Fake Facebook page costs Chuck Newton job and role with EG GOP Committee


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chuck newtonNot only did GOP operative Chuck Newton lose his State House job for helping Senator Nick Kettle mock a Democratic colleague with a fake Facebook page, but the move also cost him his position with the East Greenwich Republican Town Committee. He resigned from his position as chairman earlier this week, according to East Greenwich Town Council President Michael Isaacs.

Newton (a former employer of mine) is still listed as the chairman on the group’s webpage.

“Chuck accepted responsibility,” said Isaacs, who has advocated for less anonymous political attacks on the internet. “I think the whole thing, it was almost sophomoric. Unfortunately it’s indicative of the negativity that pervades politics on both sides.”

Senator Dawson Hodgson, a Republican who represents East Greenwich and is running for attorney general, agreed.

“I thought that was appropriate [that Newton be fired] because he created that in his state office on state time and we as a Republican Party stand for wise use of public resources and that is not consistent with how we operate.”

Hodgson said he did not believe a crime was committed. Steve Brown, executive director of the RI ACLU, agreed.

In a letter to Attorney General Peter Kilmartin, Brown wrote, “Indeed, as you are aware, the courts have set a very high standard for public officials to pursue even civil actions against political invective. If the broadsides on this Facebook page constitute unlawful “harassment,” then The Daily Show, the Colbert Report, and dozens of other political web sites engage in criminal activity every day.”

Amy Kempe, spokewoman for Kilmartin, said the Attorney General’s office is still waiting for a complete report from police. “It underscores the loopholes in current statutes,” she said. “We’re trying to add in online impersonation.”

Kempe said the AG’s office will consider stand alone legislation for online impersonation this year instead of bundling it with other provisions.

Rep. Scott Guthrie said he is considering bringing federal charges.

Democracy 3 Reviewed


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Democracy 3 cause and effects
Screenshot of Democracy 3 (via Positech Games)

I was the President of the United States. I was working hard to end homelessness, stop vigilante mobs from taking the law into their own hands, and reduce our out-of-control deficit. And then a black power movement assassinated me. And that’s how my first game of Democracy 3 ended.

Democracy 3 is Positech Games’ extraordinarily deep political simulation. On the face of it, it’s exceedingly simple. You play the chief executive of a nation (America, Canada, the UK, France, Germany and possibly a sixth who I’ve forgotten). You expend political capital to address crises, appease voters, and pursue your own policy goals.

Of course, it’s far more complex than all that. Take the vigilante mobs, for instance. Of the two games I played, both America and Germany had vigilantes applying justice due to high crime rates. Crime in Democracy 3 is affected by a number of different variables just like in real life. The difference is that in real life, you don’t necessarily know what those variable are. But say you realize that poverty is one of biggest factors. Well, poverty is being effected by a number of other issues and policies; such as GDP and unemployment and well, there’s a global economic crisis happening. Often, in your quest to solve a single crisis, you end up working on a number of other issues in the hope that you can reduce that as well.

The solutions are varied. In my far more successful game as Germany, I managed to address the nationwide problem of alcohol abuse by both raising the drinking age to 21 and by legalizing cannabis. Those weren’t the only policy solutions, but they were the most direct (it also allowed me to tax cannabis to help me expand my budget surplus). That was after I’d subdued crime by pumping money into the police force and intelligence service and by creating a generous welfare state on top of that. I eventually ended poverty and crime altogether.

As far as interface goes, Democracy 3 is a charthound’s wet dream. There are more graphs and flowcharts here than you’d expect to find in an Excel spreadsheet, and virtually everything that’s clickable leads to another graph of some sort. However, that means you don’t get a map like in Rome III or Crusader Kings 2. Or even a character sprite. You, your opponents, the country and the voters exist in the abstract (although you can focus group voters and see how your political rivals are doing).

Everything is done with political capital, which you accumulate each turn based on the skills of your cabinet ministers. Ministers have their own desires for positions on your cabinet, vary in their loyalty to you, and also have different levels of effectiveness. Fail to keep your ministers happy and you could find yourself with a resignation on your hands, causing a massive decrease in your popularity. This will also be bad because it’s likely to have reduced the amount of political capital you have, making you less able to deal with a crisis.

I wouldn’t call Democracy 3 an “accurate” political simulator. But it is an enjoyable one. At the very least, it pushes the player to shunt aside their idealistic views to solve the problems of the here and now. Once those problems are solved, you can set about pursuing your own policy goals. Of course, a crisis can bubble up without you noticing (racial tensions exploded into race riots in my Germany because immigration had increased dramatically as the country’s economic situation improved). Then it becomes a question about whether you want to spend the money to fix it the way you believe in, or whether you’ll take the cheapest option out.

Who knows, maybe you’ll get re-elected with 90% of the vote.

Democracy 3 is available at 50% off for the next three days on Steam.

Red Flags in the rTerra Announcement


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i-can-hazOne has to imagine the trepedation at the EDC, er, CommerceRI as they announced their first direct business-development loan since their symbolic name change. Would they vanquish the ghosts of loans-gone-bad with a profusion of public disclosures, instilling confidence in their ability to execute? That would be amazing.

Instead, they announced a loan to a virtually unknown entity called PV Solutions. See how there isn’t a link there on the company name? Red flag.

The company that wasn’t

Other than the two Projo stories, the one in PBN and CommerceRI’s press release, I find no such thing as PV Solutions or the alleged product Tflex solar panels on the Internet. Which isn’t to say they don’t exist. But it does raise the question of…WTF? At least have a Facebook page. I mean…right?

PR isn’t everything, but it’s important, especially if your borrowing the money to spur a global sales operation. That’s a red flag for me.

As reported elsewhere, PV Solutions is a spin-off of equally un-marketed rTerra. That website is a stub at best, but at least it exists. I have no idea what they would actually do or any projects they might have successfully completed. They do have a board of directors with a famous person. So there’s that.

Only Tim Faulker at ecoRI gave any real substance about the company. (Although Stanley Weiss’s quote in the PBN piece is a plum.) The basic business is small, industrial-scale solar farms using a flexible photovoltaic panel that’s quicker and cheaper to install. More importantly, they have a completed, 10-megawatt project on a capped landfill in Delaware. (See how there isn’t a link to the project there…red flag.)

On that rTerra board of directors page, third guy down is Joe Tomlinson, who founded this business. Says he’s a “visionary marketer.” Huh.

This might or might not be a viable business. It’s all about the execution. They need to sell, deliver, install, support, rinse and repeat.

But really, they need to sell. And if they do make a sale, I hope they’ll be nice enough to tell us about it.

Providence pension — fiscal scolds out in force


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From a YouTube video made by Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn.
From a YouTube video made by Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn.

I spent a little time recently with the new report on Providence’s municipal pension plan, and then I read an article on golocalprov that wanted me to panic about it, quoting the usual chorus of scolds who want us to defund public services.  Then I went back and read the report some more and I still don’t see why this report isn’t considered good news.  It should be.

The report does point out that Providence has a funding ratio of around 32%, and this is low enough to be worrisome.  But it also points out that the unfunded liability of the plan has fallen 8% as a result of Mayor Taveras’s pension reforms.  The unfunded liability now stands at $830 million, down from $900 million a couple of years ago.  Since the plan has assets of just a bit under $400 million, this seems scary, but it’s important to understand exactly what this number represents.  It is the money you’d have to invest now in order to pay off all the debts of the plan in the future.  In order to make a calculation like this, you have to make a lot of assumptions about the future: how long people will live, what the inflation rate will be, and what the investment returns are likely to be.

Critics in the golocal story claim that the investment return assumptions are high at 8.25%.  The critics are wrong for a couple of reasons.  First, it is important that this assumption be consistent with reality, but it is as important for it to be consistent with the other assumptions made.  As for reality, over the long term, and accounting for inflation (which this number does), this actually is not a terrible guess.  There are reasons to think that over the next few decades this is high, but over the last few, it’s been decent.

RI Future contributor Tom Sgouros recently wrote this book about fixing the banking system. Click on the image for more information.
RI Future contributor Tom Sgouros recently wrote this book about fixing the banking system. Click on the image for more information.

As for the other assumptions, critics who think this rate should be lowered, are generally not also suggesting that the inflation rate be lowered on the other side of the ledger, too.  That is, this 8.25% investment assumption incorporates assumptions about the inflation rate in the future, but so do assumptions about the plan’s cost — i.e. the pension checks — 40 years from now.  A big part of the reason we’re looking at low investment returns over the near term is because of low interest rates and low inflation.  Lowering the investment assumptions should mean lowering the cost inflation assumptions, too, and yet, the Buffets, and Moody’s who demand more realistic investment assumptions are usually silent about those adjustments.  Pension plans are not all about investments; there’s a reason why they are run by actuaries and not investment managers.

Another reason why we should be suspect of calls to lower the rate of return is that the scolds don’t generally account for the risk of overfunding a pension plan.  Every dollar that goes into the pension fund is a dollar not spent on educating children or plowing city streets.  It is far better to run the fund at a level modestly below 100% than it is to achieve or surpass that goal.  I will never understand how people who rail against government waste will nonetheless insist that we put more money into a pension plan than is strictly necessary.  To me, that seems the very definition of waste, but that’s the 21st century for you, I guess.

So what else is in the report?  There’s a payment schedule that shows that although the payments to the plan are indeed going to go up in the short term, as a fraction of the city payroll, they go up very little, and this includes money put toward the unfunded liability.  I see that last year, the income from the fund, plus the city’s payments, plus the contributions from current employees, was about $7 million short of the checks the system paid out.  Red ink sounds bad, but these are calculations that involve repaying the investment losses of a couple of years ago.  When you look at the actual flows of actual dollars, the system is well in the black over this past year.

The truth is that the payment schedule shown in the report is very optimistic, and  the city could fall far behind that funding schedule (perhaps if the return assumption is too high, for example) and still make all the payments to retirees it anticipates.  Remember, some of that unfunded liability won’t be paid until the youngest current city employee dies, say around 2075 or 2080, but the schedule in the report anticipates paying off the entire debt by 2040.  The golocal story makes it sound like  a 30-year amortization schedule is something unusual, though it is completely routine in the industry except for the plans that use a longer term.

What people routinely forget is to keep their eyes on the ball.  The goal is not to satisfy some Olympian ideal of pension perfection as defined by Wall Street, the goal is to make all the promised payments at the lowest cost possible.  The conventional wisdom of pension accounting ignores this goal, and imagines somehow that the city’s responsibility to its retirees so far trumps its responsibility to the children in its schools or the snow on its streets that overfunding the pension system is the only way to go.  If Providence only makes it to 80% funding in 2040, short of the goal of 100%, pension checks will still be mailed out in 2041, just as they have been mailed out this year, when the funding ratio was so much smaller.  If Providence were to short the pension payments and use that to improve the city’s economy, the pension plan might be more expensive in the future, but the city might be better able to accommodate the expense, too.  There is balance necessary and the scolds who insist everything be pre-funded are no better than the past mayors who skipped payments.

The bottom line here is that Providence’s pension plan is a source of concern and requires careful consideration and monitoring over the next few years, but there is no reason to panic over these numbers.  The pension reform seems to have helped substantially, and there is ample reason to think it will continue to help.  Does that sound like cause for panic?

Smiley, Goldin and Cimini submit “Guns and Ammo” tax bill


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Goldin SmileyBrett Smiley, running for the position of Mayor of Providence in this September’s Democratic primary isn’t letting the fact that he hasn’t been elected stop him from coming forward with some bold new initiatives.

Tuesday morning found Smiley in the State House rotunda with State Senator Gayle Goldin proposing a bill that upon passage would impose a 10% tax on all gun and ammunition sales in the state. Representative Maria Cimini, who was unable to attend the press conference, will introduce the bill in the house.

The bill promises to allocate all funds raised from this tax (estimated by Smiley to be about $2 million) to every town and city police department based proportionally on the prevalence of crime in each area, and then each police department will further allocate the money to non-profits with a demonstrated commitment to reducing crime and violence.

Said Smiley, “Just like we expect the tobacco industry and those who support it to pay for public health initiatives, the firearms industry and those who prop it up should be paying to keep our streets safe.”

Senator Goldin pointed out that, “This is a different approach,” adding, “I will certainly be working hard to get this passed.”

Currently, no state has imposed a special tax on guns or ammunition, and only Cook County, Illinois has imposed a special tax on guns. In that sense this legislation marks a new kind of thinking when dealing with gun violence on a state level.

“The damage done by guns legally and illegal [obtained] imposes a cost on society and this [bill] is one way to pay that cost,” said Smiley, “Gun violence has been a plague on our community for many years, and solutions to address this issue deserve long term commitments from all of us who seek to serve the community.”

Mark Patinkin picks bad example to depict workers’ rights


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What’s a worse sin in mainstream media bias? Is it when a reporter offers an opinion in an otherwise so-called straight news piece, or is it when opinionators offer a skewed view of the state in order to stump for their pet philosophies?

patinkinI’d say it’s the latter is where Rhode Island’s marketplace of ideas misses the mark. Case in point: Mark Patinkin’s column this morning on worker versus management rights.

He chose to focus on the spat between college buddies Rob Rainville and John Feroce, who it turned out didn’t enjoy working together as much as they liked partying together. Rainville was the attorney for Alex and Ani and Feroce the CEO. When the business and/or personal relationship turned sour Rainville, a lawyer, filed suit. Alex and Ani is under intense scrutiny as of late, and this is certainly a newsworthy topic. But it’s not an example of labor versus management rights – it’s an example of what can happen when longtime friends add loads of money and a law degree to the equation.

Better examples of the tension when employees and employers part ways exist in Rhode Island, and Patinkin would have had to only read the newspaper he works for to find about them.

One from yesterday’s Providence Journal described how the owner of a Warwick tree service fired an worker when he got hurt with a chainsaw on the job. And when the employee stood up for his worker’s rights, management had him deported. A judge awarded the employee a $30,000 settlement and then the state fined the owner $150,000 when he failed to make good on the restitution.

I’d like to know, since it seems to be a topic worthy of debate, what Mark Patinkin thinks of this situation. To me it seems pretty obvious both the employee and employer would have fared better if the employee enjoyed the full rights of American citizenship, probably would have saved us taxpayers money too.

Or how about this one from last week, in which a former Hasbro employee says she was fired for being gay and a woman. According to the ProJo, the woman “alleges that her open commitment to the cause of women’s rights, her gender and her sexual orientation led Hasbro to falsely accuse her of misconduct and subsequently fire her last January.”

If his Twitter timeline is any clue, I would expect Mark Patinkin to be even less empathetic to workers’ rights when the worker in question is a female.

He tweeted this yesterday:

And admitted to being a sexist in a January tweet:

No, Mark Patinkin, you are not the only sexist who wonders such things. But it is good that you can admit to being a sexist. That’s the first step.  You ought to also admit that your most recent column about employee versus employer rights does more damage to this important discussion than it does service.

Fiction: A personal story of slavery in Rhode Island


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Screen Shot 2014-02-05 at 9.58.52 PMHis name was John Harding. It must have been tough for a little white boy growing up in Newport, Rhode Island in 1805. Perhaps his mother and the other crewmen called him “Little John.” After all, he was only 4ft, 3 1/2 in. when he enlisted as a seaman on board a Rhode Island-based slave ship called Charles and Harriot. Little John was 11 years old.

The vessel was bound for what is to today the southeast African nation of Mozambique. Upon arrival Little John’s menial duties as a seaman expanded to that of a jailer of captive Africans. Indeed, all crew on board slave ships where jailers of a sort. How trying it must have been for Little John to maintain vigilant surveillance over a desperate human cargo after the long weeks at sea.

I wonder what Little John thought as he gazed into the lamenting eyes of captive Africans, as their shackled feet pressed their way onto the blood-stained sailing vessel of death. One can only imagine Little John fears as he beheld those humans — some of whom were his same age. “Will they kill me? Will I return home to my mother and father and brothers and sisters?” he must have speculated to himself.”

And even still I wonder what Africans thought when they witnessed Little John, a mere child given charge to be the eyes and ears securing their captivity. As the beautiful African souls plotted their revolt, surely they imagined that Little John would have to be the first to die. He was the smallest, and thus, most vulnerable. “Yeah, we will change his fate and thereby change our ownt!” they thought to themselves.

Alas, it was not to be so. For Little John completed his first voyage as a seaman aboard this Rhode Island slave ship. The following year (1806) Little John returned to the seas where he celebrated his 12th birthday on board another “slaver.” And no doubt the Africans who boarded this floating prison would attempt to make sure Little John never sailed again.

My semi-fictional narrative based on true events from the book The Notorious Triangle: Rhode Island and the African Slave Trade, 1700-1807, by Jay Coughtry

Sheldon Whitehouse pulls climate change advocacy hat trick this week


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sheldonwhitehouseRhode Island Senator Sheldon Whitehouse is leading the fight in Congress to curtail climate change and he’ll be proving it tomorrow when he speaks at Politico’s event on energy policy in the morning, and then testifying before the EPA in favor new carbon pollution standards for new power plants.

You can watch the Politico event live here tomorrow morning. But if you just can’t wait to see Sheldon talk climate change, watch his weekly congressional address on the issue here:

 

CVS: This is what good corporate citizenship looks like


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cvsRhode Island-born and based drug store giant CVS made international news this morning when the pharmacy chain announced it would stop selling tobacco products.

“The company’s move was yet another sign of its metamorphosis into becoming more of a health care provider than a largely retail business, with its stores offering more miniclinics and health advice to aid customers visiting its pharmacies,” according to the New York Times.

And the National Journal wrote, “The move, which some might see as long overdue at a one-stop shop that doubles as a convenience store and pharmacy, could be a savvy publicity coup that builds brand loyalty with certain demographics.”

I know I’m pretty excited that it’s a Rhode Island company willing to take a $2 billion (less than 2 percent of annual revenue) annual hit so that its business model better matches its values.

So is Congressman Jim Langevin, who sent this statement:

CVS has long been a good corporate citizen and a pillar of the Rhode Island community, and this decision to change their business practice in the interest of public health is yet another example of CVS’s leadership. I believe they are blazing the trail for other companies to put profits aside and join the movement to help decrease tobacco use nationwide and improve public health. I am proud that this bold move is coming from a Rhode Island-based company, and I know that health care providers here are well-equipped with cessation and counseling programs to help CVS customers and all Rhode Islanders quit smoking and get on the path to a healthier life.

Providence Mayor Angel Taveras said:

I am proud that the Rhode Island-based CVS has taken a leading role to end the sale of tobacco in pharmacies. Pharmacies are trusted sources of health information for consumers, and the choice to stop selling tobacco products demonstrates CVS’ commitment to the wellbeing of its customers.

And Governor Chafee said:

This must have been a difficult decision for the corporation and the board to weigh the benefits of making the conscientious choice versus the possibility of jeopardizing the bottom line. I applaud CVS/Caremark for taking the right fork in the road.

State House cyber-bullying: not illegal, just childish


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It doesn’t appear as if the Republicans involved in the cyber-smear campaign against Rep. Scott Guthrie have committed a crime when they made a fake Facebook page to lampoon the Coventry Democrat. (Here’s the applicable state law) But it doesn’t seem like they took much effort to ensure the public would know that their gag was in fact a farce.

That’s maybe worse than cyber-harassment. It’s cyber-deception. According to the Providence Journal Attorney General Peter Kilmartin “has tried – and failed – to convince the General Assembly to pass legislation creating a new category of crime for ‘online impersonation.'” According to this TIME post, such activity is against the law in nine states.

Worth noting, though, that Rhode Island holds our public school students to a higher standard than our public officials. Here’s the applicable section from RIDE’s 2012 cyber-bullying policy:

Forms of cyber‐bullying may include but are not limited to: a. The creation of a web page or blog in which the creator assumes the identity of another person; b. The knowing impersonation of another person as the author of posted content or messages; or c. The distribution by electronic means of a communication to more than one person or the posting of materials on an electronic medium that may be accessed by one or more persons, if the creation, impersonation, or distribution results in any of the conditions enumerated in clauses (a) to (e) of the definition of bullying.

So, to recap: not criminal but for reference we expect better conduct from children. And for those who will confuse this as a First Amendment issue, this isn’t the issue:

octo-guthrieThis is:

fake guthrie fb shot

John Marion of Common Cause RI explains People’s Pledge


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As early as Monday RI Democratic candidates for governor will sit at this table at Common Cause RI to agree to discourage outside spending in the Democratic primary.
As early as Monday RI Democratic candidates for governor will sit at this table at Common Cause RI to agree to discourage outside spending in the Democratic primary.

Democratic candidates for governor could meet Monday with Common Cause RI to hammer out the details of a People’s Pledge, said John Marion, executive director of the good government group who first suggested using the tool developed in Massachusetts to keep outside money from influencing local elections.

Marion said in an interview yesterday that People’s Pledges have been utilized four times in Massachusetts to keep Super PAC and other so-called “dark” money from spending money on negative advertising in local elections – Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown were the pioneers and it was used in two subsequent congressional races; and Marion also includes an agreement   between Bill Weld and John Kerry in 1996.

But, to his knowledge, this would be the first time the ad-hoc workaround to the controversial Citizens United Supreme Court ruling that allows unlimited and anonymous money to be spent in elections.

“With the growth of third party spending … the candidates actual message gets drowned out,” Marion said. “That spending tends to be overwhelmingly negative. Those groups acts as proxys for the official campaign.  Official campaigns don’t like to go negative because it reflects poorly on the candidates but when it’s independent of candidate they have no problem.”

Marion said a People’s Pledge could curtail that and be “potentially historic.”

Listen to our conversation here:

Nobody knows how to increase 11th grade NECAP math scores


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The most prominent and persuasive argument for using the 11th grade NECAP math test as a graduation requirement in RI high schools has been the relative success of Massuchusetts’ use of their MCAS exam for that purpose.  Last year I prepared a graph showing how Massachusetts student’s math MCAS scores increased over time compared to the NECAP math scores of RI, Vermont and New Hampshire.  It is important to note that Vermont and New Hampshire score in the top tier of states by virtually every measure of math achievement.

NECAP vs. MCAS

See where the percentage scoring at least “2” on the MCAS  jumps about 20% between years three and four?  That’s the graduation requirement kicked in for juniors.  The same effect in theory should have kicked in in year six (last year) for the RI NECAP, but there was no corresponding jump.

The 2013 NECAP results, which have been partially released on RIDE’s website, continue the past trend.  The number of 11th graders statewide scoring “1” or “substantially below proficient” decreased just 4% to 36%.  This is simply not enough progress to show the policy is working.  If you dig down to individual districts and charter schools — demographic and other in-district breakdowns are not available — it is even more disappointing (past years’ data from here):

  • The state’s flagship turnaround at Central Falls High School has the same number of students scoring “1” in 2013, 73%, as in 2008.  After all the turmoil, expense, and the reformers’ best effort, no change.
  • Providence Public Schools has bumped the “1’s” down from  67% in 2008 to 63% in 2013.
  • Barrington High School has only improved 4% since 2008: 12% to 8% scoring a “1” (compared to 1% in reading both years).
  • Blackstone Academy, a small (about 40 in the junior class) charter with 85% economically disadvantaged students, has levelled off after some impressive progress with about a third of juniors not meeting the graduation standard.
  • Paul Cuffee Charter School, a well-regarded new high school in Providence, still has 52% of juniors not scoring above a “1.”
  • A few districts had noticeably fewer students at “substantially below proficient” compared to 2012: North Providence from 44% to 26%; Pawtucket, 63% to 52%; Westerly, 29% to 17%.
  • But a other districts saw increases in students not meeting the requirement since last year: Exeter-West Greenwich, +9%; Newport, +4%; South Kingston, +3%.

I should hasten to note that my point here is not to do the typical blame and shame.  What seven years of 11th grade NECAP math scores tell me is that nobody has figured out how to increase them, especially among disadvantaged students, to an degree comparable to the MCAS and by enough to make the test an appropriate graduation requirement.

This is not supposed to happen.  Two of the fundamental premises of contemporary school reform are that students will rise to the level of expectations, and that incentives drive results.  We’ve got the expectations, the incentives could not be clearer or higher stakes to students and all the adult stakeholders and… the results are just not there.

To replicate the MCAS success story, North Providence’s 18 point improvement would have to be the average gain statewide, not an outlier.  When your highest flying low-income charter still has a third of its juniors not on track to graduate because of a single test, that’s not normal.  If RIDE knows how to increase 11th grade math NECAP scores, why haven’t they told Central Falls?  We’ve been paying outside consultants, too, like The Dana Center, who know as much about aligning math curriculum to standards as anyone.  Apparently they don’t know the answer either.

Exactly why we — and New Hampshire and Vermont — don’t seem to be able to raise 11th grade NECAP math scores is beside the point.  My theory is that 11th grade NECAP math scores reflect “fluid intelligence” more than the MCAS and other standardized tests, and teaching “fluid” skills like analyzing abstract problems and thinking logically in school is difficult and poorly understood.

Or perhaps the difference is simply that the MCAS was a problem designed with its own solution in mind.  The test was developed in parallel with a curriculum framework.  For schools to raise their MCAS scores, they needed to do a better job of delivering the state curriculum, which was not necessarily easy, but it was straightforward and achievable.  There is no equivalent map for increasing NECAP scores.

At this point, the burden of proof should pass to the proponents of the NECAP graduation requirement to lay out an evidence-based strategy for increasing the “pass” rate for NECAP math statewide by 20% that amounts to something other than “stay the course.”  We can’t have a third or more of seniors not knowing if they’re going to graduate in February or scrambling for waivers.  For this to work, we need Barrington at 99% pass, Westerly and Blackstone Academy at 95%, and Central Falls and Providence  need to nearly double the number of students getting over the bar.  Maybe it is possible.  Tell me how.  I don’t see it.

And of course, it is a moot point since RI is moving off the NECAP as soon as possible anyhow. So… seriously, why are we doing this to ourselves?

Raising the minimum wage creates partisan divide


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housing minimum wage graphicLast week in his State of the Union address, President Barack Obama called on both Chambers of Congress to either work with him to move the country forward or forcing him to use his presidential powers to enact  policy. 

He rattled off dozens of policy initiatives for Congress to consider this session, including immigration, emergency unemployment, manufacturing, trade, environment, education, closing Guantanamo Bay, closing tax loop holes, job training, family policies, and retirement savings. But the President also called for an increase in the nation’s minimum wage to provide America’s worker’s a living wage.

The president used his speech as a very visible bully pulpit to call on states to not wait for Congressional action to give people a living wage.

Although creating jobs will be one of the top campaign issues that must be addressed by the state’s gubernatorial candidates (Clay Pell was not available for comment by press time), look for the minimum wage issue to pop up for political discussion with the Democratic and Republican views being like two sides of a coin. 

When he announced his bid for governor, Mayor Taveras he told his supporters that increasing the minimum wage is a step in building an economy that supports higher paying jobs, puts people back to work and gives Rhode Island families the opportunity for a better life. There was a time when his mother worked at the minimum wage to support three children so he knows firsthand how much raising it can help a family, he stated. He is also pushing for statewide universal pre-kindergarten.

Tarveras quoted from a recent study by the Economic Policy Institute that indicated that increasing the minimum wage to $10.10 an hour would increase the wages of 65,000 Rhode Island workers and indirectly benefit an additional 26,000 more, totaling nearly 20 percent of the work force.  He cited another study that found that moving to a higher wage would boost the national economy by as much as $22.1 billion, creating as many as 85,000 new jobs.”

“I’m a Democrat who believes in raising the minimum wage and indexing it with regular cost of living adjustments,” noted Treasurer Gina Raimondo, in her announcement to run for Governor at Hope Artiste Village in Pawtucket.

According to Eric Hyers, Gina Raimondo’s Campaign Manager, “Gina strongly believes that we need to increase the minimum wage and she was pleased to see President Obama call for increasing the minimum wage to $10.10 an hour during the State of the Union this week.  No one who works full time should live in poverty.  As the President said, it is time to give America a raise.”

“But let’s not wait for a dysfunctional Congress to act; we can take action right here in Rhode Island,” Hyers said.

“Gina is calling for us to take action on this now and raise the minimum wage to $10.10 by 2015 and then index it to the cost of living so that politicians can’t play games with people’s lives. Two-thirds of minimum wage earners are women so a raise would immediately help women across Rhode Island and their families, adds Hyer, noting that people are really struggling and there is an urgency to help out working families.

Meanwhile, “Clay [Pell] is in favor of increasing the minimum wage to $10.10 per hour and does not see a reason to delay this matter until 2018 or 2015. He would be in favor of the General Assembly passing legislation this year. Too many Rhode Islanders are working in jobs at wages that are simply insufficient and no individual who works a full time job should have to raise their family in poverty. There’s an economic development aspect to this as well, by raising the minimum wage we’re putting more purchasing power out there, which will help spur the economy,” said Bill Fischer, Pell’s spokesperson.

General Contractor Todd Giroux, a Bristol resident who seeks the Democratic nomination for Governor, sees the national conversation of increasing the minimum wage as shifting towards that of providing America’s workers with living wage.  According to Giroux, President Obama’s call for a national minimum wage increase for federal contractors increases the “momentum for main street people to call upon elected leaders to represent their needs in jobs and wage security.”

Beginning May 2014, Giroux proposes the $ 8.00 minimum wage to be called a provisional starting wage for new hires for the first two weeks of employment.  This hourly rate would increase to $ 9.11 after their second week. On January 2015, the provisional starting wage would be $ 8.75 for the first two weeks of employment, increasing to $10 per hour after their second week.  Full-time, part-time and seasonal workers would be eligible for this salary increase.

Giroux believes the only way to effect a livable wage is to lower a person’s tax burden and increase the state’s mandated minimum wage.The Public Utilities Commissions’ thirty percent increase in the cost of utilities, combined with rising fuel, housing expenses and food work against any [political] argument on increasing the minimum wage, Giroux says.

But the Rhode Island’s GOP candidates, Cranston Mayor Allan Fung and businessman Ken Block, are not buying the Democratic candidate’s solution that minimum wage is the way to go.

“Democrats continue to recycle bad ideas. It’s time we consider some new ones so people have the opportunity to succeed and thrive, and not rely on government coercion to dictate wages. Increasing the minimum wage will result in higher unemployment, reduced job opportunities, reduced customer spending, and will reduce net job growth because of the effect on expanding companies,” says Mayor Fung

Mayor Fung states “At a time when we are tied for the highest unemployment in the country, we cannot put more hurdles in front of the companies we have here in Rhode Island; we need to remove them. Further, Obamacare is already hurting workers because employers are transitioning employees to part time work because they cannot afford the healthcare premiums. An increase in the minimum wage would only increase the burden on small business owners who are already working on thin margins.”

“The real issue in Rhode Island is unemployment and getting our workforce prepared with the necessary skill set for the ever changing workforce. It is quite evident that raising the minimum wage would not solve these problems,” adds Fung.

Block agrees with Fung, noting in a recent statement, “As I said the other day when it was announced that Rhode Island has the worst unemployment in the country, raising the minimum wage is a job killer.”

Block adds, “President Obama seems to believe that government can just order the economy to improve. Republicans and independents know that government has a critically important, but limited role in the growth of jobs. Government’s role is to regulate fairly and only where necessary, and to control its spending so people and businesses are not taxed to death. President Obama continues on the wrong track to fix lagging employment, just as the Democratic leaders of our General Assembly continue on the wrong track to fix Rhode Island.”

Mazze weighs in

But Edward M. Mazze, Distinguished University Professor of Business Administration, at the University of Rhode Island, puts in his two cents into the policy debate, too.

On the one hand, “Raising the minimum wage does not create jobs and can reduce the number of hours worked for existing workers and the number of jobs for part-time workers. There could also be an impact on the number of internships offered to high school and college students.  And, just as important, raising the minimum wage will also raise the price of products and services, observes Mazze.

“The minimum wage is not the entry point to middle class, it is the jobs that pay over $20 an hour and have a “career” future, says Mazze, noting that Rhode Island recently increased the minimum wage.

But, Mazze believes that the state’s minimum wage should be adjusted every number of years to keep up with inflation and other economic events.  “The best way to create living wages in Rhode Island is to prepare workers for jobs for the future, have an economic development strategy that creates jobs and attracts businesses, and have affordable housing and a fair sales, property and personal income tax program,” he notes.  

With the Rhode Island General Assembly geared up to pass legislation to make the Ocean State an easier place to do business, lawmakers should not forget their constituents who cannot pay their mortgage, utility bills, or even put food on their tables.  Until the state’s tax and regulatory system primes the economic pump to create more jobs, giving a little bit more money, say $10.10 per hour, will go a long way for tens of thousands of poor or working poor Rhode Islanders who struggle to survive.

How can Rhode Islander’s currently making a weekly paycheck of $320 (minus taxes), receiving a minimum wage, support their families?  This is not the American Dream they were brought up to believe in.

Herb Weiss, LRI’12 is a Pawtucket-based writer who covers, aging, health care, medical and business issues.  He can be reached at hweissri@aol.com.

Whitehouse, Reed vote no on food stamp cuts in farm bill


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delegationSenators Sheldon Whitehouse and Jack Reed were two of the nine Democrats who voted no on the latest version of the farm bill, which slashes food stamps by $8 billion over the next 10 years.  When the original Senate farm bill (which would have cut nutrition programs by $4 billion) passed, our Senators were the only Democrats voting no.

In the final bill, they picked up no votes from seven other Democrats, including the Senators from our neighboring states–Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Ed Markey (D-MA), Chris Murphy (D-CT), and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT).  Because a surprising number of progressives, including Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), voted with leadership on this one, our senators’ principled votes are especially meaningful.

In the house, both of our Congressmen voted no, too.  David Cicilline took to the floor to deliver one of his best speeches yet, deploring the cruelty of cutting anti-hunger programs.

Although we lost this battle, because our delegation put up such a hard fight, they almost certainly kept the cuts from being even worse than they are.  They deserve our gratitude today.

 

Economists agree: Little reason to trust stink tank’s economic modeling


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mrmoneybags Tom Sgouros and Jason Becker are both well-respected critical thinkers in Rhode Island politics, though they don’t often have opportunity to agree – for example, Sgouros has been critical of the new state education aid funding formula that Becker helped devise.

But it turns out the two have found common ground when it comes to the Center for Freedom and Prosperity. Both agree the science, as it were, associated with the right wing think tank’s plan to eliminate the sales tax is built on rosy predictions and politically-charged assumptions.

Last week Sgouros wrote two posts on the right wing think tank’s specious use of economics in their proposal to shrink state government by reducing the sales tax (here and here). This inspired Becker to take a closer look at the modeling used for its report. After doing so, he tweeted, among many others:

and

Additionally, he tweeted these questions and concerns:

Becker also tweeted this report compiled by an University of Arizona economist (you can check her credentials here) disparaging the same economic modeling tool that the RI right wing think tank used to push its preferred policy here as the Goldwater Institute was using in Arizona.

In it, she wrote, “They should know that models can only be used for modest changes from existing economic conditions and that results from modest changes cannot be used to predict what would happen with large, never before seen, changes in policies.”

Deconstructing ProJo education policy op/ed


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Ed Achorn is the editor of the Providence Journal op/ed page.
Ed Achorn is the editor of the Providence Journal op/ed page.

“…adult benefits, rather than the needs of students, often decide the way public education is administered in Rhode Island,” claims an editorial in today’s Providence Journal describing Education Commission Deborah Gist’s State of Education speech last week.

Those benefits? Well, a little later on the editorial mentions this, “Teachers are finally being evaluated.”

If there are others, the editorial does not mention them. My guess is this is an attempt to heap responsibility onto unionized teachers for the central issue cursing public education in Rhode Island: the achievement gap.

If you think teachers from all over the state are the cause of this massive achievement gap that exists between the affluent suburbs and the struggling cities here in Rhode Island you probably wouldn’t do too well on the critical thinking portion of the NECAP test.

The ProJo owes it to Rhode Island to have a more honest look at education policy in Rhode Island. There are very real issues affecting our children and our economy. Among them listed in the op/ed:

“…huge gaps persist between the performance of poor students and those in the middle-class. Low-income students have a four-year graduation rate of 66 percent, compared with 90 percent for higher-income students.”

Bullseye. And it’s so worth noting that this has absolutely zero to do with employee benefits trumping student need.

“Clearly, the dollars Rhode Island taxpayers are pouring into education are not being spent as effectively as they could be,” opines the op/ed.

I’d agree with this too. Last week, the East Greenwich School Committee approved giving new laptops to every high school student. Meanwhile, in Providence, Pawtucket and Woonsocket students still sometimes need to share outdated text books.

But is this because the adults in Providence, Pawtucket and Woonsocket are more greedy than their East Greenwich counterparts? Or is it because East Greenwich has a better ability to offer a more comprehensive education to its students than does Providence, Pawtucket and Woonsocket?

The op/ed says charter schools are proving “even poor students from the toughest neighborhoods can thrive in the right school environment.” The writer should really compare per pupil spending at charter schools compared to their entirely-publicly funded counterparts are accomplishing this.

In the meantime, one failure of education policy perseveres: our inability to have an honest conversation about solutions to the achievement gap between the affluent suburbs and the struggling cites.  It’s sad that such a conversation is being stifled by the state’s paper of record because of its obvious abhorrence of organized labor.

People’s Pledge faces tough politics


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“The love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows.”

-First Epistle to Timothy, Chapter 6, Verse 10; King James Version

peoples pledge copySo proclaims the KJV, and ponder that the famous part, “the love of money is the root of all evil,” is a proverb older than Christianity itself.

“Issues of campaign finance have taken a front seat in this election,” John Marion told RI Future earlier. Marion should know; as executive director of Common Cause RI the task of keeping the three big Democratic primary campaigns of Pell, Raimondo, and Taveras at the table falls to him as they meet to hammer out the details of a People’s Pledge. Raimondo and Taveras also swatted at one another over campaign donations this week.

It is beginning to sound like negotiating a Pledge will be akin to a Herculean labor. The Raimondo campaign hit with a one-two punch of an expansive Pledge, covering all outside expenditures, not simply the Super PAC spending; and also requested that the negotiations be open to the media.

It’s a canny move, given that it’s likely the Raimondo campaign won’t just be facing campaign operations, but also public sector union operations aimed at ending her career. The “typical” Pledge used by during Massachusetts’ Warren-Brown race for Senate certainly seems to harm Raimondo the most, and the blanket outside spending ban will prevent her opponents from mitigating her significant fundraising lead.

As intelligent as that may be in the immediate future, it seems to ignore that limiting the resources campaigns have will probably lead to negative advertising (because it unfortunately works); and then it becomes a race to see who can emerge the least-bloodied in September. Hopefully, instead of these being ironclad demands, the Raimondo team is merely staking out its ideal position, and will allow itself to be bargained down.

Similarly, the call for opening negotiations to the media sounds like a great idea; until you think that few negotiations of consequence have ever been hammered out in the public eye. Negotiations call for discretion and humility, and the court of public opinion rarely rewards those characteristics, especially for politicians.

But a call for transparency about a Pledge aimed at increasing transparency is good politics, and it’s a fine line to walk between voicing legitimate concerns and sounding like you’ve got something to hide.

Make no mistake about it, this is a war of position right now, with each side marshaling what it needs to hammer at each other come the summer and early fall when voters start actually paying attention.

That’s partly why campaign finance has received media attention at all. It is the season of fundraisers and campaign finance reports. With little to report on beyond money, the political scene will be mostly focused on the big political campaigns until the General Assembly starts to take up bills, at which point the media will keep one eye on both.

The problem is that the state is not electing a fundraiser-in-chief, but rather a governor. Ultimately the Pledge is subservient to that goal, providing the voters the ability to select who they think would govern best. Until then, we may find ourselves, like the ancients, pierced through with many sorrows.

Raimondo suggests direct mail, canvassing be included in People’s Pledge


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raimondo taverasGeneral Treasurer Gina Raimondo is not only interested in coming to the table with her fellow Democrats seeking to be governor and agree to a People’s Pledge, but she’s also upping the ante to include other campaign-related activities like opposition research and door-to-door canvassing.

“Let’s keep all outside money off of the airwaves, out of our mail boxes and away from our phones and doors,” said campaign manager Eric Hyers in a statement released this morning. “We have a historic opportunity to come to an agreement that keeps all third-party spending out of this race and ensures that the Democratic primary for governor is just between the candidates running.”

Hyers suggested all negotiations be public and that it include “a complete ban on any and all outside spending, including advertising by groups that have not endorsed a candidate in this race in order to prevent outside groups from exploiting loopholes” and “cover all TV, radio and web advertising, all direct mail, paid phones, paid canvassers and opposition research.”

Agreeing to limit third party direct mail could hurt Clay Pell, who would seem to have the support of organized labor so far. A limit on canvassing could handicap Angel Taveras, who is said to have an advantage when it comes to boots on the ground.

Hyers said, “Rhode Island can be a national leader in crafting an airtight pledge and we strongly believe that these negotiations should not be conducted behind closed doors.”

UPDATE: Pell spokesman Bill Fischer said in a statement sent out this evening: “Clay Pell believes the impact of Super PAC money on our elections is a serious matter and should be treated as such. This process should be facilitated by Common Cause according to their protocols.  The public will be best served by a deliberate process, not by dueling press releases. It’s hard to imagine that a fruitful discussion can be accomplished with a roomful of campaign operatives playing to the camera, but this is a call best left to John Marion,” said Bill Fischer, Pell campaign spokesperson.”

RI Common Cause Executive Director John Marion said in an email, “Issues of campaign finance have taken a front seat in this election.”

A People’s Pledge is a tool to control outside spending in local elections. First used in Massachusetts, candidates agree to make a donation to their rival’s chairty of choice if an outside group pays for an attack ad. John Marion, of Common Cause RI, and Sam Howard, a contributor to this blog, were first to raise the issue and Angel Taveras was the first candidate to suggest it be used. Since then, Raimondo and Clay Pell have both agreed, while Republicans have been less enthusiastic.

The three Democrats now need to find a time to get together.

“Common Cause is communicating with the campaigns of Clay Pell, Gina Raimondo, and Angel Taveras to try and find a mutually accommodating time to sit down and begin discussion of a People’s Pledge that all three can agree to,” Marion said.

Did the NECAP requirement make a positive difference?


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What’s likely to happen to the number of students receiving diplomas in Rhode Island at the end of this year?

Even after RIDE’s release of the latest NECAP results, it’s hard to accurately predict the impact of the standardized test requirement for graduation. Historically, we know that over the past four years the percentage has averaged out to slightly less than 92%, with approximately 1,000 seniors dropping out, opting for the GED, or transferring out of state.

But last year 4,159 students failed the NECAP and needed to retake the test to try to get a passing score. Of those students, RIDE reported 1,370 succeeded. Of the remaining 2,789, RIDE reports 154 dropped out. Regardless of these drop-outs, the fall enrollment count for this fall was 10,403, which seems in line with previous fall enrollments. In other words, as RIDE stated, the impact of the testing requirement on grade 11 drop-outs was not much.

If 4,195 students failed last year and 1,370 passed this year, our best guess is that 2,789 students in this class of seniors will not graduate with diplomas. For the sake of simplicity, this number assumes that all students dropping out, moving away from the state, or getting a GED are also students who failed the NECAP on their first try.

This is what that number does to the number and percentage of seniors graduating with diplomas: it decimates them.

necap graph[* Estimates based on number of students from the class of 2014 failing NECAP for the second time (2,789)]

Of course, 2,789 is the number before students begin to take the numerous alternative tests available, including the “min-NECAP”, and activate whatever waiver process their districts have in place to compensate for a failing NECAP score.

Hopefully, the 2,789 number will go down. If districts adopt liberal waiver policies, if could go down considerably.

But from this point on, the picture for these 2,789 students looks like a form of mayhem—they will be searching out opportunities to take a variety of tests, only one of which (SAT math) has its cut-score connected to the NECAP by more than air-thin logic. Or they will be trying to get admitted into a “non-open enrollment college”. Or they will be navigating whatever waiver requirements their district has put in place, which requires them to assemble whatever evidence of academic achievement their district has decided to accept.

It’s not a pretty picture for students from here on, and that’s the larger point.

Students who come from organized, well-resourced districts and have organized, well-resourced parents will do best of all and from there on it’s downhill until the devil take the hindmost.

This is as vivid a picture as possible of why the testing policy fails the mission of our education ideal—to educate all children well and to provide an education that will be the entrée to a productive life and career. Our education system has slowly been moving in this direction by including more and more academically vulnerable students into our enrollments–students with learning disabilities, students who do not speak or write English well, students from families with little of no literacy background.

These students pose a challenge to our traditionally structured education system.

They require especially skilled teachers, special lesson plans, more time, smaller classes and, in general, more resources. But, with more adequate and equitable funding, better teacher professional development, and innovative programming, we have slowly been learning how to help these students be more successful in our schools.

The testing requirement threatens to erode this progress. The scenario most likely to emerge in the next few months–as students try to save themselves–will probably be what happened on the Titanic—most of First Class is saved and most of the others go down with the ship. The irony, and it’s bitter, is that all this is being done in the name for what’s good for kids. Anyone who speaks out against it is branded as being against high standards.

This is truly an Orwellian twist, where what is disastrous for many kids is labeled as good for all kids and where condemning some kids is the prerequisite for saving the rest. And we know who those sacrifices will be, our already vulnerable kids. Go get the low hanging fruit.

Two commercials: SNL spoofs CVS, Alex and Ani spoofs Main Street


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Alex and Ani wasn’t the only Rhode Island company with a commercial on national television this weekend. The costume jewelry company paid more than $3 million for an ad during the Super Bowl while CVS got a free plug on Saturday Night Live.

Click here if you can’t see the above video.

Both these Rhode Island powerhouses will clean up on Valentine’s Day, but what is even more interesting that CVS and Alex and Ani also both represent the two different kinds of flagships for a neighborhood economy. CVS traffics in convenience and Alex and Ani traffics in style, but one business model or the other usually anchors any successful enterprise zone – be it a Main Street or elsewhere.

But I think the Saturday Night Live spoof on CVS was more honest about that company’s business model than the message Alex and Ani paid local film maker David Bettencourt, senior cinematographer at Seven Swords Media, shot the commercial”to craft for them.

John Feroce's hometown Main Street still looks like this. Wayland Square hasn't since long before Alex and Ani.
John Feroce’s hometown Main Street still looks like this. Wayland Square hasn’t since long before Alex and Ani came along.

Alex and Ani isn’t helping to revive any Main Streets. It’s locating stores on already successful Main Streets. Here in Rhode Island, there are Alex and Ani stores in Wayland Square, Newport and East Greenwich. But there is not an Alex and Ani in West Warwick where Bettencourt shot scenes for the commercial and where company CEO John Feroce grew up.

I’m not suggesting there Feroce should put an Alex and Ani store in downtown West Warwick (though it certainly would certainly help the city’s economy more than it would hurt the company’s profit margin). But it sure does seem like a great argument for state aid to struggling cities if you ask me.

Think about it: West Warwick fits the bill for educating Feroce when he was growing up, but when he becomes a job creator he does so in East Greenwich and pays property taxes on a home he owns on Bellevue Avenue in Newport. That all works out great for East Greenwich and Newport, but not so much for West Warwick. This is Main Street revitalization only if you are okay with the West Warwicks of the world being left behind.


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