked him if he might be endorsing someone else if Taveras was the general treasurer rather than mayor of Providence. “I never had one meeting with her,” he said of Gina Raimondo, whom he assumes will run against Taveras.

But there’s also Clay Pell, I mentioned.

“He has no track record in municipal government,” Reed countered. “Neither does Treasurer Raimondo. Mayor Taveras is really the most experienced candidate among the Democrats.”

What will be the big issues in 2014 governor’s race?


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raimondo taverasIt’s all well and good to know who the characters in the 2014 campaign for governor are, but we still need to know the major themes before we can know what the plot might look like.

Here’s a list of some of the public policies I hope get a good vetting during the next 12 months.

  • Wall Street vs. Main Street: Hedge funds, the real estate bubble, municipal bankruptcies and retirement investments … they all speak to what role high finance should play in economic development. Good, bad or indifferent – and I think it is a very good thing – because someone from Head Start and someone from venture capital are running against each other in a Democratic primary, RI will get to see this popular talking point play out in the form of a political campaign.
  • Tests vs. teachers: High stakes tests will and should be a part of this conversation, but the bigger issue is the achievement gap between affluent suburbs and impoverished urban areas. If NECAP scores demonstrate anything, they show that rich kids are getting a decent public education and poor kids, by and large, are not.
  • Cuts vs. expenditures: Conservatives will claim we need the lowest tax rates in the region to improve our economy while it remains to be seen if progressives will campaign on making the rich and powerful pay their fair share. Note that these goals aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive of each other. RI could, for example, the lower the small business tax rate and eliminate corporate tax expenditures (read: giveaways).  And here’s hoping Clay Pell runs on a “tax me” platform!
  • Legal vs. criminal: There are a host of issues before the General Assembly that will likely spill over into the governor’s campaign because of their national implications – think voter ID and pot prohibition. Payday loans will be a particularly interesting one, as both Angel Taveras and Gina Raimondo have worked together on this issue.

What am I forgetting? Let us know in the comments what issues matter most to you this campaign season…

Block eliminates own relevance, Moderate Party in one fell swoop


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Ken Block

Ken BlockBreak out the dirges, Ken Block put the nails in his own political coffin with the announcement he would become a Republican and run in that party’s primary for governor.

Block has been saying for months that he would only seek the office of governor if he saw a clear path to victory. That path for victory did not lie in the political party he’d spent the last half-decade building and advocating for. This does two things. First, for everyone who ever accused Block of being a Republican in sheep’s clothing, it confirms that their suspicions were reality. Second, it makes it appear that Block is less dedicated to his causes and more dedicated to himself. Switching affiliations from Moderate to Republican doesn’t further the causes Block has championed. It only furthers his own career.

Republicans should no doubt be both happy and annoyed about this latest shapeshifter in Rhode Island’s political landscape. They should be happy because it removes Block as their personal gadfly; GOP partisans have long suggested Block’s candidacy is what prevented a Gov. John Robitaille from being inaugurated in 2011. Now, come September 2014, Block will either be their standard-bearer or defeated. The smart money is on the latter.

But therein lies the problem. Until now, it seemed as though Cranston Mayor Allan Fung was going to have a easy waltz to the nomination, leaving him free to beat up on the Democratic candidates. Now he has a contested nomination. Resources that otherwise could’ve gone toward tamping down the Democratic nominee’s inherent advantage are now going to have to go to fending off Block’s challenge.

For the Moderate Party, this appears to be its death knell. It never existed much outside the persona of Ken Block. This is exactly what I wrote about in March of last year; that the Moderate Party has an issue of a lack of identity. Block has been very successful at garnering media attention. But that attention has never translated into much support for the Moderate Party. It’s not even clear if there are other Moderates beyond Block. It seems likely the Moderate Party will end its existence as a second most successful third party in modern Rhode Island politics; right behind the Cool Moose Party.

Whether Block will become the new Robert Healey is anyone’s guess.

Both party primaries for governor come into focus


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Gina Raimondo, Linc Chafee and Allan Fung at the unveiling of the Truth in Numbers report.
Gina Raimondo, Linc Chafee and Allan Fung at the unveiling of the “Truth in Numbers” report.

The calendar may still say 2013, but the 2014 election year kicked into high gear this weekend. Providence Mayor Angel Taveras said he will announce his candidacy today at 10 am at Meeting Street School in Providence; General Treasurer Gina Raimondo told WPRI Newsmakers if she does run for governor, she will do so as a Democrat; and “moderate” Ken Block finally admitted he’s really a Republican.

Progressives have reason to celebrate all three announcements.

Angel Taveras is the most obvious, as many local liberals are hoping he becomes the first Democrat elected governor since Bruce Sundlun was 18 years ago. He’s won praise for winning concessions from a wide swath of special interests and more recently he’s been panned for not cow-towing to neighborhood interests (and astroturfing Republicans) who want their public sector pool re-opened. More than anything, I think, progressives hope Angel can usher in a new era of working across the aisle without giving in to influential and often discreet out-of-town corporate forces.

To that end, with Raimondo almost certainly commanding the most out-of-state super PAC support in 2014, the left will be lucky if it has to face those influential and often-discreet corporate forces in a primary rather than the general election. Perhaps. At least there will be something refreshing about seeing the Citizens United approach to campaigning square off with real grassroots, boots-on-the-ground organizers.

Raimondo probably has the best shot of winning a general election, but because she has a wider appeal among all Rhode Island voters than she does among Democrats. But since she will need party support if she ever wants to run for national office, she’ll remain a Democrat.

While Raimondo’s career aspirations keep her in one mainstream political party, Ken Block’s has him joining the other. Now, instead of siphoning off votes from Republican Allan Fung in a general election, he’ll compete against him for the nomination. That, too, will likely be a bruising primary – if for no other reason than both Fung and Block are hot-headed and argumentative politicians. I think Fung will prove victorious and the more moderate of the two. More importantly, a contested GOP primary will be an interesting look at the right wing in Rhode Island.

Then there is Clay Pell, the grandson of former Senator Claiborne Pell who is flirting with the idea of making his foray into politics by injecting himself into an already divisive Democratic field. His family fortune and connections make him an instant contender, and he sent shivers down the spine of some Taveras supporters when he showed up at an NEARI event last week. While political operatives might not like the prospect of a three-way primary, political philosophers can ask for a lot worse than to get to see a Latino from South Providence take on a Wall Street Democrat and a registered member of the 1 percent.

Angel is in!


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Providence Mayor Angel Taveras makes it official on Monday as the Providence Journal reports he’ll announce he’s running for governor next week. WPRI also reported the news last night.

Taveras, the “Head Start to Harvard” first Latino mayor of Providence is a champion of progressive values and local liberals are inspired by his candidacy in the same way we were with Barack Obama in 2008. A key difference is Taveras has executive political experience as mayor of the Capital City. He averted a financial crisis in Providence by negotiating compromises with organized labor and local tax-exempt nonprofits.

Taveras will likely square off against General Treasurer Gina Raimondo, who has come under fire lately for cutting public sector pensions and then reinvesting those savings in volatile alternative investments with high fees for money managers. Pundits anticipate a bruising primary, with Taveras receiving grassroots support from local labor unions and other Providence political activists while Raimondo will benefit from anonymous super PAC donations from wealthy Wall Street special interests.

Yesterday, Taveras personally asked Raimondo if she would sign a People’s Pledge and disavow anonymous out-of-state donations. Her campaign has yet to respond to the overture though it did distance itself from the idea on Wednesday.

Clay Pell is also considering running for governor as a Democrat. The wealthy grandson of Senator Claiborne Pell, it’s unclear how his candidacy could affect the Taveras-Raimondo race.

taveras btw

 

 

The making of a Wall Street Democrat


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hedge fund timelineRaimondomania has turned into Raimondomageddon.

The quarterback of pension politics was revered by the right in 2012, winning praise from the Manhattan Institute, ALEC and the Wall Street Journal among others. But 2013 has been a political lynching from the left – with Ted Siedle, Matt Taibbi, David Sirota and more all calling her signature accomplishment a wealth transfer to Wall Street.

To help keep track of all the out-of-town media attention, I made this timeline. It’s still a work in progress, so let me know if I’ve omitted any in the comments below and I’ll update as warranted. The tool on the right controls the view of the timeline.

People’s Pledge: Let’s give it a try

KerryWeldIn 1996 incumbent John Kerry and Governor William Weld were headed toward an epic showdown for the U.S. Senate in Massachusetts. Closely matched as candidates, they knew spending in their upcoming race could break records. In a novel twist the candidates themselves sat down and negotiated an agreement to limit the total amount that could be spent by the campaigns (including from their personal fortunes), their respective parties, and outside groups. They also agreed to a series of televised debates throughout the state. Although the spending caps broke down in the final days, the race was a watershed moment for campaign finance.

Fast-forward to 2012 and incumbent Senator Scott Brown reached out to challenger Elizabeth Warren (read the actual correspondence) and challenged her to enter a People’s Pledge. Modeled after the Weld-Kerry agreement it included limits on outside spending (it’s notable that no one is talking about limiting total expenditures any more—Citizens United changed the political landscape and dialogue). After significant back and forth, both candidates signed on and even sent notice to third party groups and TV stations that might run their ads, warning them to stay out of the race.

Common Cause Massachusetts reported that the 2012 People’s Pledge did a great job at minimizing outside money in the Brown-Warren race when compared to similar races that year. We know that outside spending is overwhelmingly negative, can come from undisclosed sources, and can be raised in unlimited amounts. In 2013 when the Gomez-Markey race did not have a pledge outside spending from right and left came flooding back in.

So here we are in neighboring Rhode Island looking at the prospect of a very expensive Democratic primary, followed by a very short, but quite-possibly expensive, general election for governor in 2014. Typically races for governor aren’t fought on the national issues that draws outside groups into Senate races but that may be different this time.

Common Cause Rhode Island would like to see all candidates for governor negotiate a People’s Pledge.  We mentioned the idea over a month ago when the first self-described Super PAC emerged.  Sam Howard wrote about the idea at length on RI Future soon after.  Quite frankly, we were waiting for the candidates to actually declare before we began to push for an agreement.

So now the cat is out of the bag.  As a non-partisan group that does not engage in electioneering it would be easy to just let the topic die.  We do not want to be seen as favoring any candidate over another.  But this is too important a topic.  Rhode Island deserves a campaign in 2014 that will focus on issues, not attacks. We deserve to know where the money that is backing the candidates is coming from. For those reasons we are asking the would-be candidates to meet and discuss this idea.

This won’t be easy.  Massachusetts has demonstrated that these agreements might take some time to work out, but that they can work.  Each candidate has strengths and weaknesses when it comes to campaign finance and the negotiations should address those.  As the Supreme Court dismantles limits on money in politics (and next it might be limits on contributions directly to candidates) we need to look to alternatives.  The People’s Pledge may be our best hope.  Let’s give it a try.

Taveras calls for People’s Pledge in governor’s race


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Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras supporting payday loan reform. (Bob Plain 5/18/12 Click on image for larger version)
Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras supporting payday loan reform. (Bob Plain 5/18/12 Click on image for larger version)

In an effort to keep out of state interests from buying up the governor’s race, Providence Mayor Angel Taveras is asking Democrats to sign a People’s Pledge the disavows SuperPAC donations and other anonymous contributions.

“We shouldn’t allow outside special interests – whether it is deep-pocketed contributors or Wall Street entities – to spend freely through Super PACs or other Independent Expenditures,” Taveras said in a prepared statement. “We can’t allow Wall Street or special interests to use Super PACs as a backdoor to buy their own Rhode Island government. These are often shadowy groups who aren’t subject to public scrutiny. Voters deserve free and fair elections with the greatest transparency as possible.”

His campaign has been working on the pledge for several months, and it is based on two Massachusetts campaigns that took similar pleges: Congressman Ed Markey and Senator Elizabeth Warren. “I think Elizabeth Warren set a terrific example for Democrats by calling for an end to outside spending in campaigns,” Taveras said in a statement.

The idea of using a People’s Pledge in Rhode Island’s 2014 Democratic primary for governor was floated by Sam Howard in this post in September. In it, he writes:

Maybe we’ll be served well by a bruising Democratic primary…

…Or maybe reason and sense will come to our would-be leaders. And instead of behaving like two Cold War commanders; locked in Mutually Assured Destruction, each attempting to win with a devastating first strike; they’ll have a moment of sanity, as they so often have appealed to us to find within ourselves.

Then they might set aside whatever distaste for one another they might have, and meet, and take a People’s Pledge. And they could tell us that unaccountable money has no place in the Rhode Island of today, and should that vile spending find its way into our small state the benefactor will donate a sum to charity.

WPRI broke the story earlier this morning with this great lede: “He hasn’t formally declared his intention to run for governor, but Providence Mayor Angel Taveras is already trying to set the rules for the race.”

“It is one thing to opt out of the voluntary public financing system,” Taveras said in the press release. “It is another thing to allow Super PAC activity on one’s behalf after so many good Democrats worked hard for campaign finance reform in Rhode Island. Super PACs and Independent Expenditures are extraordinarily unpopular with Rhode Islanders and citizens across the country who are concerned about unchecked outside money in campaigns. As Democrats, we should hold ourselves to a higher standard,”

Here’s the pledge:

Rhode Island People’s Pledge

Because outside third-party organizations – including but not limited to individuals, corporations, 527 organizations, 501(c:) organizations, SuperPACs, national and state party committees – may air and continue to air and/or direct mail Independent Expenditure advertisements and issue advertisements either supporting or attacking (individually the “Candidate” and collectively the “Candidates”); and

Because these groups function as Independent Expenditure organizations that are outside the direct control of any of the Candidates; and

Because similar agreements have been proven to work in statewide campaigns in Massachusetts; and because the candidates agree that they do not approve of such Independent Expenditure advertisements and/or direct mail and want those advertisements and/or direct mail to immediately cease and desist for the 2014 gubernatorial election cycle; and

Because the candidates recognize that in order to provide the citizens of Rhode Island with an election free of third-party Independent Expenditure advertisements and/or direct mail, they must be willing to include an enforcement mechanism that runs not to the third party organizations but instead to the candidates’ own campaigns:

The candidates on behalf of their respective campaigns hereby agree to the following:

1. In the event that a third-party organization airs any Independent Expenditure broadcast including radio, cable, satellite, online advertising and/or direct mail in support of a named, referenced (funded by title) or otherwise identified candidate, that candidate’s campaign shall, within three (3) days of discovery of the advertisement buy’s cost, duration, and source, pay 50% of the cost of that advertising buy to a charity of the opposing candidate’s choice.

2. In the event that a third-party organization airs any Independent Expenditure broadcast including radio, cable or satellite advertising, online advertising and/or direct mail in opposition to a named, referenced (including by title) or otherwise identified candidate, the opposing candidate’s campaign shall, within three (3) days of discovery of the advertisement’s buy’s cost, duration, and source, pay 50% of the cost of that advertising buy to a charity of the opposed candidate’s choice.

3. In the event that a third-party organization airs any broadcast including radio, cable, or satellite online advertising and/or direct mail that promotes or supports a named, referenced (including by title) or otherwise identified candidate, that candidate’s campaign shall, within three (3) days of discovery of the advertisement buy’s cost, duration, and source, pay 50% of the cost of that advertising buy to a charity of the opposing candidate’s choice.

4. In the event that a third-party organization airs any broadcast including radio, cable or satellite, online advertising and/or direct mail that attacks or opposes a named, referenced (including by title) or otherwise identified candidate, the opposing candidate’s campaign shall, within three (3) days of discovery of the advertisement buy’s cost, duration, and source, pay 50% of the cost of that advertising buy to a charity of the opposed candidate’s choice.

5. The candidates and their campaigns agree that neither they nor anyone acting on their behalf shall coordinate with any third party on any paid advertising and/or direct mail for the duration of the 2014 gubernatorial election cycle. In the event that either candidate or their campaign or anyone acting on their behalf coordinates any paid advertisement and/or direct mail with a third-party organization that candidate’s campaign shall pay 50% of the cost of the advertisement buy and/or direct mail cost to a charity of the opposing Candidate’s choice.

Penalties for Breach

In the event that the undersigned candidate fails to make the charitable donation within the three-day time requirement, then the charitable donation shall double the required amount for an additional five (5) days after which if the charitable contribution is not made, then the charitable donation shall increase an additional amount representing an increase of 50% to the immediately preceding required charitable amount.

The candidates and their campaigns agree to continue to work together to limit the influence of third-party advertisements and to close any loopholes (including coverage of sham ads) that arise in this agreement during the course of the campaign.

 


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